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研究生:任哲誼
研究生(外文):Jhe-Yi Ren
論文名稱:退休金提撥狀況與分析師預測資訊環境
論文名稱(外文):Pension Funding and Properties of Analysts’ Information Environment
指導教授:呂倩如呂倩如引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chien-Ju Lu
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:元智大學
系所名稱:會計學程
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:一般商業學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2011
畢業學年度:99
語文別:英文
論文頁數:31
中文關鍵詞:退休金盈餘預測一致性分析師平均盈餘預測
外文關鍵詞:Pension accountingAnalysts’ forecast consensusMean forecast error.
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退休金是十分複雜的一項會計項目,其中包含許多估計的資料與數據在其中,文獻指出當分析師對此複雜的退休金會計項目做預測時,會有較高預測誤差,因此本研究擬探討存在此複雜與不確定性特性的退休金會計對分析師蒐集私有資訊行為之影響。本篇研究發現一般而言雖然公司退休金之提撥程度不會影響分析師取得私有資訊之誘因,然而,當認列在資產負債表內的退休金資訊與附註揭露在表外之退休金資訊差異大的情況時,表示資訊缺乏一致性,分析師在此情況下對提撥不足或過度提撥程度愈大的公司做預測時,會納入更多私有資訊,而導致盈餘預測一致性的下降,更進一步造成分析師平均盈餘預測誤差顯著的下降。

Pension accounting, a complicated accounting item, includes the complexity of pension calculation and a large amount of estimated data and information. There would be higher forecast errors when analysts make earnings forecasts for firms with high complexity of pension. Therefore, this paper seeks to explore the relationship between pension accounting and the acquisition of private information for analysts. I find that, on average, although pension funding would not affect the motivation of analysts to acquire more private information. However, the larger discrepancies between the amount recognized on the balance sheet and actual pension funding disclosed on financial statement represent the lack of consistency in information. Analysts will incorporate more private information into their forecasts when firms with severely underfunded or overfunded pension, which results in the decline of analysts’ forecast consensus. The mean forecast error will significantly decrease after earnings announcement when the incentive for analysts to collect private information increase.

I. Introduction 1
II. Literature Review and Hypotheses Development 5
III. Sample Selection and Research Design 10
3.1 Variable Definitions 10
3.2 Research Models 12
3.3 Sample Selection 16
IV. Empirical Results 17
4.1 Descriptive Statistics 17
4.2 Spearman Correlation Analysis 18
4.3 Regression of Analysts’ Forecast Errors 19
4.4 Rank Regression Analysis of the Change in BKLS Consensus on Pension Funding 20
4.5 Rank Regression Analysis of the Change in Mean Forecast Error on Pension Funding 21
V. Conclusions 22
References 24

List of Tables
Table 1: Sample Selection Procedure 26
Table 2: Descriptive Statistics 27
Table 3: Spearman Rank Correlation Analysis 28
Table 4: Regressions of Analysts’ Forecast Errors 29
Table 5: Rank Regressions of the Change in BKLS Consensus 30
Table 6: Rank Regressions of the Change in Mean Forecast Error 31


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