臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

Bass(1969)提出的擴散模型在日後的行銷學研究上被大量引用，但此擴散模型侷限在預測單一世代的銷售量，Norton and Bass(1987)則提出多世代擴散模型，強調不同世代產品間銷售量的替代效果，本研究則延續Kim, Chang and Shocker的模型，探討多世代以及跨產品的替代效果外，再更進一步地將所得變數加入此預測模型中以探討所得效果對於產品銷售量的影響。
本研究以CRT TV和LCD TV兩種產品為對象，最後得到LCD TV在本研究模型中有著比前兩個多世代擴散模型較高的配適度，顯示所得為影響消費者購買LCD TV產品的重要因素之一，另外我們也發現當每人平均所得增加時消費者對於19吋以下的電視機產品的購買也會增加，20吋以上的電視機產品則是減少購買。另外，加入所得變數的本研究模型其LCD TV19吋以下產品和CRT TV19吋以下產品則產生了替代效果。檢視兩產品的創新系數和模仿系數 可得知消費者購買CRT TV的行動受到外部效果的影響較大，而LCD TV則相反。
總和以上，本研究模型可提供相關業者更準確地預估銷售量，並且還可觀察多世代產品和跨產品間的替代關係，以及景氣變化時消費者對於產品的購買行為為何，當產品上市時則可以幫助業者做正確的行銷決策。

　From traditional CRT TV to new technology TV such as LCD TV, PDP TV and 3D TV, technology innovations make the TV market uncertainly, so developing a model that can forecast the market share is important , and that could help TV producers make well decisions in R&D、marketing 、human resource… etc. Bass (1969) proposed a diffusion model, but Bass just considered a single generation product. Norton and Bass (1987) modified the Bass model; they brought up a Multi-generation diffusion model. Kim, Chang and Shocker (2000) verified Norton and Bass model, considered market potential isn’t constant, instead is dynamics. Therefore, we focus on Kim, Chang and Shocker model, besides we add income variable to market potential function.

We use traditional color CRT TV and new technology LCD TV to examine substitution effect with intercategory and Multi-generation, and also observe income effect, in the end we got a much higher R-squared. We also found the CRT TV propensity to innovate is higher than that imitate, and LCD TV is opposite. Moreover, it’s positive effect with income to under 20-inch TV, above 20-inch TV is opposite. The conclusion can help producer to forecast the market share effectively and do right decisions.

中文摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
致謝詞 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 viii
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機 2
第三節 研究目的 3
第二章 文獻探討 4
第一節 創新擴散的定義 5
第二節 Bass擴散模型 6
第三節 Bass模型的修正 11
第四節 多世代擴散模型 16
第三章 研究方法 24
第一節 研究設計與架構 24
第二節 研究模型 27
第三節 參數估計法 31
第四章 實證分析 35
第一節 Norton and Bass多世代擴散模型 35
第二節 Kim Chang and Shocker連結不同產品之動態多世代擴散模型 39
第三節 修正後之本研究模型 47


第五章 結論與建議 55
第一節 研究結果與討論 55
第二節 行銷管理意涵 57
第三節 研究限制 60
第四節 後續研究建議 61
參考文獻 62

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参、網站部分
1.ITIS產業資訊網http://www.itis.org.tw/
2.資策會資訊市場情報中心http://mic.iii.org.tw/aisp/
3.經濟部統計處http://2k3dmz2.moea.gov.tw/gnweb/PublicService/wFrmMain.aspx