臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

　　隨著工業及經濟之蓬勃發展，世界能源需求持續成長，使得化石能源之消耗大幅提升，另一方面，由於溫室效應及氣候變遷等環境議題備受關注，在兼顧經濟發展與環境保育之雙重目標下，世界各國無不積極投入潔淨能源等相關技術之研發，帶動了潔淨能源工業之崛起，而備受爭議的「核能」在2007 年時也被氣候變遷跨政府小組 (IPCC) 列入有助於阻止暖化的再生能源之一，此舉雖造成國際間極大之爭議，但已使得潔淨替代能源與核能在能源部門扮演的角色愈加受到重視。台灣自產能源有限，2010 年能源進口依存度已高達99.39 %，除面臨能源供應安全性之問題外，也同時面對能源需求增加與溫室氣體減量之目標，而擁核與反核之爭議，至今仍未獲得共識。本研究乃期望藉助優化分析之技術，考量各部門能源成長需求、溫室氣體減量及開發核能等條件，同時引入碳權交易之概念，建立台灣能源模型，對能源配置進行最佳化策略分析，探討在不同情境下，燃料與電力需求供應中，化石能源、潔淨能源與核能之配比，同時了解各項能源成本對能源結構造成之競合現象，及溫室氣體減量目標之達成性，藉以評估各項能源政策之可行性。

　　According to blooming industrial and economical development, the global energy demand has undergone a steady growth. The consumption of fossil fuel has been raised significantly in the last decades. In addition, as climate change related environmental issues became a major concern. For approaching the dual goal of economical development and environmental protection, the clean energy technologies are developed actively throughout the world. Besides, nuclear power has been regarded as an effective GHG mitigation option in IPCC fourth assessment report in 2007. Much attention has been paid to the roles these new renewable energy sources and nuclear power can play. In Taiwan, the indigenous energy resources are deficient and therefore the dependence on imported fossil fuel in 2009 has reached 99.37 %. This situation endangers the stability of energy supply, also increases the difficulty for meeting energy demand growth and greenhouse gases emission reduction in the same time. In this study, an optimization model has been developed for deriving the optimal strategies for energy structure in Taiwan. With the objective of minimizing the total costs while taking into account the increasing demand of energy, development of nuclear energy and targets of GHG reduction, the model aims to identity the allocations of fossil fuel, cleaner energy sources, and nuclear power with respect to different scenarios. Feasibility analysis of several energy structures has also been conducted according to tradeoffs among energy sources with different costs, together with the possibility of meeting the goals of GHG reduction.

目錄 I
圖目錄 V
表目錄 VIII
中文摘要 1
英文摘要 2
第一章　前言 3
1.1 研究源起 3
1.2 研究目的 4
1.3 研究架構 5
第二章　文獻回顧 7
2.1 國內能源政策與結構發展 7
2.1.1 國內能源供需現況 7
2.1.2 能源政策發展方向 11
2.2 潔淨再生能源發展現況 13
2.2.1 我國潔淨再生能源推廣現況 18
2.3 能源配置策略 19
2.3.1 潔淨再生能源發展 20
2.3.2 能源配置最佳化分析 21
2.3.3 能源政策 29
2.4 能源使用與溫室氣體排放 30
2.5 能源結構多目標規劃 32
2.6 我國潔淨能源與其他能源開發潛力 35
2.6.1 風力發電 35
2.6.2 太陽能發電 36
2.6.3 水力發電 37
2.6.4 地熱發電 38
2.6.5 核能發電 39
2.6.6 焚化發電 40
2.6.7 洋流發電 40
2.6.8 溫差發電 41
2.6.9 沼氣發電 41
2.7 小結 42
第三章　研究地區背景資料 44
3.1 能源需求 44
3.1.1 能源部門 44
3.1.2 工業部門 46
3.1.3 運輸部門 48
3.1.4 農業部門 49
3.1.5 服務業部門 50
3.1.6 住宅部門 52
3.1.7 非能源消費部門 52
3.2 能源供給 53
第四章　研究方法 58
4.1 研究流程 58
4.2 能源結構最佳化模式 59
4.3 情境設定 69
第五章　結果與討論 74
5.1 基線情境發展之分析 74
5.1.1 能源供應成本 74
5.1.2 能源供應結構變動 75
5.1.3 溫室氣體排放趨勢 87
5.2 碳交易之可行性評估 89
5.2.1 碳交易對總能源供應成本之影響 92
5.2.2 不同潔淨能源對碳交易獲利之影響 94
5.2.3 碳交易對溫室氣體排放趨勢之影響 97
5.3 潔淨能源開發期程之影響 98
5.3.1 潔淨能源開發期程對能源供應成本之影響 98
5.3.2 潔淨能源開發期程對能源結構變動之影響 100
5.3.3 潔淨能源開發期程對溫室氣體排放量之影響 107
5.4 能源結構多目標規劃分析 109
5.4.1 多目標規劃對能源供應成本之影響 110
5.4.2 多目標規劃對能源結構變動之影響 111
5.4.3 多目標規劃對溫室氣體排放量之影響 117
5.5 能源需求成長率變動敏感度分析 119
5.5.1 能源需求成長率變動對能源供應成本之影響 120
5.5.2 能源需求成長率變動對溫室氣體排放量之影響 125
第六章　結論與建議 130
6.1 結論 130
6.2 建議 132
參考文獻 134
附件一：符號說明 146
作者簡介 149

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網路資料：
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