臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究探討台灣過去十一年來支付政策的趨勢，利用從2000年至2010年台灣上市公司資料進行實證研究。首先，我們觀察出台灣上市公司在支付政策上以發放現金股利為主流，而實施股票購回卻僅占少數。除了2008年發生金融海嘯，現金股利與股票購回間出現短暫替代關係，其餘期間不易看出兩者間有明顯關係存在。其次，本研究利用股利預測誤差模型，來驗證現金股利與股票購回間是否為替代關係。實證結果發現，股票購回殖利率與股利預測誤差間呈現顯著正相關，意謂著兩者間呈現非替代關係。最後，使用多項式邏吉斯模型來檢驗分析影響支付政策選擇的因素，實證發現指出，當公司盈餘波動度愈高、公司價值愈被低估、負債比率愈高，公司愈傾向將股票購回；而非營業利益愈高、機構投資人持股比例愈高時，愈傾向現金股利的發放；規模愈大的公司，則是愈傾向選擇同時股利及購回的方式。

This paper provides a tendency on payout policies in Taiwan’s companies during the 2000 to 2010 over the past 11 years. First, we observe that cash dividends are the most common payment, but stock repurchases are few. We also find that temporary substitution between cash dividends and stock repurchases during the period of financial crisis from 2008. We find no clear relationship except for financial crisis period. Second, we use dividend forecast error model to examine whether firms substitute repurchases for cash dividends. Our results indicate that a positive relationship between dividend forecast error and share repurchase yield. The model demonstrates that two payment policies are non-substitution. Finally, we use multinomial logit model to explore the factors affecting the choice between cash dividends and stock repurchases. We find that firms with higher earnings volatility, undervaluation and debt ratio are more likely to adopt shock repurchases; the firms have more non-operating profit and higher institutional ownership are more likely to adopt cash dividends; firms with larger firm size are more likely to adopt both dividends and shock repurchases.

目　錄
中文摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
致 謝 iii
目 錄 iv
表目錄 v
圖目錄 vi
第壹章　緒論 1
第貳章　文獻探討及研究假說 4
第一節　現金股利與股票購回之替代或互補關係 4
第二節　影響支付政策決定因素 7
第三節　研究假說 10
第參章　研究設計 13
第一節　研究設計 13
第二節　變數定義與衡量 16
第三節　資料來源與樣本選取 18
第肆章　實證結果與分析 19
第一節　敘述統計 19
第二節　相關係數分析 22
第三節　實證結果分析 25
第伍章　結論與建議 31
第一節　研究結果 19
第二節　研究建議 33
參考文獻 34

參考文獻
一、中文文獻
[1]王象康，2005，台灣上市公司現金股利與庫藏股政策之探討，國立交通大學財務金融系未出版碩士論文。
[2]陳韻如，2008，台灣上市公司庫藏股及現金股利替代性之探討，嶺東科技大學財務金融系未出版碩士論文。
[3]湯翠萍，2004，財務彈性-上市公司實施庫藏股之實證研究，國立中山大學財務金融系未出版碩士論文。
[4]鄭桂蕙，2005，庫藏股買回對股利發放之影響，會計評論，第四十一期：77-101。
[5]蕭樹芬，2009，現金股利與庫藏股間的決策關係，國立臺灣大學管理學院財務金融系未出版碩士論文。
[7]顏月吟，2006，機構投資人持股意願之探討，國立彰化師範大學商業教育學系未出版碩士論文。

二、英文文獻
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[12]Jagannathan, M., Stephens, C. P., and Weisbach, M. S. (2000). Financial Flexibility and the Choice between Dividends and Stock Repurchases. Journal of Financial Economics, 57, 355-384.
[13]Jensen, M. C. (1986). Agency Cost of Free cash Flow, Corporate Finance and Takeovers. American Economic Review, 76(2),323-329.
[14]Julio, B., and Ikenberry, D.L. (2004). Reappeaing Dividends. The Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 16(4), 89-100.
[15]Lintner, J. (1956). Distribution of Incomes of Corporations among Dividends, Retained earnings and Taxes. American Economic Review, 46, 97-113.
[16]Modigliani, F., and Miller, M. H. (1961). Dividend Policy, Growth and the Valuation of Shares. Journal of Business, 411-433.
[17]Ofer, A. R., and Thakor, A. V. (1987). A Theory of Stock Price Responses to Alternative Corporate Cash Disbursement Methods: Stock Repurchases and Dividends. The Journal of Finance, 42(2), 365-394.