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研究生:陳麗文
研究生(外文):Li-WenChen
論文名稱:高雄都會公園亞洲錦蛙族群動態分析
論文名稱(外文):Modeling the population dynamics of Asian Painted Frogs (Kaloula pulchra) in Kaohsiung Metropolitan Park
指導教授:李亞夫
指導教授(外文):Ya-Fu Lee
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:生物多樣性研究所
學門:生命科學學門
學類:生物學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2012
畢業學年度:100
語文別:中文
論文頁數:73
中文關鍵詞:亞洲錦蛙Kaloula pulchra外來種族群參數族群量估算AICJolley-Seber full model
外文關鍵詞:Asian Painted FrogKaloula pulchraalien speciespopulation parameterspopulation estimationAICJolley-Seber full model
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外來種的問題已被認為是造成全球物種滅絕的重要因素之一,許多地區開始研究外來種對環境、生態、經濟及健康帶來的影響,並探討解決問題的方法。而台灣的外來兩棲類-亞洲錦蛙 (Kaloula pulchra Gray 1831),原產於東南亞地區,於1998年被學者記錄後,目前已在南台灣的台南市、高雄市及屏東縣地區建立了穩定的族群。本研究於2010年與2011年針對高雄都會公園的亞洲錦蛙族群進行生態調查,以標記再捕捉法 (Capture-Mark-Recapture) 蒐集個體,再利用Jolley-Seber full model估算族群量並分析調查當天的日均溫、相對濕度、當日降雨量、3日累積雨量、7日累積雨量、與全日射量等環境因子對族群量的影響。此外,藉由調整族群參數設計不同移除方案,模擬移除後對未來10年的族群量變化,以提供日後族群控制或移除的設計參考。
調查發現高雄都會公園之亞洲錦蛙生殖季為4月至9月,但生殖活動旺盛的時期在生殖季的前期 (4月中至6月)。從族群量與當日環境因子的相關分析結果中,捕捉量與降雨量和相對濕度有顯著正相關,而與溫度和全日射量有顯著負相關,此結果與亞洲錦蛙會在降雨過後大量出現進行生殖活動的野外調查經驗相符。以AIC (Akaike’s Information Criterion)分析雌蛙再捕捉數據,發現以存活率固定且遭遇率隨每次調查變動的模式為最適配模型。
本研究將亞洲錦蛙生活史分成2個時期:(1)幼體期:卵、蝌蚪與小蛙;(2)成體期:性熟個體。再依此建立族群投影矩陣 (population projection matrix) 並調整族群參數,進而模擬移除不同時期的個體對族群量的變化。結果發現,在不考慮環境承載量及天敵抑制等因素下,若不進行族群管理,高雄市都會公園之族群在10年後將會暴增約11600倍;而單獨移除卵與蝌蚪需要移除50%以上,而移除小蛙與成蛙才需要移除60%以上能達到抑制族群的目標,但AIC分析出的最適配模型估算遭遇率31.8%可說明,小蛙與成蛙的移除比例很難達到60%。因此移除工作應以水域生活史的個體為主,陸域生活史的個體為輔,建議以移除30% 以下的小蛙與成蛙搭配卵與蝌蚪的方案 (方案D1~D3),可能是較合適的移除設計。
未來若能掌控所有的生殖水域,持續進行撈捕或在水域上方放置阻擋物使雌蛙無法成功產卵,即可輕鬆提高移除卵與蝌蚪的效率。而小蛙與成蛙的捕捉需要大量的人力與適當的時機配合 (如:降雨過後),較難提高移除比例,因此能有效的管理生殖水域才是抑制亞洲錦蛙族群的重要關鍵。
Alien species are considered one of the main factors threatening global biodiversity and causing extinction. Many countries have initiated to address the impacts of alien species on the environments, ecosystems, economy, and human welfare, and to search strategies to regulate populations of invasive species and to reduce their impacts. The Asian Painted Frog, Kaloula pulchra Gray 1831, is distributed mainly in the Southeast Asia. The invasion of Asian Painted Frogs was first reported in 1998, and since then they have established populations in southern Taiwan, including Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Pingtung County.
This study investigated Asian Painted Frogs in Kaohsiung Metropolitan Park between 2010 and 2011. I used capture-mark-recapture method and Jolly-Seber full model to estimate the size of their population in the park. I also examined the effects of environmental factors, including daily mean temperature, relative humidity, daily precipitation, 3-day accumulated precipitation, 7-day accumulated precipitation, and the level of global solar radiation on the population size. In addition, I manipulated population parameters to model the dynamics of population size for over a period of 10 years, and suggested recommended removal strategies based on the results.
In Kaohsiung Metropolitan Park, the breeding season of Asian Painted Frogs spanned from April to September, but the most intensive reproductive activity occurred in mid-April to June. The size of their population was positively correlated with daily precipitation and relative humidity, but negatively correlated with the daily mean temperature and the level of global solar radiation.
I divided the life cycle of Asian Painted Frogs to two main stages: (1) pre-adult stage, including eggs, tadpoles, and juveniles; and (2) adult stage which was composed of mature individuals only. I used population projection matrix to model the dynamics of population size over 10 years. Given the assumptions of a negligible predation and below the carrying capacity, the population size was estimated to burst up to 11600 in the park, if no proper control or management strategies were practiced. Focusing on either eggs and tadpoles, or only juveniles and adults, however, required removing over 60% to stop the population growth. The encounter rate of only 31.8% generated from AIC (Akaike’s Information Criterion) indicated that it was not possible to remove 60% of juveniles and adults in the field. The model prediction suggested that removing lesser than 30% of juveniles and adults together with eggs and tadpoles (Scenario D1~D3) resulted in the fittest removal strategy.
