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研究生(外文):Tianhoun SibiriEdouard
論文名稱(外文):Associations between climatic factors and diseases pattern in Ouagadougou
指導教授(外文):Huey-Jen Su
外文關鍵詞:climatic factorsmalariadiarrheaOuagadougou
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研究將疾病案例以性別、年齡層與懷孕狀態等進行分層,並利用Spearman’s rank相關係數初探氣候條件分別對瘧疾與腹瀉的相關性。再以廣義加乘模型波式回歸量化評估氣候條件的變動對於不同性別及年齡層的瘧疾及腹瀉的影響程度。
結果發現,氣候條件中降雨及相對濕度與瘧疾呈現正相關,而溫度與瘧疾成負相關。但在腹瀉的部份,並沒有一致的相關性。每月累積降雨量每增加30毫米會增加25.5% (95% CIs: 25.5-29.1%)的瘧疾風險。月平均相對濕度每增加1%,會增加3.2% (95% CIs: 3.1-3.3%)的瘧疾風險,而當溫度增加時,瘧疾的發生會下降。氣候條件的變化對於腹瀉的影響沒有一致的結果。我們的研究結果發現,降雨和濕度可能是一個潛在可以作為預測瘧疾與腹瀉發生的氣候條件因子。
This study had characterized the relationship between weather parameters malaria/diarrhea incidence in Ouagadougou in Burkina-Faso and to indicate which weather factors are potential predictors of malaria and diarrhea occurrence.
Database integrated monthly weather parameters from “Meteo-Burkina”, including temperature, humidity and precipitation, and major infectious diseases monthly incidence for each of the 5 health districts of Ouagadougou from the regional health directorate from 2006 to 2010. Diseases considered were: severe malaria, uncomplicated malaria, bloody diarrhea, diarrhea without blood. Data also included age and gender distribution of the cases. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient designated the significant correlations and lagged effects and Generalized Additive Model (GAM) under Poisson regression was used to assess the relative risk (RR) due to climate variability.
We found significant positive correlations among precipitation, relative humidity and malaria where temperatures were negatively correlated. Consistent correlation hasn’t been found with diarrhea. For malaria, the higher RR, due to each 30 mm increase in precipitation was up to 25.5% (95% CIs: 25.5-29.1%). Relative humidity showed an increase as high as 3.2% (95% CIs: 3.1-3.3%) while increase in temperature was related to a decrease. Diarrhea has demonstrated an irregular relative risk pattern due to weather variations.
Findings suggested that precipitation and humidity are of great potential to be considered as effective predictors of malaria and diarrhea appear to be more sensitive to extreme weather events.

摘要 i
I-1 Background 1
I-2 Study objectives 2
II-1 Weather and Disease 4
II-2 Generalities on Malaria 5
II-3 Generalities on Diarrhea 9
II-4 Country profile 10
III-1 Type of study 13
III-2 Study area 13
III-3 Study design and statistical analysis 14
III-4 Data collection 17
IV-1 General patterns 19
IV-2 Descriptive Statistics 19
IV-3 Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient ( ) 20
IV-4 Generalized Additive Model (GAM) 21
V-1 Discussion 23
V-2 Limitations 26
V-3 Conclusion 27
VI-References 29
Appendix I: Weather data request letter to the director of “Meteo-Burkina” 74
Appendix II: Health data request letter to the director of “Centre Regional Directorate” 75
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