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研究生:蔡馨芳
研究生(外文):Hsin-fang Tsai
論文名稱:台灣預算赤字之政經研究
論文名稱(外文):Economic and Political Analysis of Budget Deficit in Taiwan
指導教授:徐仁輝徐仁輝引用關係
指導教授(外文):Jen-Hui Hsu
學位類別:博士
校院名稱:世新大學
系所名稱:行政管理學研究所(含博、碩專班)
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:公共行政學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2011
畢業學年度:99
語文別:中文
論文頁數:314
中文關鍵詞:預算赤字結構性赤字財政永續性預算決策分析新制度經濟學
外文關鍵詞:budget deficitstructural deficitfiscal sustainabilitybudget decision analysisnew institutionalism
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2008年底爆發全球金融風暴,歐美國家甚至遍及全球各國均面臨經濟衰退的考驗。為挽救幾乎呈現癱瘓狀態的金融體系,各國政府不得不採行金融與企業紓困措施。然而,這些權宜性財政政策無疑地加重各國政府財政負擔,對長期財政穩定產生負面而深遠的影響。台灣長期財政狀況趨勢,因整體經濟環境、人口結構變遷以及民主發展等多方因素,顯現財政收支結構僵化的傾向,形成結構性預算赤字。本研究之目的在於衡量台灣結構性赤字的規模,並驗證財政永續性之條件,做為闡述政策是否持續之依據。並藉由新制度經濟學的觀點,發展出新一代預算理論,以有效描述及解釋支出結構僵化及長期財政失衡的現象。
本文採用OECD之衡量模型及驗證時間序列恆定之計量技巧,進行台灣財政變數時間序列資料之衡量及驗證,發現台灣於1992~2008年間之結構性赤字占GDP的比例平均為4.1%,規模高於OECD國家全體結構性赤字占GDP比例的3%,財政結構化的情況頗為嚴重,必須密切觀察。同時依據財政收支時間序列資料之實證結果,台灣在1989年之後迄今,財政收支變數之間已無法滿足跨期平衡條件,表示政府必須審慎檢視政策變更之必要性,以確保財政之永續發展。另外,透過深度訪談的方式,探究新制度經濟學之相關理論對於當前台灣財政失衡現實解釋力,發現共同資源理論及代理人理論能描述機關競逐有限財政資源,導致赤字不斷擴張的趨勢,以及立法機關因資訊不對稱而導致監督成本過高,無法建立適當預算決策機制的現狀;而交易成本概念則能有效掌握台灣社會福利支出逐漸提高,進而形成結構僵化之論述,並做為總體預算制度短期有效性之理論依據。
Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, European countries and many others around the world have been facing recession challenge. In order to save the financial system that almost paralyzed, governments had to adopt aggressive revitalization strategies for banks and industries. These discretionary fiscal policies;however, increased the financial burden on governments, and caused negative and long-term impacts on financial stability. Due to the overall economic and political environment, demographically and democratically, Taiwan's long-term financial situation reveals the tendency of rigidities and structural budget deficit. The purpose of this study is as follows: 1) to measure the size of Taiwan's structural deficit; 2) to verify the level of fiscal sustainability as a basis for continued policies; 3)to develop a new generation of budget theory via new institutionalism perspective. These efforts would help describe and explain the structure of expenditure rigidities and long-term fiscal imbalance effectively.

By adopteing the OECD model to measure structural deficit and econometric techniques of time series analysis to verify the fiscal variables in Taiwan, the researcher found that the average of structural deficit as a percentage of GDP is 4.1 percent in Taiwan during 1992 and 2008. Comparing to the overall structural deficit in OECD countries, 3%, the figure is higher in Taiwan. The number shows that the situation of fiscal rigidity in Taiwan is quite serious and must be closely observed. Moreover, empirical results of time series data of Taiwan after 1989 also reveal that revenue and expenditure variables have been unable to meet the intertemporal equilibrium condition. Our Government should review the need for fiscal policy changes consistently and carefully to ensure the fiscal sustainability.
Four bodies of theories are applied in the explanation of the phenomenon of fiscal imbalances. In order to explore the explanatory power of fiscal imbalances with the lens of new institutionalism, the researcher also employs common resource theory to describe the authority of competition for limited financial resources. The theory is also able to explain the trend of deficit expansion in Taiwan. Agent theory explains why Legislature cannot establish an appropriate budget decision-making mechanism due to the high cost of supervision caused by information asymmetry. Short-term effectiveness of macro-budgeting system might be based on transaction costs theory that can effectively discourse the gradual increase of social welfare spending in Taiwan.
