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研究生:郭紋綺
研究生(外文):Kuo, Wenchi
論文名稱:全球生育與文化轉型對兒童死亡率的影響: 一個跨國分析
論文名稱(外文):Effect of Global Fertility and Cultural Transition on Child Mortality: A Cross-National Analysis
指導教授:陳正和陳正和引用關係
口試委員:吳明燁翁志遠
口試日期:2012-07-12
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:輔仁大學
系所名稱:社會學系碩士班
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:社會學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2012
畢業學年度:100
語文別:中文
論文頁數:131
中文關鍵詞:人口轉型全球生育與文化轉型兒童死亡率發展中國家
外文關鍵詞:demographic transitionglobal fertility and cultural transitionchild mortalitydeveloping countries
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本研究旨在探討「全球生育與文化轉型」是否與兒童死亡率有關,檢視生育率下降帶動社會觀念的根本性變遷對兒童福祉的影響,並藉由完整的理論研究架構檢證總體社會變遷理論量度對兒童死亡率的作用。其中現代化理論指出經濟發展能提升生活品質,降低兒童死亡率;而依賴/世界體系理論作為外在結構成因,強調經濟依賴關係不利於依賴國家對提升兒童生存的努力;生態演化論以技術經濟遺產為核心概念,強調農業社會有較高的社會承載力,能幫助社會發展軌跡加速兒童死亡率下降。在考量國家力量、性別階層,與公共衛生等重要解釋因素為控制變項後,探討總體社會變遷理論變項、「全球生育與文化轉型」對兒童死亡率的影響作用。
本研究的研究對象為發展中國家,樣本數共101個國家,研究方法為多元迴歸分析。主要研究發現如下:一、人口轉型的重新概念量度「全球生育與文化轉型」對發展中國家的兒童死亡率不論在單一時間點的水準或跨兩時點的變動皆達統計上的顯著負向作用。二、經濟發展、技術經濟遺產對兒童死亡率有顯著負向影響,而貿易依賴的正向影響需放在長時間的脈絡下來檢視。三、「全球生育與文化轉型」完全中介經濟發展、經濟依賴與技術經濟遺產對兒童死亡率的作用。四、最後在完整的模型規劃下,國家力量與公共衛生,皆未達到理論上的預期作用,而婦女地位對兒童死亡率存在部份中介作用。

This study explores the relationship between global fertility and cultural transition and child mortality in developing countries. Prior cross-national studies of child and infant mortality emphasized predictors linked to modernization theory, dependency/world system theory, ecological-evolutionary theory, developmental state theory, and gender stratification theory. However, no previous research considers the potential effect of the demographic transition on child mortality. By re-conceptualizing demographic transition as global fertility and cultural transition, this study investigates the relationship between demographic transition and child mortality in developing countries through an integrated framework combining three macro social change and development theories.
Based on both panel and lagged cross-sectional regression analyses of cross-national data using a sample of 101 countries, the findings demonstrate that all indexes of global fertility and cultural transition (gFACT2-TEL, gFACT2-NET, and gFACT3) exert significant direct effects on child mortality in developing countries, even adequately controlling for the effects of relevant alternative explanatory variables. The theoretical, empirical, and policy implications are further discussed.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 問題意識與研究問題 1
第三節 論文結構 4
第二章 文獻探討 5
第一節 總體社會變遷發展理論與兒童死亡率 6
第二節 其他因素與兒童死亡率 16
第三節 全球生育與文化轉型及兒童死亡率 27
第三章 研究方法 45
第一節 研究架構與分析策略 45
第二節 研究假設 53
第三節 資料來源與變項定義 56
第四節 變項的基本特性 62
第五節 全球生育與文化轉型指數建構之因素分析與相關檢定 66
第四章 研究方析與統計結果 68
第一節 相關分析 68
第二節 多元迴歸分析 72
第五章 結論與討論 88
第一節 研究發現 88
第二節 研究貢獻 94
第三節 研究限制與建議 96
參考文獻 97
附錄一 表4-5(模型6)之樣本內容 114
附錄二 耗損分析─保留樣本與耗損樣本之T檢定 115
附錄三 全球生育與文化轉型對兒童死亡率之影響 116
附錄四 全球生育與文化轉型對兒童死亡率(2005)之影響—關鍵試驗測試 117
附錄五 原始編碼資料 118


圖表目錄
圖 3-1 研究架構 52
圖 5-1 兒童死亡率趨勢圖 88

表 2-1 婦女地位與公共衛生相關研究比較表 26
表 2-2 人口轉型下的全球文化轉型 30
表 3-1 主要變項之分佈 64
表 3-2 指數建構之因素負荷量表 67
表 3-3 指標的簡單相關分析 67
表 4-1 自變項與兒童死亡率的相關 70
表 4-2 自變項的相關 71
表 4-3 總體社會變遷理論變項對兒童死亡率的影響之變項組及遞延橫斷面分
析 83
表 4-4 總體社會變遷理論變項對全球文化轉型(2002-2004)之影響 84
表 4-4-1總體社會變遷理論變項對「總生育率(1998年與2002年)」及「全球生育與文化轉型(2002-2004)」之影響 85
表 4-5 「全球生育與文化轉型」指數對兒童死亡率(2005)之變項組迴歸分析 86
表 4-6 兒童死亡率(2005)之變項組迴歸分析─ 關鍵試驗測試 87

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網路資料
聯合國兒童基金會網站
http://www.unicef.org/childsurvival/index.html
http://www.unicef.org/
http://www.childinfo.org/mortality_methodology.html
http://www.unicef.org/statistics/index.html
國際勞工組織
http://www.ilo.org/global/lang--en/index.htm
聯合國統計資料部
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/icp/gdp/gdp02_htm.htm

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