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研究生:陳威霖
研究生(外文):Chen, Wei Lin
論文名稱:部分調整行為之探討-以地價基準地為例
論文名稱(外文):Partial adjustment behavior: evidence from revaluation of land value benchmark
指導教授:陳奉瑤陳奉瑤引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:地政研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:公共行政學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:100
語文別:中文
論文頁數:64
中文關鍵詞:估價平滑部分調整地價基準地
外文關鍵詞:Appraisal SmoothingPartial AdjustmentLand Value Benchmark
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目前我國地價制度,主要係依地價調查估計規則規定,查估公告土地現值及公告地價。價格評估主要採區段地價方式,可能造成忽略土地個別因素影響,造成評估價格明顯遠離市價。近年來我國推行地價基準地制度,期透過引進不動產估價技術規則之規範,以個別估價方式評估基準地價格,以真實反映價格與市場波動情形。然基準地評價屬一序列式之估價方式,其評估過程是否為獨立且客觀仍須進一步加以驗證。本文依循Quan-Quigley部分調整模型之理念,對高雄市地價基準地之重估價案例進行研究,透過迴歸分析分別衡量估值與當期市場價格、前期估值之關係,推估地價人員之信心水準,並進一步分析地價基準地制度是否能確實反映市場價值波動情形。研究結果顯示估價人員存在價格部分調整策略,信心水準值偏低,存在嚴重依賴前期估值之行為,隱含地價基準地評價存在估價平滑之現象。
Previous studies defined appraisal smoothing as reduced volatility or the lag structure of appraisal-based index as compared to transaction-based index. Most of these studies examined by aggregate level and used extensive data sets to de-smooth the appraisal-based index. This paper aims to observe smoothing behavior amongst appraisers in Taiwan. It uses re-appraisal data of the land value benchmark in Kaohsiung city and modifies the partial adjustment model, developed by Quan and Quigley. Use the concept of regression analysis to measure the ratio between the current appraisal, current market value and the pre-appraisal. By establish the confidence value, we may observe the behavior of appraisers and public assessors, and distinguish if the behavior is rational or not.
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究方法與範圍 3
第三節 研究架構與流程 5
第二章 文獻回顧 7
第一節 偏誤與去平滑技術 8
第二節 估價人員行為與部分調整 10
第三節 部分調整模型 12
第四節 小結 16
第三章 研究設計 17
第一節 基準地評價之部分調整模型 17
第二節 資料內容 20
第四章 實證分析 27
第一節 市場資訊替代變數之推估 27
第二節 基準地價格之部分調整情形 32
第四節 評價人員部分調整策略之差異 47
第五節 小結 50
第五章 結論與建議 53
第一節 結論 53
第二節 建議 55
附錄(一):Visual Basic程式碼(節錄) 61
附錄(二):SAS程式碼(節錄) 63

一、中文文獻
1.洪鴻智、張能政,2006,「不動產估價人員之價值探索過程:估價程序與參考點的選擇」,『建築與規劃學報 』,第7期第1卷,頁71-90。
2.游適銘,2009,「部分調整行為之估價平滑-以台中市地價基準地重估價為例」,『2009土地學術研討會論文集』。
3.游適銘,2007,「地價基準地與區段地價制度結合之研究」,內政部自行研究報告。
4.梁仁旭、陳奉瑤,2011,『不動產估價』,巨流政大書城經銷,台北。
5.賴靖雯,2008,「不動產估價師部分調整行為之研究-以不動產證券化重估價為例」,國立政治大學碩士論文,台北市。
6.陳奉瑤,2011,『不動產估價行為研究』,中國地政研究所,台北。
7.廖彬傑、陳奉瑤、葉惠中、梁仁旭,2010,「應用克利金法於同質區之劃分」,『中華民國2010都市計畫學會、區域科學學會、地區發展學會、住宅學會2010聯合年會暨論文研討會論文集』。
二、英文文獻
1.Barkham, R. J. and Geltner, D. M., 1994, “Unsmoothing British valuation-based returns without assuming an efficient market”, Journal of Property Research, 11(2), 81-95.
2.Baum, A. and Crosby, N., 1995, “Property Investment Appraisal”, Routledge, London.
3.Bond, S. A., S. Hwang, 2006, “An Analysis of Commercial Real Estate Returns: Is there a Smoothing Puzzle?”, Working papers in Real Estate &; Planning 17/06, Department of Real Estate &; Planning, The University of Reading.
