企業面臨瞬息萬變的競爭環境，紛紛導入企業資源規劃 (Enterprise Resource Planning；ERP)，ERP能將市場訊息與顧客需求等即時資訊快速回覆給企業管理階層，藉以增進企業營運效率。對於ERP的開發廠商而言，必須持續投入新的研發資源以達成企業管理的需求，並將開發風險降至最低，以獲取最大的利潤。
　　而這些軟體開發專案最終是否執行，在軟體的開發過程中雖然必須同時考慮時程、成本與品質三項因素，但一般而言，軟體專案管理者會基於市場先機的取得，排除因顧客需求或其他整合型計劃延遲等因素，而將開發時程列為最優先的考量。因此，開發時數是重要的關鍵決定要素之一，本研究直接以開發時數代表軟體專案之開發成本，除能真實反應公司內部投入專案的成本，也不會因為專案對外的報價折扣不一讓內部投入成本失真。
　　然而在專案初期因為資訊不充足，以及軟體產品具有客製化與客戶服務的特性，更增加了初始估算的困難性，因此，如何準確估算開發時數，是非常重要的任務，若專案成本估算過高會減低專案執行的可能性，相反的若估算低於實際開發成本，將侵蝕公司的營運績效。本研究以國內某大型ERP軟體公司近年開發之資訊系統為資料庫，應用線性迴歸、支援向量迴歸與類神經網路等資料探勘技術，以分類及推估方法建構並比較多種階層式時程推估模式，期在合理的準確度下，有效率地估算專案開發所需時數。本研究所提出之階層式推估模式，其估算能力比單一推估模式準確率更佳，可作為評估專案初期成本與價格的另一項參考依據，若再搭配其他專案評估方法一起運用，將有助於決策者於軟體專案評估時做更詳細之判斷。

　　Enterprises import ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) one after another due to facing an intense competitive environment. ERP can rapidly react to instant information such as the market information and customer demand for the management hierarchy of enterprises to improve the efficiency of business operations. In order to maximize profits, ERP system developers must persistently invest new R&D resources to achieve business management needs and minimize development risks.
　　However, software development project implementation ultimately implemented depends on several factors, including development time, cost and quality. But in general, software project managers’ consideration is based on market opportunities, thus set the development time as the highest priority consideration, and exclude customer demand or other factors such as integrated plans to delay. Therefore, the development time is one of the important key determinants, this study directly substituted the development time for software project development costs. It not only can truly reflect the project development costs but also have no distortions of the internal costs while offering different discounts for external clients.
　　The inadequate information in the early stages of the project, and software has features with customized and a customer service orientation, increasing the difficulty of the initial estimation. Therefore, how to estimate project development time during the early stage of development thus is an important task for software developers. If the estimated development cost of a project exceeds the expected cost, the probability of the project implementation is reduced; the opposite if the estimated cost is far significantly below the actual cost, the project will negatively impact firm’ business performance. This study employed information systems recently developed by a large domestic DRP developer as a database. Using Linear Regression and data mining techniques such as Support Vector Regression and Neural Network, this study applied classification and estimation methods to construct a hierarchical time-estimation model for software development projects and compare it with other models, in the hope of estimating project development time efficiently and accurately. Comparing with a single estimation model, the study proposed hierarchical time-estimation model has better estimation ability. The estimation result provides an important reference for project decision makers, it also increases their decision making quality.

摘要 i
Abstract ii
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 vii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2研究動機與目的 2
1.3研究範圍 3
1.4研究架構 4
第二章 文獻探討 5
2.1 ERP與軟體生命週期 5
2.1.1 ERP軟體產品簡介 5
2.1.2 軟體生命週期 7
2.2資料探勘簡介 12
2.2.1 資料探勘流程 14
2.2.2 分類與推估介紹 15
2.3資料探勘推估方法 16
2.3.1 類神經網路 16
2.3.2 支援向量迴歸 18
2.3.3 線性迴歸 21
2.4估算軟體專案開發之相關文獻 22
2.4.1 專家判斷法(Expert Judgement；EJ) 24
2.4.2 案例推理法(Case-Based Reasoning；CBR) 24
2.4.3 參數估算法(Parametric Estimating；PE) 25
2.4.4 作業基礎成本法(Activity-Based Costing；ABC) 26
2.4.5 功能點分析法(Function Point Analysis；FPA) 26
2.4.6 軟體估算方法比較 31
第三章 研究方法 33
3.1軟體專案開發推估程序 34
3.2個案資料簡介 35
3.3變數的定義 35
3.3.1 輸出變數 35
3.3.2 輸入變數 36
3.4推估模式選擇 39
3.4.1 類神經網路估算模式 40
3.4.2 支援向量迴歸估算模式 43
3.4.3 線性迴歸估算模式 45
3.5階層式分類與迴歸方法 47
3.5.1 構建分類與迴歸模型 48
3.5.2 預測流程 49
3.6估算能力評估方法 50
第四章 實驗結果 51
4.1各模型之平均錯誤率分析與比較 51
4.1.1 單一推估模式 51
4.1.2 階層式推估模式 53
4.1.3 十摺交叉驗證 54
4.1.4 統計t檢定 56
4.2結果討論 59
4.3適用範圍與限制 59
第五章 結論與建議 60
5.1研究結論 60
5.2研究貢獻 61
5.3後續研究建議與方向 62
參考文獻 64

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