(3.235.25.169) 您好!臺灣時間:2021/04/18 04:49
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果

詳目顯示:::

我願授權國圖
: 
twitterline
研究生:黃振星
研究生(外文):Chan-Seng Wong
論文名稱:同化FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC及Follow-on掩星觀測資料對颱風預報之影響
論文名稱(外文):Assimilation of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC and Follow-on radio occultation data and its impact on typhoon prediction
指導教授:黃清勇黃清勇引用關係
指導教授(外文):Ching-Yuang Huang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中央大學
系所名稱:大氣物理研究所
學門:自然科學學門
學類:大氣科學學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2011
畢業學年度:99
語文別:中文
論文頁數:108
中文關鍵詞:掩星觀測資料同化模擬預報觀測系統模擬實驗
外文關鍵詞:OSSEGPS radio occultationdata assimilationsimulation
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:4
  • 點閱點閱:144
  • 評分評分:系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔
  • 下載下載:12
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
為了提升數值天氣預報準確度,改善模式初始場是一項重要關鍵。資料同化技術能結合更多額外的觀測資料,使得天氣預報模式的初始場更接近大氣的實際狀態。本研究使用三維變分同化(Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation, 3DVAR)方法及四維變分同化(Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation, 4DVAR)方法,將福爾摩沙衛星三號(FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC)的衛星掩星觀測(GPS RO)資料同化於中尺度模式,以了解同化衛星掩星資料對於改善颱風預報準確度的影響。
選取的颱風個案為2009年中度颱風莫拉克(Morakot),共分成兩組實驗。第一組實驗是討論虛擬渦旋資料的同化方式與颱風初始結構的關係,結果顯示同化虛擬渦旋資料有效地改善颱風初始強度、結構與中心定位,若使用三小時的同化窗區,初始颱風能出現較強較高的眼牆,且具有不對稱性的風場。第二組實驗則是探討同化FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC的GPS RO資料對大氣環境的改善程度及討論對颱風模擬的影響,同時同化GPS RO和虛擬渦旋資料使得駛流場和颱風本身更接近真實,所以其模擬結果的颱風路徑、強度及降雨量都有所改善。
另外,本研究使用觀測系統模擬實驗(Observing Systems Simulation Experiment, OSSE),評估未來COSMIC-II及其他GPS RO計畫(如:伽利略全球衛星定位系統)對侵臺颱風預報的影響。改良後的二維射線追蹤模式能有效降低非局地大氣折射率的誤差,提高OSSE實驗中資料的真實性。觀測系統模擬實驗的結果顯示模式範圍內的GPS RO資料數量越多,就能得到更多的修正,進而降低模式初始場的誤差,對模式預報準確度有正面的影響。
Improving the model initial analysis is crucial to the prediction of weather forecast model. Assimilation with the observations may help reduce the discrepancies between the model initial guess and the true atmospheric state, thus improving the model initial conditions. This study uses three- and four-dimensional variational method, namely WRF 3DVAR and MM5 4DVAR to assimilate FORMOSAT-3/ COSMIC GPS radio occultation (RO) refractivity data to understand their impacts on typhoon prediction.
Typhoon Morakot (2009) is selected in this study. Two sets of experiments have been designed. The first set of experiment discusses the relationship between the bogus-vortex data assimilation (BDA) method and the initial structure of Morakot. The results have shown that the BDA using MM5 4DVAR is robust and can significantly improve the initial intensity, the structure, and the center position of the Morakot. With a longer three-hour data assimilation window, the initial typhoon can form a stronger and higher eye wall with asymmetric wind. The second set of experiment investigates the impact of assimilating GPS RO data on the improvement of model initial analysis and typhoon prediction. Assimilating both GPS RO and bogus vortex data makes the steering flow and typhoon much closer to the observed. Hence, the typhoon track, intensity and the associated rainfall in Taiwan have been improved in this simulation.
This study also aims at the potential impacts of prospective RO measures from US GPS (COSMIC-II) and other navigation satellites (GALILEO) through the Observing Systems Simulation Experiment (OSSE) to evaluate their impacts Morakot typhoon prediction based on WRF 3DVAR and MM5 4DVAR. A modified version of two- dimensional ray tracing model effectively reduces the error of the derived RO refractivity for use in OSSE. Results of both OSSEs with WRF 3DVAR and MM5 4DVAR clearly illustrate that more GPS RO data (e.g., COSMIC-II plus GALILEO) can provide more amendments to the model initial states, thereby reducing their errors and leading to a positive impact on typhoon forecast.
