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研究生:鍾秉融
研究生(外文):Chung, Ping Jung
論文名稱:人口轉型與人類發展:一個跨國分析
論文名稱(外文):Demographic Transition and Human Development: A Cross-National Analysis
指導教授:陳正和陳正和引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chen, Jeng He
口試委員:張漢音沈幼蓀
口試委員(外文):Chang, Han YinSen, Yow Suen
口試日期:2011-05-02
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:輔仁大學
系所名稱:社會學系碩士班
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:社會學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2011
畢業學年度:99
語文別:中文
論文頁數:112
中文關鍵詞:第二次人口轉型人口轉型多樣性人類發展生育率
外文關鍵詞:second demographic transitiondemographic transition diversityhuman developmentfertility
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為什麼發展即是自由?Sen將「發展」視為一種擴張人們享有實質自由的過程。本研究問題旨在探討總生育率所代表的第一次人口轉型與第二次人口轉型是否與人類發展有關,並藉由比較完整的理論研究架構檢視總生育率對人類發展指數的影響,在此前提下探究人類發展的結構成因有其必要性。針對先前有關人類發展研究的不足與缺失,本研究結合社會變遷發展理論(現代化理論、依賴/世界體系理論、生態演化論、發展國家論)與人口轉型理論來說明對人類發展的影響。過去研究從經濟發展、經濟依賴、技術經濟遺產、國家力量與民主發展的觀點來檢視人類發展,並未考量人口轉型生育率變遷來檢證其對人類發展的作用。第二次人口轉型其人口轉型多樣性最能突顯Sen所強調的個人選擇自由之看法,本研究目的即在銜接兩次人口轉型的總生育率作為量度來說明對人類發展指數的影響。

本研究方法採用跨國研究之方式;研究對象主要涵蓋全球125個國家;統計技術選用縱貫研究之變項組迴歸分析。本研究發現總生育率對人類發展指數不論是單一時間點的水準或兩個時間點的變動均有一致顯著的負向作用,當以所有國家或非核心國家作為研究對象時亦不改變其結果。此外,本研究也支持經濟現代化理論、依賴/世界體系理論與生態演化論對人類發展的見解,且模型在納入總生育率後經濟發展、貿易依賴、投資依賴與農業密度對人類發展指數的作用力均下降充分顯示總生育率有其中介效果,亦符合先前研究針對社會變遷三大理論來說明對生育率影響的解釋。在完整整合架構檢視下,國家力量與民主發展均未呈現理論上預期的作用力。

本研究貢獻:(一)本研究可以提供人類發展指數一個反省,該量度組成上無法充分表達「發展即是自由」的概念;(二)本研究突顯一個完整整合的架構對瞭解人類發展的重要性;(三)在迴歸模型妥善規劃下有助於避免虛假關係,這使得晚近研究所強調的國家力量與民主發展,在本研究架構檢視下對人類發展指數沒有理論預期作用力;(四)先前研究並未有系統地連結人口轉型與人類發展的關係,忽略銜接兩次人口轉型的總生育率才是帶動人類發展的主要力量;(五)社會歷經兩次人口轉型所衍生的人口轉型多樣性是瞭解人類發展的重要關鍵,未來研究可以考慮進一步比較不同人口轉型階段之下與人類發展之間的關聯。

Why do some countries have a high level of human development? One important explanation is that demographic transition fosters human development. Proponents of this perspective argue that fertility transition represents demographic transition, culture transition, social forms transition, social ecology transition, and social change that enhances human development. The typical response to this issue was that economic development, economic dependency, techno-ecological heritage, state strength, and democracy development influence human development. Earlier works on structural determinants of human development failed to take into account the changes brought about by fertility transition as a proximate factor, this study represents a very important effort in trying to linking the relationship between demographic transition and human development both in terms of theory development, research, and policy implications. An integrated model to account for cross-national variation in human development was proposed, including core concepts from modernization, dependency/world system, ecological-evolutionary, developmental state, and demographic transition perspectives. Based on a cross-lagged effects regression analysis using a sample of 125 countries, fertility has the expected adverse effects on human development, even adequately controlling for the effects of relevant alternative explanatory variables. Demographic transition is causally related to human development rather than state strength, democratic development, globalization or international migration as reported in recent literature. The findings support the integrated model proposed, the limitations of the study and the suggestions for future research are further discussed.
目錄
第壹章 緒論 1
第貳章 理論文獻回顧 4
第一節 社會變遷發展理論與生活品質的研究 4
一、 現代化理論與生活品質 4
二、 依賴/世界體系理論與生活品質 6
三、 生態演化論與生活品質 9
四、 發展國家論與生活品質 10
第二節 社會變遷發展理論對於生活品質解釋的不足 12
第三節 生活品質與人類發展其概念上的差異 15
第四節 人口轉型與人類發展 17
一、 第一次人口轉型、第二次人口轉型與人類發展 18
二、 文化轉型與人類發展 24
三、 社會形式轉型與人類發展 29
四、 社會生態轉型與人類發展 33
五、 經濟發展、經濟依賴、技術經濟遺產、生育率與人類發展 37
第參章 研究方法 42
第一節 研究架構與分析策略 42
一、 研究架構 42
二、 分析策略 43
第二節 資料來源與變項定義 44
一、 資料來源 44
二、 變項定義 44
第三節 研究假設 48
一、 人口轉型理論變項與人類發展之關係 48
二、 社會變遷發展理論變項與人類發展之關係 48
第四節 國家分群標準 50
第五節 樣本的基本特性 50
第肆章 統計結果與分析 52
第一節 相關分析 52
第二節 迴歸分析 55
一、 經濟發展、經濟依賴與技術經濟遺產對人類發展之影響 55
二、 人口轉型、國家力量與民主發展對人類發展之影響 58
三、 所有國家與非核心國家之比較 62
第伍章 結論與討論 71
第一節 本研究之發現 71
第二節 本研究之理論涵義 75
第三節 本研究之貢獻 79
一、 一個人類發展指數的省思 80
二、 一個完整理論架構的思考 80
三、一個完整路徑規劃的思考 80
四、 一個社會人口觀點的思考 81
五、 第二次人口轉型、第二現代與人類發展其概念上的整合 81
第四節 本研究之限制與建議 82
參考文獻 83
附 錄 99
附錄一 自變項與依變項的樣本特性 100
附錄二 對數轉換後的樣本特性 101
附錄三 總生育率與人類發展指數的散佈圖 102
附錄四 變項組迴歸分析的變異數膨脹因子與條件值 103
附錄五 原始編碼資料 104

圖表目錄
圖 2-1 研究架構 42
表 4-1 自變項與依變項之零階相關 54
表 4-2 前置變項、中介變項與遞延依變項之零階相關 54
表 4-3 影響人類發展指數變動結構成因之變項組迴歸分析 67
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