( 您好!臺灣時間:2021/05/09 13:56
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  


論文名稱(外文):The Research of the Firm Growth Analysisof the Insurance Industry in U.S.A.
指導教授(外文):Chu Hsiao-Ping
外文關鍵詞:Gibrat’s LawNon-Stationaryinsurance companiesPanel SURADF Tests
  • 被引用被引用:1
  • 點閱點閱:194
  • 評分評分:系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔
  • 下載下載:15
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
過去對廠商成長是否與廠商的規模無關的研究,主要是利用IPS與MADF來檢定。然而,因使用一致的落遲檢定,容易造成偏誤的結果。本研究主要利用Breuer et al. (2001)的Panel SURADF檢定,分析美國保險產業中的廠商成長是否獨立於保險公司的規模,並驗證Gibrat’s (1931)所提出的吉伯特法則。在樣本選擇上,本研究利用美國保險產業1990年至2007年間的淨資產,來檢定10家在美國的人生保險廠商以及30間財產險保險廠商。實證結果發現,在美國的人生保險廠商中,10家有7家檢定出具有恆定性以及在財產險保險廠商中,30家有18家廠商檢定出具有恆定性,顯示美國保險產業與財產險保險產業,大都不符合吉伯特法則(Gibrat’s Law),美國保險產業與財產險保險產業的規模與成長率有關。
In this study, the newly-developed Panel SURADF tests advanced by Breuer et al. (2001) are used to investigate whether the growth rate of American insurance companies is independent of their size, as postulated by Gibrat’s (1931) Law of Proportionate Effects. Time-series data for the net assets of 10 life insurance companies and 30 property-casualty insuarance companies in U.S.A. during the 1990 to 2007 period are used. Whereas other panel-based unit root tests are joint tests of a unit root for all members of a panel and are incapable of determining the mix of I(0) and I(1) series in a panel setting, the Panel SURADF tests investigate a separate unit root null hypothesis for each individual panel member and are, therefore, able to identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes. The empirical results from several panel-based unit root tests indicate that the net assets of all firms studied here are non-stationary, implying that Gibrat’s Law holds for all firms; however, Breuer et al.’s (2001) Panel SURADF tests unequivocally indicate that Gibrat’s Law is only valid for 3 of life insurance companies and 12 of property- casualty insurance companies.
目 錄
中文摘要 ii
英文摘要 iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 7
第三節 本文架構 8
第四節 研究流程 9
第二章 文獻探討 10
第一節 保險的起源 10
第二節 美國保險產業 10
第三節 美國保險仲介制度 15
第四節 美國保險仲介制度分析 19
第五節 美國投保現況 22
第六節 廠商成長理論模型介紹 24
第七節 Gibrat’s Law與廠商成長 27
第三章 研究方法 30
第一節 資料的選取 30
第一節  Panel 單跟檢定 32
第四章 資料分析 36
第一節 基本統計量描述 36
第二節 Panel單根檢定 38
第三節 廠商成長分析 40
第五章 結論 45
第一節 結論與建議 45
第二節 管理意涵 49
第三節 研究限制與未來方向 50
參考文獻 51

表1-1 2007年全球20大保險國家 4
表1-2 2007年全球20大產險國家 5
表 1-3 2007年全球20大人身保險國家 6
表2-1 美國投保率 22
表2-2 投保普及率 23
表2-3 理論文獻回顧 26
表3-1 美國人身保險廠商 30
表3-2 美國產物保險廠商 31
表4-1 敘述統計分析:ln(淨資產)為人生保險公司1990年至2007年 36
表4-2 敘述統計分析:ln(淨資產)財產保險公司1990年至2007年 37
表4-3 美國人身保險產業單跟檢定1990-2007 39
表4-4 美國財產保險產業單跟檢定保險公司1990-2007 39
表4-5 美國人身保險公司(淨資產)SURADF單跟檢定1990至2007年 41
表4-6 美國產物保險公司(淨資產)SURADF單跟檢定1990至2007年 42
表4-7 2007年全球保險密度 43
表4-8 2007年全球保險滲透度 44
表5-1 美國人身保險公司(淨資產)SURADF單跟檢定1990至2007年 46
表5-2 美國產物保險公司(淨資產)SURADF單跟檢定1990至2007年 47
表5-3 美國保險產業符合Gibrat’s Law的家數與廠商 48

