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研究生:楊沛漳
論文名稱:利用Rosenblueth點估計建立考量土壤參數不確定性之 降雨引發無限邊坡破壞機率模式
論文名稱(外文):On the Use of Rosenblueth Point Estimation Method for Development of Rainfall-induced Infinite Slope Failure Probability Model Considering Uncertainty in Soil Parameters
指導教授:蔡東霖蔡東霖引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立嘉義大學
系所名稱:土木與水資源工程學系研究所
學門:工程學門
學類:土木工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:100
語文別:中文
中文關鍵詞:無限邊坡降雨Rosenblueth點估計法
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本研究首先根據已發展完成之降雨引發淺崩塌物理基礎模式,進一步利用Rosenblueth點估計法,建立考量土壤參數不確定性之降雨引發無限邊坡破壞機率模式。模式建立完成後,再藉由不同坡角、土層厚度、地下水位及降雨條件之設計案例,利用蒙地卡羅模擬結果,驗證其正確性及適用性。在4個土壤參數隨機變數中,有效摩擦角、有效凝聚力及飽和土壤單位重用於土壤破壞模擬之代數方程式計算,而僅有飽和水力傳導係數用於地下水文模擬之偏微分方程式計算,且兩者不需耦合求解。因此,實際上進行耗時之地下水文模擬計算僅需2次,而非理論上所述之16次。所以,本研究利用Rosenblueth點估計法,所建立之降雨引發無限邊坡破壞機率模式,對廣域尺度之模擬應具有其實用性。
目 錄
摘要 ................................................................................................................ i
Abstract ......................................................................................................... ii
誌 謝 ............................................................................................................ iii
目 錄 .............................................................................................................. I
表 目 錄 ..................................................................................................... III
圖 目 錄 ..................................................................................................... IV
符號說明 ...................................................................................................... V
第一章 緒論 ................................................................................................. 1
1.1研究動機與目的 ............................................................................. 1
1.2文獻回顧 ......................................................................................... 2
1.3研究方法與步驟 ............................................................................. 7
1.4章節介紹 ......................................................................................... 8
第二章 降雨引發無限邊坡破壞模式簡介............................................ 10
2.1地下水文及土壤破壞模擬 ........................................................... 10
2.2 模式所需輸入條件說明 .............................................................. 13
II
第三章 降雨引發無限邊坡破壞機率模式之建立與測試....................... 16
3.1土壤參數說明 ............................................................................... 16
3.2 Rosenblueth點估計法簡介 .......................................................... 18
3.3 點估計法適用性探討 .................................................................. 22
3.4假設案例之測試 ........................................................................... 26
第四章 結論與建議 ................................................................................... 28
4.1結論 ............................................................................................... 28
4.2建議 ............................................................................................... 29
參考文獻 ..................................................................................................... 31
附錄 ............................................................................................................. 39
參考文獻
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