中文摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
誌謝 iv
目錄 v
圖表說明 vii
第一章、 緒論 1
1-1 前言 1
1-2 文獻回顧 2
1-3 研究動機 4
第二章、 模式系統介紹與資料處理過程 5
2-1 MM5模式系統 5
2-2 四維變分同化系統 5
2-3 虛擬渦旋 7
2-4 全球定位系統之掩星觀測 9
第三章、 莫拉克颱風模擬 12
3-1 個案介紹 12
3-2 實驗設計 13
3-3 模擬結果與討論 14
第四章、 觀測系統模擬實驗 19
4-1 射線追蹤模式 19
4-2 WRF模式系統之觀測系統模擬實驗 21
4-2-1 WRF模式系統 22
4-2-2 三維變分同化系統 23
4-2-3 實驗設計 24
4-2-4 模擬結果與討論 25
4-3 MM5模式系統之觀測系統模擬實驗 27
4-3-1 實驗設計 27
4-3-2 模擬結果與討論 28
第五章、 總結與未來展望 31
參考文獻 33
附表與附圖 38
王潔如,2004:侵台颱風之GPS 折射率3DVAR 資料同化及數值模擬。國立中央大學,大氣物理研究所,碩士論文,108頁。
吳俊澤,2007:利用MM5 4DVAR 模式同化掩星折射率資料及虛擬渦漩探討颱風數值模擬之影響。國立中央大學,大氣物理研究所,碩士論文,70頁。
呂佳龍,2010:同化GPS掩星及其他觀測資料對梅雨模擬之影響。國立中央大學,大氣物理研究所,碩士論文,118頁。
周濤,2006:利用WRF3DVAR 同化GPS 折射率資料探討對於颱風預報的影響。國立中央大學,大氣物理研究所,碩士論文,89頁。
迮嘉欣,2009:資料同化對臺灣地區颱風和梅雨模擬之影響。國立中央大學,大氣物理研究所,碩士論文,81頁。
陳舒雅,2008:GPS掩星觀測資料同化及對區域天氣預報模擬之影響。國立中央大學,大氣物理研究所,博士論文,137頁
黃清勇、朱延祥,2004:FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC 科學研究簡介。大氣科學,32,293-328。
黃清勇、周濤、郭勉之,2007:GPS掩星折射率資料同化對於颱風模擬之影響。大氣科學,35,135-150。
黃清勇、王潔如,2008:衛星遙測資料三維變分同化對於颱風模擬的影響。大氣科學,36,249-273。
曾忠一,2006:大氣科學中的反問題。 國立編譯館主編及出版,1288頁。
蔡金成,2009:衛星資料與虛擬渦旋四維變分同化對颱風數值模擬的影響。國立中央大學,大氣物理研究所,碩士論文,87頁。
Anthes, R. A., and T. T. Warner, 1978: Development of hydrodynamic models suitable for air pollution and other mesometeorological studies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, 1045–1078.
Anthes, R. A., C. Rocken, and Y.-H. Kuo, 2000: Applications of COSMIC to meteorology and climate. Terr. Atmos. Oceanic Sci., 11, 115-156.
Chen, S.-H., F. Vandenberghe, and C.-Y. Huang, 2006: Error characteristics of GPS retrieved refractivity using a simulation study. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 477-496.
Chen, S.-Y., C.-Y. Huang, Y.-H. Kuo, Y.-R. Guo and S. Sokolovskiy, 2009: Typhoon predictions with GPS radio occultation data assimilations by WRF-VAR using local and nonlocal operators. Terr. Atmos. Oceanic Sci., 20, 133–154.
Cucurull, L., Y.-H. Kuo, D. Barker, and S. R. H. Rizvi, 2006: Assessing the impact of simulated COSMIC GPS radio occultation data on weather analysis over the Antarctic: A case study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3283-3296.
Cucurull, L., J.C. Derber, R. Treadon and R.J. Purser, 2007: Assimilation of Global Positioning System radio occultation observations into NCEP’s Global Data Assimilation System. Mon Wea. Rev., 135, 3174-3193.
Cucurull, L., J.C. Derber, R. Treadon and R.J. Purser, 2008: Preliminary impact studies using global positioning system radio occultation profiles at NCEP. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1865-1877.
Cucurull, L. and J.C. Derber, 2008: Operational implementation of COSMIC observations into NCEP’s global data assimilation system. Wea. Forecasting. 23, 702-711.
Cucurull, L., 2010: Improvement in the Use of an Operational Constellation of GPS Radio Occultation Receivers in Weather Forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 749–767.
Fujita, T., 1952: Pressure distribution within a typhoon. Geophys. Mag., 23, 437-451.
Grell, G. A., J. Dudhia and D. R. Stauffer, 1994: A description of the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5). NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-398+STR, 117 pp.