目 次
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景及動機 1
第二節 研究問題及目的 7
壹、結構性赤字之衡量 7
貳、財政永續及政策持續性 14
參、財政失衡下之預算決策分析 17
第二章 理論基礎與文獻回顧 23
第一節 財政赤字及公債理論之辯證 23
壹、十八世紀有關財政赤字及公債之論證 26
貳、十九世紀有關財政赤字及公債之論證 27
參、二十世紀(1970年代之前)有關財政赤字及公債之論證 29
肆、二十世紀(1970年代以後)有關財政赤字及公債之論證 30
伍、小結 38
第二節 結構性赤字之衡量 40
壹、結構性赤字之意義 40
貳、有關衡量結構性赤字之文獻 41
第三節 財政永續性及政策持續性 44
壹、「財政永續性」之定義 45
貳、財政永續性之實證文獻論據 48
第四節 財政失衡下之預算決策分析 53
壹、實質理性決策模型 55
貳、程序理性決策模型 59
第三章 研究架構及方法 73
第一節 研究架構 73
第二節 研究設計 75
壹、數量分析法 75
貳、文獻分析法 78
參、深度訪談法 78
第三節 研究方法及實證模型 81
壹、結構性預算餘額之衡量 81
貳、非恆定時間序列模型與單根檢定 86
參、共整合分析及誤差修正模型 92
第四章 研究結果及發現 97
第一節 結構性赤字之衡量 97
壹、潛在產出水準(potential output)之估算結果 97
貳、彈性的估算結果 98
參、結構性財政餘絀估算結果及分析 100
第二節 財政永續及政策持續性 122
壹、單根與共整合檢定及誤差修正模型之實證結果 122
貳、實證結果分析 127
第三節 財政失衡下之預算決策分析 130
壹、預算決策—交易成本理論 130
貳、預算決策—利益團體理論 135
參、預算紀律—共同資源理論 138
肆、預算效率—代理人理論 142
伍、小結 145
第五章 結論與建議 147
第一節 結論 147
第二節 政策及制度改革建議 150
第三節 研究創見與貢獻 154
第四節 研究限制 156
參考文獻 159
附 錄 177
附錄一、OECD各國與台灣之實際財政餘額與結構性餘額 177
附錄二、1992~2010年台灣與OECD國家之結構性赤字及實際赤字 179
附錄三-1、台灣政府歷年重要租稅措施 185
附錄三-2、台灣政府歷年重要政經大事及政策支出 188
附錄四、深度訪談逐字稿摘要 191
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周翠如譯,2002,Krugman著,《模糊的數學:克魯曼深度解讀經濟現況》(Fuzzy Math: The Essential Guide to the Bush Tax Plan),台北:時報文化。(原著於2001年出版)。
林向愷、賴惠子,2009,〈預算體制與政府跨期財政行為—台灣的實證研究〉,《經濟論文》,第37卷第2期,頁207-252。
林健次,1998,〈權力、體制與台灣的財政赤字〉,《國策專刊》,第6期,頁12-14
林慈芳,2008,〈2012年台灣經濟成長潛力及政策模擬分析〉,行政院經濟建設委員會研究報告,http://www.cepd.gov.tw/m1.aspx?sNo=0011881&ex=3&ic=00 00152;2010/7/16。
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林鍾沂,2004,《行政學》,台北:三民。
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徐仁輝,2002,〈預算赤字控制問題研究〉,《財稅研究》,第34卷第2期,頁38-57。
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徐仁輝,2010,〈預算赤字與財政政策〉,《財稅研究》,第42卷第3期,頁33-45。
徐仁輝、蔡馨芳,2009,〈OECD主要國家振興經濟方案對政府財政之衝擊及果效〉,收錄於徐仁輝、郭昱瑩、周濟、張淑華主編,《金融海嘯與公共政策》第5章,頁107-130。台北市:智勝文化。
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陳旭昇,2009,《時間序列分析:總體經濟與財務金融之應用》,台北:東華書局。
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陳昀孜,2004,〈政府財政赤字形成之政經因素分析〉,《立法院院聞》,第32卷第11期,頁48-64。
陳師孟,2006,《政治經濟:現代理論與台灣應用》,台北:翰蘆圖書。
陳菁瑤,1998,〈我國政府預算赤字政經因素之初探〉,《主計月報》,第86期第2卷,頁34-46
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楊麗薇,1995,《政府預算赤字與跨期預算平衡—台灣個案》,逢甲大學經濟學研究所碩士論文,未出版。
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蔡吉源,1995,〈財政赤字之成因及改進之道〉,《財稅研究》,第27卷第6期,頁48-62。
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二、英文部分
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_________, 1977. Democracy in Deficit : the Political Legacy of Lord Keynes, Academic Press.
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________, 1977. “The Expanding Public Sector: Wagner Squared.” Public Choice, 31(1):147-150.
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