圖1-1 研究流程圖
Baumol, W, 1971. Environmental prolection, internationcil spillovers and trade. Wicksell Lectures 1971. Stockholm:Almqvist & Wiksell.
Baumol, W.J. (1962),“On the Theory of Expansion of the Firm ”U The American Economic ReviewU, 52, 5, 1078-1087.
Breuer, J. B., McNown, R., & Wallace, M. S. (2001). Misleading inferences from panel unit-root tests with an illustration from purchasing power parity. Review of International Economics, 9(3), 482-493.
Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., Barrio-Castro, T., Lopez-Bazo, e., (2005). Breaking the panels: an application to the GDP per capita. Econometrics Journal 8, 159-175.
Chen J. R. & Lu W. C. (2003). Panel unit root test of firm size and its growth. Applied Economics Letters, 10, 343-345.
Clark, J.S. & Stabler, J. C. (1991) Gibrat’s law and the growth of Canadian cities, Urban Studies, 28, 635-639.
Dunne, P. and A. Hughes. (1994),“Age, Size, Growth and Survival: UK Companies in the 1980s”, UThe Journal of Industrial EconomicsU, 42,2, 115–140.
Evans, D.S. (1987). Tests of alternative theories of firm growth. Journal of Political Economy, 95, 657-674.
Gibrat, R. (1931). Les Inequalities Economiques. Recueil Sirey, Paris.
Hall, B. (1987). The relationship between firm size and firm growth in the US manufacturing sector. Journal of Industrial Economics, 35, 583-606.
Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. The Econometrics Journal 3, 148-161.
Hardi, Kaddour. (2001). Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data, Econometrics Journal, 3, 148-161.
Hart, P.E. & Oulton, N. (1996). The size and growth of firms. Economic Journal 106, 1242-1252.
Harris, R. & Trainor, M. (2005) Plant-Level Analysis Using the ARD: Another Look at Gibrat’s Law. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 52(3), 492-518.
Im, K.S., Pesaran, H.M., Shin, Y., 1997. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Discussion Paper, University of Cambridge.
Im, K.S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels, Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
Jovanovic, B.(1982), “Selection and Evolution of Industry”, UEconometricaU , 50, 3 , 649–670.
Kumar, M. S. (1985). Growth, acquisition activity and firm size: evidence from the United Kingdom. Journal of Industrial Economics, 33, 327-338.
Kuznets, Simon(1955),”Economic growth and income inequality”, American Economic Review 45,1-28。
Levin, A., Lin, C.F. & Chu, C-S (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.
Maddala, G. S. and Wu, S. (1997) A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test, Manuscript, Ohio State University.
Maddala, G. S. & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631-65.
Mansfield, E. (1962). Entry, Gibrat’s Law, Innovation, and the growth of firms. American Economic Review, 52, 1023-1051.
Marris,R. and A.Wood (1972) , The Corporate Economy.Harvard University Press.
38.Marcus,M.(1969),“A Note on the Determinants of the Growth of Firms and Gibrat’s Law,” Canadian Journal of Economics,2:580-589.
Monte, A. D. & Papahni, E. (2003). R&D and the growth of firms: empirical analysis of a panel of Italian firms. Research Policy, 32, 1003-1014.
Mueller,W.J.(1962).Carbonic anhydrase, diuretics and egg shell formaiton. Poultry Sci. 41:1792-1796
O’Connell, P.G.J. (1998). The overvaluation of purchasing power parity. Journal of International Economics, 44, pp1-20.
Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361-1401.
Simon, H.A. and C.P. Bonini(1958), “The Size Distribution of Business Firms”, UThe American Economic ReviewU ,48,4, 607– 617.
Singh, A & Whittington, G. (1975). The size and growth of firms. Review of Economic Studies, 42, 15-26.
Taylor, M., & Sarno, L. (1998). The behavior of real exchanges during the post-Bretton Woods period. Journal of International Economics, 46, 281-312.
Tschoegl, A. E. (1983). Size, growth and transnationality among the world’s largest banks. Journal of Business, 56, 187-201.
Utton, M.A. (1971). The effect of mergers on concentration: UK manufacturing industry 1954-68. Journal of Industrial Economics, 20, 42-58.
Vining, D. R. (1976) Autocorrelated growth rates and the Pareto law: a further analysis, Journal of Political Economy, 84, 369-380.
Williamson. (1971). “The Vertical Integration of Production: Market Failure Considerations.” American Economic Review 61: 112-23.
Zellner, A. (1962). An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57, 348-368.
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
系統版面圖檔 系統版面圖檔