跳到主要內容

臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

(3.236.68.118) 您好!臺灣時間:2021/07/31 20:06
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果 :::

詳目顯示

我願授權國圖
: 
twitterline
研究生:林都
研究生(外文):Lin, Du
論文名稱:以動態產業系統探討全國產業經濟永續發展之策略
論文名稱(外文):Dynamic Industrial System Approach to the Industrial Sustainability Development Based on National Economy
指導教授:王小璠王小璠引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立清華大學
系所名稱:工業工程與工程管理學系
學門:工程學門
學類:工業工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2012
畢業學年度:100
論文頁數:101
中文關鍵詞:永續發展產業關聯表時間序列分析動態產業系統產業策略
外文關鍵詞:sustainability developmentinput and output analysistime series analysisdynamic industrial systemindustrial strategies
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:135
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
生長於宇宙中獨一無二的美麗星球,對於每一寸土地,有著不可磨滅的依賴感情;身為地球的一份子,保護提供我們資源的星球,是我們的責任。而石化能源的逐漸耗竭和溫室效應的議題將對於地球造成時代性的衝擊與巨變。因此,本研究主要是以國內經濟的角度探討環境與經濟永續經營的產業策略。
自從諾貝爾得主經濟學家Leontief於1936年提出產業關聯表以幣值的方式量化所有產業之間的交易量,表現總體經濟系統中產業彼此之間的投入及產出量之後,各國政府相繼使用產業關聯表統計國內產業結構作為經濟建設之依據。
本研究結合產業關聯分析和時間序列分析提出完整的動態產業系統模式,並根據政府不同的節能減碳目標設定不同的情境。以台灣為實際案例,將所有產業劃分成9個我們有興趣的產業別,建立動態產業系統,預測未來產業的關聯狀態到2025年,其中包括了產業供給需求結構、各產業佔總體國民生產總額比例、產業影響度及敏感度等。因此,我們可以觀察各產業投入、發展和影響的趨勢提出節能減碳策略,提供政府制訂相關的因應產業政策之參考,以達到環境與經濟永續共存的雙贏結果。



As human beings living in the so-called “blue planet,” our main responsibility lies in protecting the earth and its resources. The exhaustion of petrochemical energy and the greenhouse effect have caused huge impacts on our lives. With these in mind, specifically their impact on the environment and the economy, this study discusses the coping strategies used in dealing with the industrial sustainability issues from a national viewpoint.
Since the Nobel economist Wassily Leontief first proposed the input-output analysis to investigate the inter-relations of domestic industry sectors in 1936, many governments have conducted regular surveys to establish the industrial input-output tables for statistical purposes. Each table transforms business from every industry into quantitative input-output relations in a national-scaled economic system.
In this study, we propose a Dynamic Industrial System (DIS), which combines the input-output analysis with the time series analysis. Furthermore, we consider different scenarios for energy conservation and carbon reduction to facilitate the strategy development of the industrial sectors.
The case of the Taiwan economy is adopted to illustrate the proposed system. The proposed DIS is applied by classifying all domestic industries into nine sectors. Then, the time series analysis is conducted to predict the related input and output factors up to the year 2025. This includes the structure of supply and demand, industrial structure, the degree of industrial influence and sensitivity, and so on. Thus, we manage to observe the development trend of each focal industry sector included in this work. By considering the different scenarios and observing the changes in the industrial input, effect and development, proper industrial strategies are developed through which a government can attain a win-win situation in both the environment and the economy.

