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研究生:歐惠晴
研究生(外文):Hui-ChingOu
論文名稱:緊急疏散下避難收容所區位選擇之雙層模式建立與分析
論文名稱(外文):A Bi-level Model for Optimal Shelter Selection in Emergency Evacuation
指導教授:胡大瀛胡大瀛引用關係
指導教授(外文):Ta-Yin Hu
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:交通管理學系碩博士班
學門:運輸服務學門
學類:運輸管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2012
畢業學年度:100
語文別:英文
論文頁數:102
中文關鍵詞:雙層規劃模型區位問題緊急疏散避難收容所
外文關鍵詞:Bi-level Programming ModelLocation ProblemEmergency EvacuationShelter
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:1
  • 點閱點閱:228
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
因近數十年來天災人禍之發生,緊急事件管理遂成為重要的全球議題。由於威脅生命安全的災害將不預期地發生,因此,一個有效率的緊急疏散計劃,對於減輕即將到來之災害影響程度是至關重要的。然而,現行設計之運輸基礎設施可能無法提供足夠之道路容量來因應緊急疏散過程中所產生的疏散需求。為解決緊急疏散時可能面臨的交通擁擠現象,運輸部門應規劃設計適當的疏散計畫來提昇疏散效率。

由於疏散路徑與預定避難收容所位置息息相關,為制定完備的疏散計畫,避難收容所區位規劃應是政府必須優先處理的重要問題。除此之外,疏散者之疏散旅次分佈問題也應於評估候選避難收容所位置時納入考量。因此,本研究將利用雙層規劃模型分別探討避難收容所區位問題以及疏散旅次分佈問題。

本研究所提出之雙層模型適用於:在給定的疏散者需求量之下,求解得最佳避難收容所位置以及預定開放之避難收容所數量。本研究之實證分析為利用三組情境設計來探討高雄市三民區路網的緊急疏散問題。從數值實驗結果可得,本研究所提出之雙層模型可應用於相關單位在災前規劃階段時期,制定規劃周全的疏散計劃。
Emergency management has become an important issue around the world, since the happening of catastrophic natural and man-made disasters in recent decades. Life-threatening disasters may occur unexpectedly. Therefore, effective emergency evacuation plans are critical to alleviate the impact from approaching disasters. However, it is possible that the existing transportation infrastructure could not provide sufficient roadway capacity to meet the evacuation demand during the evacuation process. To deal with the possible traffic congestion in emergency evacuation, the transportation sector should design appropriate evacuation plans with the goal to enhance the efficiency of evacuation.

To make well-organized evacuation plans in Taiwan, the first priority of the government is to do the shelter planning since the evacuation routes are related to the destined shelters. Besides, the evacuation trip distribution problem for evacuees should be considered when evaluate the locations of potential shelters. Therefore, a bi-level programming model is proposed to combine with the shelter location problem and the evacuation trip distribution problem in this research.

This bi-level model for shelter locations is appropriate to search for the optimal shelter locations and the optimal number of shelters along with their locations in a given demand level to evacuate the evacuees. Three scenarios in the San-min district of the Kaohsiung City in Taiwan are studied in this research. From the result of numerical experiments, this bi-level model is applicable for pre-planning phase for the authority to make well-rounded evacuation plans.

ABSTRACT I
ABSTRACT(CHINESE) II
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS III
TABLE OF CONTENTS IV
LIST OF TABLES VII
LIST OF FIGURES VIII
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Research Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Problem Statement 4
1.3 Research Objectives 4
1.4 Research Flowchart 5
1.5 Overview 6
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 8
2.1 Emergency Evacuation 8
2.1.1 Types of Evacuation 8
2.1.2 Flood Evacuation 10
2.1.3 Hurricane Evacuation 11
2.1.4 Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation 14
2.2 Evacuation Trip Distribution Problem 15
2.3 Location Problem 17
2.4 Bi-level Programming Model 18
2.5 Traffic Simulators 21
2.6 Summary 22
CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 24
3.1 Problem Statement and Research Assumptions 24
3.2 Model Formulation 26
3.2.1 Shelter Location Problem 27
3.2.2 Evacuation Trip Distribution Problem 28
3.3 Bi-level Programming Framework 31
3.4 Solution Procedure 33
3.5 Summary 35
CHAPTER 4 PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT 36
4.1 Shelter Location Problem 36
4.1.1 The Principles of Evaluating Potential Shelters 36
4.1.2 Solution Procedure of Shelter Location Problem 38
4.1.3 Parameter Settings of Shelter Location Problem 43
4.2 Evacuation Trip Distribution Problem 44
4.2.1 Solution Procedure of Evacuation Trip Distribution Problem 44
4.2.2 Parameter Settings of Evacuation Trip Distribution Problem 46
4.3 Summary 46
CHAPTER 5 NUMERICAL ANALYSIS 47
5.1 Basic Experiment 47
5.1.1 Testing Network and the Scenario of Basic Experiment 47
5.1.2 Solution Procedure of Basic Experiment 50
5.1.3 The Results of Basic Experiment 52
5.2 Sensitivity Analysis 54
5.2.1 Scenario – Effect of Shelter Capacity 55
5.2.2 Scenario – Effect of Unit Transportation Cost 56
5.2.3 Scenario – Effect of Shelter Setup Cost 57
5.3 Summary 59
CHPATER 6 EMPIRICAL EXPERIMENTS 60
6.1 Data Collection 60
6.1.1 Potential Shelter List in the San-min District 63
6.1.2 The Process of Estimating Shelter Capacity 63
6.2 Experiment Settings 65
6.3 Scenario 1 69
6.4 Scenario 2 76
6.5 Scenario 3 82
6.6 Summary 88
CHAPTER 7 CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS 90
7.1 Conclusions 90
7.2 Suggestions 91
REFERENCES 93
APPENDIX 1 THE SAN-MIN DISTRICT FIRST HOUSEHOLD REGISTRATION DATA 99
APPENDIX 2 THE SAN-MIN DISTRICT SECOND HOUSEHOLD REGISTRATION DATA 101
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