臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

隨著供應鏈管理(Supply Chain Management, SCM)和製造策略在科技業應用下的蓬勃發展，服務型製造(Service-Added Manufacturing)顯得更為重要。
因此在一般的品牌廠中，售後服務除了自己部份經營外，為了降低整體供應鏈成本大多會選擇外包(Outsource)給售後服務公司，一方面可專注於本業，增加核心價值及競爭力，一方面也可讓售後服務公司全力做好客戶服務以提升客戶對品牌的忠誠度。售後服務公司支援服務流程鏈中的各個環節，提供詳盡的服務方案，包括元件及系統維修、逆物流(Reverse Logistics)、全球物流服務中心和庫存管理、產品生命周期規劃以及綜合資訊科技 (Information Technology, IT)解決方案，在服務過程中常常會遇到產品停產但仍需供應備用物料直到服務終止，此時便須做最終採購決策(Last Time Buy, LTB)買足一次所需的數量，一般作法參考過去需求量(Usage)及未來預估需求量導出購買物料數量，但因為未來需求的不確定性所以容易導致短缺或庫存過剩的問題發生，為了有效解決此問題，本研究建置出一LTB決策架構，以不確定情況下的決策模式及風險決策架構為基礎，使用決策樹(Decision Tree)和序列決策樹(Sequential Decision Tree)為工具搭配LTB決策模型幫助決策者做有系統的LTB決策方案，並以W公司作為個案進行實證研究，以驗證此架構之效度。

Under the great development of application about supply chain management and produce strategy, Service-Added Manufacturing is more impotant.
Thersfore, Brand owner in technology industry may outsource their after-sales service to Service Company in order to lower total supply chain cost. In this way, they can focus on their own core business and on the other hand they can gain customer loyalty though that. Service Company covers various levels of the service process chain and provides total solutions to Brand owner. The service includes full repair capability, reverse logistics, warehouse management, global service center, product life cycle plan and comprehensive IT solutions. During the service period, when product is phased-out, but Service Company still needs to supply enough demands to customers till the service ends. At this moment, Service Company must do Last Time Buy (LTB) for the future demands based on past usage and forecast. However, shortage or excess problems may occur due to high uncertainty of future demands. This research builds up the LTB decision structure based on uncertainty and risk structure. It uses decision tree and sequential tree to help decision makers do systematic LTB decision with LTB decision model. Finally, it takes the real case of W Company for studies and the result shows practical viability of LTB decision structure approach for troubleshooting.

目錄 i
圖目錄 iii
表目錄 v
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景及動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究範圍 4
1.4 研究架構 4
第二章 理論基礎 6
2.1 LTB方法 6
2.1.1 售後服務流程與售後服務公司及品牌廠關係 6
2.1.2 LTB 與售後服務關聯性 8
2.1.3 售後服務公司LTB作業流程 10
2.1.4 售後服務公司LTB決策法 10
2.2 存貨理論 12
2.3 供應鏈理論 16
2.4 不確定性模式決策 18
2.4.1 不確定情況決策分析方法 19
2.4.2 影響圖 20
2.4.3 風險性模式決策 21
2.4.4 決策樹 22
2.4.5 決策樹分析 22
2.4.6 風險評估與效度 23
第三章 LTB購置數量的決策模式 26
3.1 建置LTB數量購置決策架構 26
3.2 問題定義 27
3.2.1 架構LTB決策問題 28
3.3 確認LTB決策元素 29
3.4 構建LTB決策樹 30
3.5數值案例 36
第四章 實證研究 40
4.1 個案說明 40
4.1.1 個案公司背景介紹 40
4.1.2 個案公司問題說明 41
4.2 個案公司LTB結果 46
4.3 紫式決策架構LTB結果 49
4.3.1 問題定義 50
4.3.2 架構LTB決策 51
4.3.3 確認LTB決策元素 52
4.3.4 構建LTB決策樹 53
4.4 成果驗證 62
第五章 結論與未來研究方向 66
5.1 結論 66
5.2 未來研究方向 66
參考文獻 67

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