4.Bond, S. A., S. Hwang, 2005, “Smoothing, Nonsynchronous Appraisal and Cross-Sectional Aggregation in Real Estate Price Indices”, Paper presented at the AREUEA Annual Conference, Philadelphia, January 2005.
5.Brown, G. R., and G. A. Matysiak, 1998, “Valuation Smoothing without Temporal Aggregation”, Journal of Property Research, 15(2):89-103.
6.Chen, Fong-Yao and Yu, Shi-Ming, 2009, "Client influence on valuation: Does language matter? A comparative analysis between Taiwan and Singapore", Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 27(1):25-41.
7.Cho, H., Hawaguchi, Y. and J. Shilling, 2003,”Unsmoothing Commercial Property Returns: A Revision to Fisher-Geltner-Webb’s Unsmoothing Methodology”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 27:393-405.
8.Clayton, J., D. Geltner, and S. W. Hamilton, 2001, “Smoothing in Commercial Property Valuation: Evidence from Individual Appraisals”, Real Estate Economics, 29(3) 337-360.
9.Crosby, N., Lavers, A. and Murdoch, J., 1998, “Property Valuation Variation and the ’Margin of Error’ in the UK”, Journal of Property Research, 15(4), 305-330.
10.Diaz, J. and J. A. Hansz, 1997, “How Valuers Use the Value Opinions of Others”, Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, 15(3):256-260.
11.Diaz, J. and M. Wolverton, 1998, “A Longitudinal Examination of the Appraisal Smoothing Hypothesis”, Real Estate Economics, 26(2):349-358.
12.Diaz, J., 1997, “An Investigation into the Impact of Previous Expert Value Estimate on Appraisal Judgment”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 13(1):57-66.
13.Fisher, J., Geltner, D. and R. Webb, 1994, “Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 9:137-164.
14.Fisher, J., M. Miles, and R. Webb, 1999, “How Reliable are Commercial Property Appraisals? Another Look”, Real Estate Finance, 16(3):9-15.
15.Gallimore, P. and Wolverton, M., 1999, “Client feedback and the role of the appraiser”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 18(3):415-431
16.Geltner, D., 1998, “Appraisal Smoothing: The Other Side of the Story—A Comment”, Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=131459, Working Paper, Department of Finance, University of Cincinnati.
17.Geltner, D., 1991, “Smoothing in Appraisal-based Returns”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 4:327-345.
18.Geltner D., 1993a, “Temporal Aggregation in Real Estate Return Indices”, Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 21:141-166.
Geltner D., 1993b, “Estimating Market Values from Appraised Values without Assuming an Efficient Market”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 8:325-345.
19.Hansz, J. A., 2004, “Prior Transaction Price Induced Smoothing: Testing and Calibrating the Quan-Quigley Model at the Disaggregate Level”, Journal of Property Research, 21(4):321-336.
20.Ibbotson, R., and L. B. Siegel, 1984, “Real Estate Return: a Comparison with Other Investment”, AREUEA, 12:219-242.
21.Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky, 1973, “On the Psychology of Prediction”, Psychological Review, 80(4):237-251.
22.Kinnard, W. N., M. Lenk and E. M. Worzala, 1997, “Client Pressure in the Commercial Appraisal Industry: How Prevalent Is It?” Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, 15(3): 233–244.
23.Lai, T.Y., and K. Wang, 1998, “Appraisal Smoothing: The Other Side of Story”, Real Estate Economics, 26(3): 511-535.
24.Levy, D. and Schuck, E., 1999, “The influence of clients on valuations”, Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 17(4):380-400.
25.McAllister, P., A. Baum, N. Crosby, P. Gallimore and A. Gray, 2003, “Appraiser behavior and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence”, Journal of Property Research, 20(3): 261-280.
26.Mullainathan, S. and R. Thaler, 2001, “Behavioral Economics”, International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences, Oxford, UK:Pergamon.
27.Quan, D. C., and J. M. Quigley, 1991, “Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 4: 127-146.
28.Ross, S., and R. Zisler, 1987, “Managing Real Estate Portfolio, Part 3: A Close look at Equity Real Estate Risk”, Goldman Sachs Real Estate Research, November.
29.Vanderford, S. E., Mimura, Y. and Sweancy, A. L., 2005, “A Hedonic price Comparison of Manufacture and Site-built homes in the Non-MSA USA”, The Journal of Real Estate Research, 27(1): 83-104.

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