ABSTRACT I
中文摘要 III
ACKNOLEDGEMENTS IV
Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Organization of the Thesis 2
Chapter 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 3
2.1 The Issues of Sustainability Development 3
2.2 Input and Output Analysis 6
2.3 Time Series Analysis 10
2.3.1 Autoregressive Model (AR) 11
2.3.2 Moving Average Model (MA) 12
2.3.3 Mixed Autoregressive-Moving Averge Model (ARMA) 12
2.3.4 Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) 12
2.4 Summary and Conclusions 13
Chapter 3 METHODOLOGY OF THE PROPOSED DYNAMIC INDUSTRIAL SYSTEM 15
3.1 The Proposed Dynamic Industrial System (DIS) 15
3.2 Time Series Analysis in DIS 17
3.2.1 The VAR (p) model 17
3.2.2 The ARMA(p,q) model 21
3.3 Scenario Analysis by DIS 23
3.4 Discussion and Conclusion 24
Chapter 4 ILLUSTRATIVE CASE OF TAIWAN 26
4.1 Data Collection and Classification 26
4.2 Data Analysis 28
4.2.1 Preliminary Stage by Reclassification 28
4.2.2 Leontief Inverse Matrix 29
4.2.3 Analysis of the Industrial Structure 30
4.2.4 Influence and Sensitivity Analysis 32
4.2.5 Conclusion of Input and Output Analysis 33
4.3 Forecast of Industrial Structures 34
4.3.1 Prediction of the Other Input in I/O Table 35
4.3.2 Prediction of the Final Demand in I/O Table 40
4.3.3 Prediction of the Input Coefficient Table 45
4.3.4 Prediction of the Integrated State of Industrial Relation 48
4.4 Analysis of Industrial Influence and Sensitivity 52
4.5 Scenario Analysis 56
4.6 Discussion and Conclusion 61
Chapter 5 CONCLUSION AND FUTURE STUDY 64
REFERENCES 67
APPENDIX 1 The VAR(1) for Other Input 69
APPENDIX 2 The Predicted Product Transaction 78
APPENDIX 3 The Predicted Input Coefficients 90

[1]行政院主計處,綠色國民所得網站 , http://win.dgbas.gov.tw/dgbas03/ca/green/index.html
[2] 陳旭昇,時間序列分析-總體經濟與財務金融之應用,東華書局(2007)
[3] 楊亦農,時間序列分析-經濟與財務上之應用,雙葉書廊有限公司(2009)
[4] 行政院主計處,產業關聯表編制報告,http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=1 (2010)
[5] Box, G. E., G. M. Jenkins, and G. C. Reinsel (1994), Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 3rd ed., New Jersey: Prentice-Holland
[6] Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Sustainable energy police convention, 2008
[7] Chambers, Nicky with Craig Simmons, Mathis Wackernagel, Sharing Nature's Interest: Ecological footprints as an indicator of sustainability, Earthscan, London (2000)
[8] Chang Wen-Ming, “Integrating Green GDP with Input-Output Analysis for the Study of Eastern Region Industrial Developments,” essay of National Cheng Kung University, Urban Planning (2008)
[9] Enders, W, Applied Econometric Time Series, New York: John Willey & Sons, Inc (2004)
[10] Jerzy A. Filar, Jacek B. Krawczyk, “Sustainability Screw: Role of Relative Production and Abatement Time Scales,” Preprint submitted to PNAS (2010)
[11] Kmenta, J., Elements of Econometrics. 2nd ed., New York: Macmillan Publishing Co (1986)
[12] Kwiatkowski, Danis, Peter C.B. Phillips, Peter Schmidt & Yongcheol Shin, “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary against the Alternative of a Unit Root,” Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178 (1992)
[13] Leotief, W. W., “Quantitative input-output relation in the economic system of the United States” The Review of Economics and Statistics, XVIII, 105-125 (1936)
[14] Ministry of Economic Affairs, National energy conservation and carbon reduction program, 2010
[15] Stock, James H. and Waston, Mark (2001), “Vector autoregressions”, Journal of Economic Perspective, 15(4), 101-115
[16] Wei Jin, Linyu Xu, Zhifeng Yang, “Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: Incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint,” Ecological Economics, 68, 2938–2949, (2009)
[17] William E R., “Ecological footprints and appropriated carrying capacity: what urban economics leaves out[J].” Environment and Urbanization, (4):121-130 (1992)

連結至畢業學校之論文網頁點我開啟連結
註: 此連結為研究生畢業學校所提供,不一定有電子全文可供下載,若連結有誤,請點選上方之〝勘誤回報〞功能,我們會盡快修正,謝謝!
QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top