Healy S. and J.-N. Thépaut, 2006: Assimilation experiments with CHAMP GPS radio occultation measurements. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 132, 605–623.
Healy, S. B., 2008: Forecast impact experiment with a constellation of GPS radio occultation receivers. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 9, doi:10.1002/asi.169.
Huang, C.-Y., Y.-H. Kuo, S.-H. Chen and F. Vandenberghe, 2005: Improvements on typhoon forecast with assimilated GPS occultation refractivity. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 931–953.
Kravtsov, Y. A., and Y. I. Orlov, Geometrical Optics of Inhomogeneous Media, 312 pp., Springer-Verlag, New York, 1990.
Kueh, M.-T., C.-Y. Huang, S.-Y. Chen, S.-H. Chen and C.-J. Wang 2008: Impact of GPS radio occultation soundings on prediction of Typhoon Bilis (2006) landfalling Taiwan. Terr. Atmos. Oceanic Sci., 20, 115–131.
Kuo, Y.-H., X. Zou, and W. Huang, 1997: The impact of GPS data on the prediction of an extratropical cyclone: An observing system simulation experiment. J. Dyn. Atmos. Ocean, 27, 413-439.
Kuo, Y.-H., X. Zou, S.-J. Chen, Y.-R. Guo, W. Huang, R. Anthes, D. Hunt, M. Exner, C. Rocken, S. Sokilovskiy, 1998: A GPS/MET sounding through an intense upper-level front, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 79, 617-626.
Kuo, Y.-H., T.-K. Wee, S. Sokolovskiy, C. Rocken, W. Schreiner, D. Hunt, and R. A.
Anthes, 2004: Inversion and error estimation of GPS radio occultation data. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, 507-531.
Kuo, Y.-H., W. S. Schreiner, J. Wang, D. L. Rossiter, Y. Zhang, 2005: Comparison of GPS radio occultation soundings with radiosondes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L05817, doi:10.1029/2004GL021443.
Kuo, Y.-H., H. Liu, Y.-R. Guo, C.-T. Terng, and Y.-T. Lin, 2008: Impact of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Data on Typhoon and Mei-yu Prediction, National Taiwan University (NTU) Department of Atmospheric Sciences 50th Anniversary Book
Kursinki, E. R., G. A. Hajj, K. R. Hardy, L. J. Romans, and J. T. Schofield, 1995:Observing tropospheric water vapor by radio occultation using the global positioning system, Geophs. Res. Letter, 22, 2365-2368.
Leroy, S. S., 1997: Measurement of geopotential height by GPS radio occultation, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 23,429-23,465.
Park K. amd X. Zou, 2004: Toward developing an objective 4DVAR BDA scheme for hurricane initialization based on TPC observed parameters. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2054-2069.
Parrish, D. F., and J. C. Derber, 1992: The national meteorological center’s spectral statistical-interpolation analysis system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 1747-1763.
Rocken, C., R. Anthes, M. Exner, D. Hunt, S. Sokolovskiy, R. Ware, M. Gorbunov, W. Schreiner, D. Feng, B. Herman, Y.-H. Kuo, and X. Zou, 1997: Analysis and validation of GPS/MET data in the neutral atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 29849-29866.
Sokolovskiy, S., Y.-H. Kuo, and W. Wang, 2005a: Assessing the accuracy of linearized observation operator for assimilation of the Abel-retrieved refractivity: Case simulation with high-resolution weather model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 2200-2212.
Thayer, D., 1974: An improved equation for the radio refractive index of air. Radio Sci., 9, 803-807.
Ware, R. et al., 1996: GPS sounding of the atmosphere from low eatth orbit: preliminary results. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 19-40.
Wee, T.-K., and Y.-H. Kuo, 2005: Assimilation of CHAMP and SAC-C radio occultation data using MM5 4D-VAR. Joint NCAR/MMM CSU/CIRA Data Assimilation Workshop, Sept. 19th 2005, in Boulder, Colorado.
Zou, X., Y.-H. Kuo, and Y.-R. Guo, 1995: Assimilation of atmospheric radio refractivity using a nonhydrostatic adjoint model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2229-2249.
Zou, X.,W. Huang and Q. Xiao, 1997: A user’s guide to the MM5 adjoint modeling system. NCAR TN-437+IA. MMM division, NCAR, 92pp. (available from UCAR Communications, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO80307.)
Zou, X., F. Vandenberghe, B. Wang, M. E. Gorbunov, Y.-H. Kuo, S. Sokolovskiy, J. C. Chang, J. G. Sela, and R. Anthes, 1999: A raytracing operator and its adjoint for the use of GPS/MET refraction angle measurements. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 22301-22318.
QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
系統版面圖檔 系統版面圖檔