In conclusion, controlling juvenile and adult Asian Panted Frogs demanded a larger proportion of efforts. If the management or control plans could cover all the breeding sites or properly interfere with female egg-laying, it would increase the efficiency of population control. Managing potential breeding sites effectively should be the first priority to control the populations of Asian Painted Frogs.

摘要 I
致謝 V
目錄 VI
表次 VIII
圖次 IX
附次 X
前言
一、研究動機與目的 1
二、文獻回顧 2
(1)外來種名詞釋義 2
(2)外來種引入對本地生態的影響 3
(3)亞洲錦蛙基本介紹 4
(4)外來種移除策略之模式分析 5
材料與方法
一、實驗樣區 7
二、調查方法 7
(1)穿越線取樣法 (Strip transect sampling) 7
(2)定量隔離空間取樣法 (Quantitative Enclosure Sampling) 8
(3)標記再捕捉法 (Capture-mark-recapture , CMR) 8
三、資料分析
(1)族群量估算 10
(2)雄蛙、雌蛙與小蛙吻肛長對時間的關係 11
(3)族群動態與環境因子的複迴歸分析 11
(4)建立族群參數 12
(5)族群動態模擬 13
結果
一、亞洲錦蛙基本資料彙整 15
(1)平均窩卵數、卵孵化率、蝌蚪平均密度與性別比 15
(2)雄蛙、雌蛙與小蛙的捕捉百分比 15
二、族群量估算 16
三、雄蛙、雌蛙與小蛙吻肛長對時間的關係 17
四、族群動態與環境因子的複迴歸分析 18
五、最適配模式分析 19
六、參數模擬移除方案對族群量的影響 19
討論
一、高雄都會公園亞洲錦蛙族群結構的變化 21
(1)族群結構變化 21
(2)族群性比 (Operational Sex Ratio , OSR) 22
(3)族群捕捉百分比 23
(4)不同性別再捕捉率 24
二、以最適配模式估算存活率與遭遇率 25
三、雄蛙、雌蛙、與小蛙吻肛長對時間的關係 26
四、環境因子對亞洲錦蛙族群變動的影響 26
(1)實際捕捉量與環境因子的相關性 27
(2)族群估算量與環境因子的相關性 28
五、不同移除方案對族群量的影響 29
六、移除建議 30
參考文獻 32
表一、2010年高雄都會公園每月捕捉個體數(捕捉百分比) 40
表二、2011年高雄都會公園每週捕捉個體數(捕捉百分比) 41
表三a、2010年亞洲錦蛙的族群估算量 42
表三b、2010年亞洲錦蛙的族群估算量與存活率的95%信賴區間 42
表四a、2010年亞洲錦蛙的成蛙估算量(剔除小蛙) 43
表四b、2010年亞洲錦蛙的成蛙估算量與存活率的95%信賴區間 43
表五、2010年亞洲錦蛙小蛙估算量 44
表六a、2011年亞洲錦蛙的族群估算量 45
表六b、2011年亞洲錦蛙的族群估算量與存活率的95%信賴區間 46
表七a、2010年捕捉個體之平均吻肛長 47
表七b、2011年捕捉個體之平均吻肛長 48
表七c、2010年與2011年資料合併後,捕捉個體之平均吻肛長 49
表八、2011年每週捕捉量及族群估算量與6種環境因子之複迴歸係數 50
表九a、雌蛙存活率(Φ)與遭遇率(p)之最適配模型選擇 51
表九b、以最適配模型分析的存活率(Φ)及遭遇率(p)之估計值 51
表十a、高雄都會公園亞洲錦蛙移除方案A~C之模擬參數 52
表十b、高雄都會公園亞洲錦蛙移除方案D1~D3之模擬參數 53
表十c、高雄都會公園亞洲錦蛙移除方案D4 ~D5之模擬參數 54
圖一、亞洲錦蛙世界分佈圖。橘色色塊的地區代表有個體出現的紀錄 55
圖二、2011年每週捕捉量與族群估算值與標準誤 56
圖三、高雄市都會公園園區配置圖 57
圖四、2010年與2011年每月雄蛙、雌蛙及小蛙之捕捉百分比 58
圖五、2010年與2011年捕捉個體之吻肛長與時間關係圖 59
圖六、模擬未來10年方案A對亞洲錦蛙族群量的影響 60
圖七、模擬未來10年移除方案B對亞洲錦蛙總族群量的影響 61
圖八、模擬未來10年移除方案C對亞洲錦蛙總族群量的影響 62
圖九a、模擬未來10年移除方案D1與D2對亞洲錦蛙總族群量的影響 63
圖九b、模擬未來10年移除方案D3與D4對亞洲錦蛙總族群量的影響 64
圖九c、模擬未來10年移除方案D5對亞洲錦蛙總族群量的影響 65
附錄一、2010年高雄市都會公園每月連續捕捉之累積個體數 66
附錄二、高雄都會公園亞洲錦蛙以方案A、方案B推估未來10年之族群量 67
附錄三、高雄都會公園亞洲錦蛙以方案C推估未來10年之族群量 68
附錄四、高雄都會公園亞洲錦蛙以方案D1推估未來10年之族群量 69
附錄五、高雄都會公園亞洲錦蛙以方案D2推估未來10年之族群量 70
附錄六、高雄都會公園亞洲錦蛙以方案D3推估未來10年之族群量 71
附錄七、高雄都會公園亞洲錦蛙以方案D4推估未來10年之族群量 72
附錄八、高雄都會公園亞洲錦蛙以方案D5推估未來10年之族群量 73
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