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研究生:馮浩峻
研究生(外文):Fong, Hochon
論文名稱:2008年馬來西亞大選─雪蘭莪州華裔選民投票行為之研究
論文名稱(外文):The Chinese voting behaviour of 2008 General Election in West Malaysia: the Case of Selangor Darul Ehsan
指導教授:李美賢李美賢引用關係
指導教授(外文):Lee, Mei Hsien
口試委員:廖達琪顧長永
口試委員(外文):Samuel C. Y. Ku
口試日期:2011-07-12
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立暨南國際大學
系所名稱:東南亞研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:區域研究學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2011
畢業學年度:99
語文別:中文
論文頁數:94
中文關鍵詞:馬來西亞政治/選舉投票行為華裔選民308事件
外文關鍵詞:Malaysia politics/electionVoting behaviorChinese voterIncident 308
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:3
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  • 下載下載:37
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
2008年3月馬來西亞舉行了第十二屆全國大選,其選舉結果是讓人震驚的,華、巫、印三大族群的選民同時轉向,導致國民陣線失去了三分之二的多數優勢。選後一些政治學者試圖把選舉結果和選前的某些因素做結合,他們皆認為造成「308事件」的因素包括:民生議題、社會議題、另類媒體、安華效應和候選人形象左右了選民的投票決定。

本研究主要是以社會心理學研究途徑去探討2008年馬來西亞雪蘭莪州華裔選民投票行為。馬來西亞華裔選民的投票行為是否受到選民的特徵,如:世代、性別、居住地和社經地位的影響。308大選和前兩屆大選的選民行為有了強烈的變化;此次選舉中,馬來西亞華裔選民投票抉擇的依據是什麼?是政黨認同、抑或是議題導向、候選人素質,或是更重要的族群政治的考量。

本研究使用「問卷調查」和質化的「焦點團體訪談」收集相關數據。經回收296份問卷和舉行三場不同世代的焦點訪談後,研究發現選民個人特徵如:世代、性別、居住地和社經地位皆會影響選民的投票依據。

本研究的章節安排如下,本文先在緒論中,把研究的緣起、問題意識、研究概況、文獻和研究方法依序逐一編排。第二章則是以政黨、華團和選舉的面向探討西馬華人政治參與的歷史演進過程;第三章是理論和研究假設;第四章是研究發現和討論;第五章則是結論,提出在研究過程的限制和改進的方向。

The 12th General Election of Malaysia is held on March 8, 2008. The result of the election is surprising, Some Malay’s, Chinese’s and Indian’s are swing their vote from ruling party to the opposition party. After the election, the ruling coalition’s (Barisan National) losing its two-thirds majority advantage in Parliament. Furthermore some political Scholars are trying to explain the election result with the factors of pre-election; the pre-election factors like price hike, social safety, alternative media, Anwar Ibrahim and candidate’s orientation. They believe the voting decision process of this election may affected by the pre-election factors.

This study will adopt a research approach of Social psychology to analysis the voting behaviour of Selangor Chinese voters in 2008. Did the voting behavior of Malaysian Chinese are affected by their own characteristic, such like generation, gender, living area and social-economic position. If the General Election of 2008 compared with 1999 and 2004, the voting behavior had been a change. Which orientation did the Chinese voters considered in 2008? The party alliance orientation, issue orientation, quality of candidate or race orientation.

This study is using the survey and focus-group analysis to collecting data. After collecting 296 sets questionnaire and held three different generation focus-group. This study finds that characteristic like generation, gender, living area, social position will affect Chinese voters voting orientation.

Overall, there are five chapters in this thesis. The introductory chapter will describe the research background, research question, literature review, research method and research limitation of the study. The political participation history of West Malaysian Chinese will take place in chapter 2, the research structure and hypothesis in chapter 3 and research finding and discussion in chapter 4. Lastly in chapter 5, the conclusion will discuss the limitation of the research process and improvement suggestion for the future studies.

目次
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究緣起與問題意識 1
壹 2008年馬來西亞308事件 1
貳 馬來西亞308事件的特殊性與重大意義 4
第二節 文獻探討 7
壹 投票行為研究 7
貳 馬來西亞選舉研究 8
參 馬來西亞華裔選民投票行為研究 9
肆 「308事件」成因之解釋 10
第三節 研究方法與個案選擇 12
壹 量化研究 12
貳 質化研究 16
參 個案選擇 17
第四節 研究限制 18
第二章 西馬華人政治參與史 19
第一節 政黨 19
第二節 華人社團 22
第三節 選舉 24
第三章 理論架構與研究假設 33
第一節 社會心理學與投票行為 33
壹 依變項 33
第二節 研究假設 40
壹 自變項 40
第四章 研究發現與討論 47
第一節 量化 48
壹 描述性統計 48
第二節 研究發現 51
壹 選民世代差異會影響投票行為 51
貳 選民性別差異會影響投票行為 55
參 選民居住地差異會影響投票行為 57
肆 選民社經地位的不同會影響投票行為 60
第五章 結論 63
第一節 研究成果與發現 63
第二節 研究限制與改進 66
參考文獻 68
附錄 78
附錄一 中文問卷 78
附錄二 英文問卷 83
附錄三 馬來文問卷 88
附錄四 焦點團體訪談大綱 92









表次
表1-1:1999、2004和2008年馬來西亞全國大選國會席次成績 2
表1-2:2010雪州華裔男女和年齡交叉分析表(預估) 15
表1-3:雪州華裔選民樣本分佈狀況表 15
表4-1:受訪者世代之次數分配表 48
表4-2:受訪者性別之次數分配表表 49
表4-3:受訪者居住地之次數分配表 50
表4-4:受訪者社經地位之次數分配表 51
表4-5:世代變項交叉分析及檢定表 52
表4-6:性別變項交叉分析及檢定表 55
表4-7:居住地變項交叉分析及檢定表 58
表4-8:社經地位變項交叉分析及檢定表 60





















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Department of Statistic Malaysia 2009
http://www.statistics.gov.my

Selangor State Investment Center
〈http://www.ssic.com.my/〉


Malaysia Department of Prime Minister, SMPKE 1995-2008 General Election Result.〈http://www2.pmo.gov.my/election/index.asp〉

2010年馬來西亞人口估計表
http://www.malaysiaeconomy.net/english/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=191:estimated-population-of-selangor-2010&catid=38:population&Itemid=53


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