臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究對中國大陸房地產市場設立需求及供給函數，並使用中國大陸2001 到2009 年的省級資料進行研究分析，以探討中國大陸房地產市場的所得彈性、價格彈性與貸款成數對中國大陸房地產市場供給與需求的影響。

經由實證估計出來的所得彈性值域為1.77 ~ 3.00，價格彈性值域為0.08 ~ -0.80。相較於過往的文獻與研究，估計到的彈性較高，顯現出即便中國大陸房價持續飆漲，民眾仍肯購置房產，且房價飆漲對於房地產市場的需求量影響有限，乃因民眾對於未來的經濟情勢持樂觀的態度。

而貸款成數方面，在貸放資金大增的環境下，對於中國大陸的房地產需求及供給市場大抵而言有顯著影響，而貸款成數的增加也使得房地產需求及供給量跟隨增加。

The research constructed the demand and supply function for the market of China's real estate, and used the provincial data in China from 2001 to 2009 to analysis. Based on the information, we discussed the income elasticity and the price elasticity, and furthermore the impacts of the percentage of loans on the China's real estate market.

According to the empirical estimate, the range of income elasticity was from 1.77 to 3.00, and for the price elasticity, it was from 0.08 to -0.80. Compare with those previous studies, the higher level of elasticity represented that although the real estate price continued soaring in China, people were still willing to purchase. Moreover, the soaring price had a limited influence in the demand of real estate market, and the main reason was that people were all optimistic about the future.

To the percentage of loans, in this environment of the sharp increase in money lending, we found that it affect the demand and the supply market of real estate significantly, and with the relaxation of credit control, it led the demand and the supply of real estate to increase.

第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………...1
第一節 研究背景………………………………………………………...1
第二節 研究動機………………………………………………………...5

第二章 房地產市場所得彈性、價格彈性
與貸款成數之相關文獻回顧………………………………………...6
第一節 住宅需求之價格彈性與所得彈性相關文獻探討……….……..7
第二節 貸款成數相關文獻探討……………………………………….12
第三節 文獻回顧結語………………………………………………….16

第三章 中國大陸房地產市場研究方法與資料變數…………...…………..18
第一節 房地產市場需求函數及供給函數實證模型之設定……….…19
第二節 中國大陸房地產市場需求函數及供給函數
之資料變數來源及處理……………………………………….23
第三節 中國大陸房地產市場需求函數及供給函數
之相關變數敘述統計量分析………………………………….27

第四章 中國大陸房地產市場所得彈性、價格彈性
與貸款成數之實證分析…………………………………………….34
第一節 中國大陸房地產市場需求及供給函數實證結果之探討….…36
第二節 中國大陸房地產市場所得彈性與價格彈性
實證結果之探討……………………………………………….44
第三節 中國大陸房地產市場貸款成數影響之探討……...…………..47

第五章 結論………………………………………………………………….50

參考文獻……………………………………………………………………...52

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