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研究生:林信宏
研究生(外文):Shin-Hung Lin
論文名稱:管理者的樂觀情緒與投資效率之間的影響
論文名稱(外文):Managerial Optimism and Investment Efficiency
指導教授:陳一如陳一如引用關係
指導教授(外文):I-Ju Chen
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:元智大學
系所名稱:財務金融學程
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:一般商業學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2011
畢業學年度:99
語文別:英文
論文頁數:41
中文關鍵詞:管理者情緒投資效率過度投資投資不足
外文關鍵詞:Managerial optimismInvestment efficiencyOverinvestmentUnderinvestment
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以往的文獻說明管理者的樂觀情緒大多會影響公司的投資決策並造成潛在的投資扭曲,像是投資不足與過度投資等現象,而亦有學者著重在會計之觀點並證實了若一家公司的會計品質越高,則藉由減少投資不足與過度投資等現象能有效的增加該公司的投資效率。因此本篇研究欲著重於管理者行為的觀點並使用Campbell et al.(2010)中對於管理者樂觀的衡量方法。其主要的研究目的為不同等級的管理者樂觀情緒將如何幫助改善一家有投資不足或過度投資傾向之公司的投資效率,並進而探討是否也會增加該公司的價值。藉由研究這些公司投資不足與過度投資等現象的減少,我們發現當公司有投資不足的傾向時,如果同時存有高度樂觀的CEO則能夠藉由減少投資不足的現象來改善這些公司的投資效率並增加其公司價值;然而,當公司有過度投資的傾向時,並沒有足夠的證據顯示低度樂觀的管理者情緒能夠藉由減少投資不足等現象來有效的改善這些公司的投資效率並增加其公司價值。

This study focuses on the viewpoint of managers own behavior and follows the measurement of Campbell et al. (2010) for managerial optimism. We investigate how different levels of managerial optimism help to improve the investment efficiency and firm value when firms are more prone to under- or over-invest. By studying the reduction of overinvestment and underinvestment of these conditional firms, we find that when firms are prone to under-invest, a firm with a CEO that has a high level of managerial optimism can improve the firm’s investment efficiency by reducing the degree of underinvestment, which further increases the firm’s value; this is consistent with our hypotheses. However, when firms are prone to over-invest, there is not sufficient evidence to show that a firm with a low level of managerial optimism will effectively improve the firm’s investment efficiency and increase firm value by reducing the degree of overinvestment.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.Introduction..........................................1
2.Related Literature....................................4
2.1 Managerial Optimism and Corporate Decisions.........5
2.2 The Influencing Factors of Corporate Investment Decisions...............................................7
2.3 Corporate Investment Efficiency.....................9
2.4 Managerial Optimism and Firm Value..................10
3.Hypotheses............................................11
3.1 The Relation between Managerial Optimism and Investment Efficiency..............................................12
3.2 The Relation between Managerial Optimism and Firm Value ........................................................14
4.Data and Methodology..................................15
4.1 Sample and Data.....................................16
4.2 The Measurement of Managerial Optimism..............16
4.3 The Measurement of Over- and Underinvestment........18
4.4 Research Model......................................19
4.4.1 Difference Test...................................19
4.4.2 Regression Specifications.........................19
5.Empirical Results.....................................21
5.1 Univariate Analysis Results.........................23
5.2 Multiple Regression Analysis Results................24
5.2.1 Regression results for the relation between investment and the different levels of optimism....................24
5.2.2 Regression results for the relation between firm value and the different levels of optimism....................25
6.Discussion and Conclusions............................25
References..............................................27

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
Table 1. Variable definitions...........................29
Table 2. Proportion of high/low-optimism CEOs...........31
Figure 1. Proportion of CEOs at different levels of optimism, by CEO, 1992-2005.............................32
Figure 2. Proportion of CEOs at different levels of optimism, by CEO-firm-year, 1992-2009...................33
Figure 3. Cash ratio for sample firms...................34
Figure 4. Leverage for sample firms.....................34
Table 3. Descriptive statistics for research variables, 1992-2009...............................................35
Table 4. Differences test between high optimistic CEOs and low optimistic CEOs from two subsamples.................37
Table 5. Regression results for the relation between investment and the different levels of optimism.........38
Table 6. Regression results for the relation between firm value and the different levels of optimism..............40


References
Barros, Lucas Ayres B.de C. and Alexandre Di Miceli da Silveira., 2007, Overconfidence, Managerial Optimism and the Determinants of Capital Structure, Working Paper.
Biddle, G., and Hilary, G., 2006, Accounting Quality and Firm-Level Capital Investment. The Accounting Review 81, 963–982.
Biddle, G., Hilary, G. and Verdi, R., 2009, How does financial reporting quality relate to investment efficiency?, Journal of Accounting and Economics 48, 112-131.
Campbell, T. C., Gallmeyer, M., Johnson, S. A., Rutherford, J., Stanley, B. W., 2011, CEO Optimism and Forced Turnover, Journal of Financial Economics 101, 695–712.
Deshmukh, S., Goel, A. M., and Howe, K. M., 2008, CEO Overconfidence and Dividend Policy: Theory and Evidence, Working Paper, DePaul University.
Garcia Lara, J. M., Garcia Osma, B., and Penalva, F., 2010, Conditional Conservatism and Firm Investment Efficiency, Working Paper, Universidad Carlos III de Marid.
Gervais, S., Heaton, J., Odean, T., 2002, The Positive Role of Overconfidence and Optimism in Investment Policy, Working Paper, University of California, Berkeley.
Glaser, M., Schafers, P., and Weber, M., 2008, Managerial Optimism and Corporate Investment: Is the CEO Alone Responsible for the Relation?, Working Paper.
Goel, A. M., and Thakor, A. V, 2008, Overconfidence, CEO selection, and Corporate governance, Journal of Finance 63, 2737–2784.
Hackbarth, D., 2007, Managerial Traits and Capital Structure Decisions, Working Paper, University of California, Berkeley.
Heaton, J. B., 2002, Managerial Optimism and Corporate Finance, Financial Management 31, 33-45.
Hirshleifer, D. A., Teoh, S. H., Low, A., 2010, Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?, Working Paper, University of California at Irvine.
Hsiao-Fen Hsiao, 2008, Investment Inefficiencies and Managerial Sentiment, Working Paper.
Jensen, M., 1986, Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers. American Economic Review 76, 323–329.
Lin, Y. H., Hu, S. Y., and Chen, M. S., 2005, Managerial Optimism and Corporate Investment: Some empirical evidence from Taiwan. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 13, 523–546.
Lin, Y. H., Hu, S. Y., and Chen, M. S., 2008, Testing Pecking Order Prediction from the Viewpoint of Managerial Optimism: Some Empirical Evidence from Taiwan, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 16, 160–181.
Melmendier, U., Tate, G., 2005a, CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment, Journal of Finance 60, 2661–2700.
Melmendier, U., Tate, G., 2005b, Does Overconfidence Affect Corporate Investment? CEO Measures Revisited, European Financial Management 11, 649–659.
Melmendier, U., Tate, G., 2008, Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market’s Reaction, Journal of Financial Economics 89, 20–43.
Myers, S., and Majluf, N., 1984, Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions when Firms have Information that Investors do not have. Journal of Financial Economics 13, 187–221.
Shefrin, Hersh, 2001, Behavioral Corporate Finance, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 14, 113–124.
Stein, J. C., 2003, Agency, Information and Corporate Investment, in G.M. Constantinides, M. Harris and R. Stulz, eds. Handbook of the Economics of Finance (Elsevier, Amsterdam).


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