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研究生:洪儷方
研究生(外文):Li-Fang Huang
論文名稱:管理者的盈餘預測誤差對實際盈餘與股價的影響-以上市公司為例
論文名稱(外文):The effect of manager's earnings forecast error on actual earnings and share price -- A case study of listed companies.
指導教授:柯伯昇柯伯昇引用關係
指導教授(外文):Po-Sheng Ko
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立高雄應用科技大學
系所名稱:商務經營研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:一般商業學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2012
畢業學年度:100
語文別:中文
論文頁數:58
中文關鍵詞:應計基礎應計品質淨利
外文關鍵詞:Accrual BasisAccrual QualityNet Income
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由於企業淨利主要根據應計基礎所編制而成,而在會計認列上給予的彈性,管理者對於應計項目擁有一定程度的控制力,可以藉由控制應計項目進行盈餘管理影響企業的淨利。造成近年來許多公司發生財務舞弊的案件頻傳。本研究目的在探討是否管理者會透過盈餘的操控影響公司淨利,進而影響公司股價。
本研究利用2000年1月1日至2009年12月31日共10年排除特殊產業的上市公司作為研究樣本,實證結果發現,就國內上市公司而言,裁決性應計項目對未來盈餘皆具有預測力,管理者使用裁決性應計項目的控制力去影響企業的未來盈餘,認為管理者可以採用裁決性應計項目進行盈餘管理的看法一致。若再將裁決性應計項目分為裁決性流動應計項目與裁決性非流動應計項目,則研究發現以裁決性流動應計項目進行盈餘管理影響淨利,以致裁決性流動應計項目會有較強資訊內涵。因此企業進行盈餘管理時,最常使用的項目是接觸最頻繁、且與日常營業活動最有關係的裁決性應付帳款、裁決性應收帳款、裁決性存貨與裁決性折舊來進行盈餘管理與傳遞資訊。其中以存貨對未來盈餘具有顯著影響力,因為大多數投資人對財報的專業知識程度具有差異性,而有關會計科目的使用只有存貨最容易使大多數投資人所瞭解,所以有較強的資訊內涵。此外,裁決性應計項目個別因子中亦以存貨對股票報酬具影響力。
The corporate net income is made based on accrual basis. However, the flexibility within accounting recognition gives managers certain control upon accruals, and thereby proceed earnings management to affect corporate net income. Such manipulation caused many financial frauds of companies recently.
According to research samples of 2000-2009, this research finds discretionary accruals were predictable for managers to influence future earnings. In addition, given further classification into discretionary current and non-current accruals, namely discretionary current accruals showed abundant information content on earnings management. Therefore, the research believes discretionary accounts receivable, accounts receivable, inventory and depreciation were the most relevant components frequently used for earnings management and information transmission. Among the four components, the inventory possessed notable influence to future corporate net income because most investors have differences in the degree of expertise of the financial statement and the inventory is likely to make most investors understand the abundant information. Meanwhile, the inventory provided good prediction for future stock returns.
目 錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第三節 研究架構 4
第二章 文獻探討 6
第一節 盈餘管理的定義、方式、以及動機 7
第二節 應計項目的評價 15
第三節 裁決性應計項目的估計模型 19
第四節 應計項目與盈餘管理對股價的影響。 31
第三章 研究方法 34
第一節 研究架構 34
第二節 研究假說 35
第三節 研究設計 37
第四節 研究樣本 41
第五節 統計方法 42
第四章 實證結果 43
第一節 敘述性統計 43
第二節 以裁決性應計項目進行盈餘管理影響淨利 45
第三節 以裁決性流動應計項目進行盈餘管理影響淨利 46
第四節 以與營業有關之裁決性應計項目進行盈餘管理來影響淨利 47
第五節 裁決性應計項目與股價報酬之關係 48
第五章 結論與建議 50
第一節 結論 50
第二節 建議 51
參考文獻 52
一、中文部分 52
二、英文部分 54

表 次
表2-1裁決性與非裁決性應計項目的分類 24
表4-1 敘述性統計表 44
表4-2 裁決性應計項目分析 45
表4-3 裁決性流動應計項目分析 46
表4-4 與營業有關之裁決性應計項目分析 48
表4-5 與營業有關之裁決性應計項目分析 49
圖 次
圖1-1 研究流程圖 5
圖3-1 裁決性應計項目研究架構 34
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