臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

自90年代進入資本全球化時代後，國際資本移動瞬息萬變，資本移出國固然深受資本移出之苦，資本移入國同樣陷入高度不確定的窘境。國際資本移動對接受資本國家的經濟發展究竟是正面或負面？暴衝的資本移動成為資本流出國與流入國均須面對的課題。
本文以實質匯率概念所計得的出口產業競爭力指標，實證探討1990年至2009年間國際資本移動對台灣國際競爭力之影響，建立迴歸方程式進行分析，結果顯示：
各項金融變數中除外國直接投資(FDI)外，均與國家競爭力呈現正向變動，其中外人來台證券投資更呈顯著。可見開放而活絡的證券與股票市場，確能提升國家之生產力，進而提昇國際競爭力。而當資本流入分類為外國直接投資，證券投資，債權投資，本文實證結果認為，對於整個樣本，證券投資對台灣國際競爭力影響最強，其次是，組合投資，和債權投資。

The arriving of globalization during the 1990s has brought about tremendous unexpected adverse effects to the world economy especially those involved with international capital mobility in that not only were the capital outflow nations suffered from losing available resources, the capital receiving nations also confronted with difficulties arising from the sudden reversing in capital flows. Whether the international capital movements benefits or harms the nations involved has been attracted international economists attention.
This thesis empirically examines the effects of various types of capital inflows, namely, the foreign direct investment (FDI), the two kinds of portfolio investment and the short term financial accommodations to Taiwan on the competitiveness of Taiwan’s exports in the U.S. importing market for the period between 1990 and 2009.
Empirical estimations have shown that all three types of capital inflows, with the FDI as exception, contribute the improvement in the international competitiveness of Taiwan’s exporting industry while the portfolio foreign investments in Taiwan has generated statistically significant positive effect.

目 錄
圖目錄 II
表目錄 III
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 我國的出口產業現況 9
第三節 論文架構 16
第二章 文獻回顧與本文研究方法 17
第一節 國家競爭力與國際資本移動 17
第二節 國際資本移動與實質匯率的實證研究 23
第三節 實證模型與估計程序 30
第三章 實證研究 34
第一節 資料來源與特徵 34
第二節 國際資本移動的影響 46
第三節 比較各種資本移動影響程度 52
第四章 結論 60
參考文獻 61


圖目錄
圖1-1 2005~2010年我國對主要出口地區出口比率圖 ...................... 5
圖1-2 臺灣地區出口產業在美國進口市場競爭力指標走勢圖 ............... 7
圖1-3 台灣地區三種外資與競爭力指標走勢圖 ........................... 8
圖1-4 台灣外銷訂單-美國-年(萬美元)數值圖 ........................... 9
圖1-5 2010年我國主要出口貨品圖 .................................... 10
圖1-6 我國主要出口貨品圖 .......................................... 12
圖3-1 出口產業競爭力指標 .......................................... 36
圖3-2 台灣美元兌新台幣名目匯率(年平均值) .......................... 36
圖3-3 台灣EPI ..................................................... 34
圖3-4 美國進口物價指數 ............................................ 37
圖3-5 外人來臺直接投資 ............................................ 39
圖3-6 外人來臺股權投資 ............................................ 40
圖3-7 外人來臺債權投資 ............................................ 41
圖3-8 其他投資(負債) .............................................. 42
圖3-9 政府支出 .................................................... 44
圖3-10 貿易條件 ................................................... 45
圖3-11 政府歲出統計圖 ............................................. 57
圖3-12 經濟發展支出佔歲出比重圖 ................................... 57

表目錄
表1-1 我國對主要貿易地區出口統計表 ................................ 4
表1-2 我國主要出口貨品統計表 ..................................... 10
表3-1 變數定義及資料來源表 ....................................... 34
表3-2 敘述統計表 ................................................. 35
表3-3 四種控制變數間相關係數值 ................................... 42
表3-4 臺灣地區出口產業在美國進口市場競爭力的實證結果表(原始資料) . 47
表3-5 臺灣地區出口產業在美國進口市場競爭力的實證結果表(佔GDP比率) 50
表3-6 臺灣地區出口產業在美國進口市場競爭力的實證結果表(標準化) ... 54
表3-7 實證估計結果彙整表 ......................................... 56

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