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研究生:陳虹妙
研究生(外文):Hong-Miao Chen
論文名稱:發光二極體產業分析
論文名稱(外文):An Industry Analysis of the LED Industry
指導教授:湯明哲湯明哲引用關係
口試委員:吳學良連勇智
口試日期:2011-07-08
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:企業管理碩士專班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2011
畢業學年度:99
語文別:英文
論文頁數:113
中文關鍵詞:發光二極體產業分析S-C-P (Structure-Conduct-Performance)模型替代品顯示器之背光源發光二極體照明價格競爭
外文關鍵詞:LED (light-emitting diode)S-C-P (Structure-Conduct-Performance)Industry analysisSubstituteDisplay backlightLED lightingPrice competition
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This study provides an in-depth analysis of the LED (light-emitting diode) industry based on a thorough S-C-P analysis. The LED industry is competitive due to the relatively low entry barriers, minimum product differentiation and product durability. The existence of low-price substitutes (e.g. conventional light sources) creates a price ceiling for LED products. In addition, customers are sensitive to prices. Given all these characteristics of the LED industry, we expect that price competition will become intensive when demand growth rate slows. As a result, the profit margins of the industry will be low in the long run.
The current growth driver of the LED industry is large LCD display backlight. The market of the large LCD display backlight is forecasted to reach saturation by 2013. Most of the LED industry participants believe that LED general lighting will be the next growth driver for the industry. Due to the high expectation of the demand for LED lighting, LED makers expand capacity aggressively, especially in China. To develop LED industry in China, Chinese government provides subsidies to LED makers to install new MOCVD machines. From 2009 to 2011, it is forecasted that the worldwide LED capacity will triple.
However, to successfully penetrate lighting market, LED has to compete with conventional light sources. The price of LED lighting is much higher than that of conventional lighting, which leads to a low customer acceptance rate of LED lighting even though LED lighting has lots of advantages over conventional lighting.
In this study, to forecast when LED lamps can significantly penetrate the lighting market, we base our estimation of payback period on the technology road map of U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE), and use one-year payback period as the criterion. It is forecasted that LED lamps might be able to penetrate the lighting market of applications having longer operation time (e.g. commercial lighting) and largely replace CFL (compact fluorescent lamps) and incandescent lamps around 2015. However, around 2015, it is also forecasted that LED lamps are less likely to replace other major conventional light sources whose energy efficacy and lifetime are better than those of CFL, for example fluorescent lamps. Moreover, even in countries having higher electricity price and government subsidies on LED lamps (10% of retail price), it is forecasted that LED lamps are less likely to significantly penetrate the residential lighting market until 2017 due to limited savings from shorter utilization. This prompts the speculation that the current forecasts of LED demand growth rate are over optimistic, and there might be oversupply and price competition in the near future if the new capacity is going to grow as planned. As a result, there might be a series of mergers and acquisitions in the near future, especially in China.
To be successful in the new business landscape of the LED industry, in addition to technological advancements, it is important to create perceived product differentiation (e.g. branding).

口試委員會審定書 i
謝辭 ii
中文摘要 iii
ABSTRACT v
Table of Contents viii
List of Figures xi
List of Tables xii
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Objective & Significance of the Study 4
1.3 Research Structure 5
Chapter 2 Literature Review 6
2.1 S-C-P Analysis 6
2.2 Overview of LED 9
2.2.1 LED Mechanism 9
2.2.2 LED Technology Evolution 9
2.2.3 LED Advantages 13
Chapter 3 LED Industry Analysis 14
3.1 Demand 14
3.1.1 Large display backlight 15
3.1.2 General Lighting 22
3.2 Supply 27
3.2.1 LED Application Value Chain 27
3.2.2 Technology 30
3.2.3 Product Durability 31
3.2.4 Value/Weight 32
3.3 Government Policy 33
3.3.1 Ban Incandescent Lamps 33
3.3.2 China Government Subsidy on Supply-Side (MOCVD Subsidy) 33
3.3.3 China Government Subsidy on Demand-Side (50 Cities, 2 Million Lamps) 34
3.3.4 Japan Government Subsidy on Demand-Side (Eco-points) 35
3.4 Market Structure 36
3.4.1 Market Concentration 36
3.4.2 Entry Barriers 39
3.4.3 Product Differentiation 41
3.4.4 Cost Structure 41
3.4.5 Vertical Integration 41
3.4.6 Conglomerateness 42
3.5 Market Conduct 43
3.5.1 Product Choice, Research and Development & Legal Tactics 43
3.5.2 Investment Plan 44
3.5.3 Price Competition 46
3.6 Market Performance 46
Chapter 4 LED Lighting Payback Period 50
4.1 Projected LED Lamp Cost 54
4.2 Total Ownership Cost and Payback Period 57
4.2.1 Total Ownership Cost 57
4.2.2 Payback Period 59
4.2.3 Methodology of LED Payback Period Estimation 59
4.2.4 Scenario-1: CFL fight-back (Worse Scenario) 65
4.2.5 Scenario-2: No Improvement in CFL (Better Scenario) 71
4.2.6 Scenario-3: Scenario-2 + High Electricity Price + Subsidy (Best Scenario) 77
4.3 Summary of LED Payback Estimation 84
4.3.1 Commercial Lighting 85
4.3.2 Residential Lighting 86
4.3.3 Commercial over Residential Lighting 87
4.3.4 The Effect of High Electricity Price and Government Subsidy 87
4.3.5 Estimated Demand for LED Lighting and LED Chips 88
Chapter 5 Strategic Implications and Suggestions 97
5.1 Limited Profit Margin in the long run 97
5.2 Speculation about Oversupply and Price War 98
5.3 Decrease in Replacement Demand due to Durability 100
5.4 Possible Decrease in Demand as Technology Advance 100
5.5 Evolution of Market Structure 101
5.6 Key Success Factors 102
5.6.1 Focus on Niche Markets 102
5.6.2 Physical Product Differentiation 104
5.6.3 Perceived Product Differentiation 105
5.6.4 Cost Advantage 106
5.7 Light Engine Integrator 107
Chapter 6 Conclusions and Future Research 108
6.1 Conclusions 108
6.2 Future Research Directions 110
References 111


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