臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究收集1958-2009年台灣海峽東部水域日別烏魚漁獲資料、太陽黑子、太平洋海域相關氣候因子與海水表面溫度等資料，利用小波分析法解明烏魚漁獲量與各氣候環境因子之週期變動特性，並配合衛星遙測以及模式演算資料探討氣候變異下水溫對於烏魚漁況之影響。結果如下:
(一) 太平洋十年震盪指數(PDO)、冬季西太平洋震盪指數(WPO)和雲彰隆起處冬季表水溫(SST)與烏魚漁獲量具有顯著相關，PDO與漁獲量於1980-2009年間有8-10年正相關變動週期，冬季WPO與漁獲量於1986-2009年間有8-10年之負相關變動週期，冬季雲彰隆起處表水溫(SST)與漁獲量於1958-1987有4-6年之負相關週期變動，且於1998-2009年也有8年左右之負相關週期變動。
(二) 烏魚主要漁獲位置從1977年後開始有明顯向北推移的情形，與每年冬季大陸沿岸流指標20°C等溫線之空間分布變動特性一致，且漁獲量與表水溫長期變動特性呈現同步反向之變動趨勢。此外，每年最高漁獲量出現時間主要集中在冬至前後，且與表水溫變動呈現一線性關係。
(三) 聖嬰年期間，大陸沿岸流勢力較弱不易越過雲彰隆起，漁獲呈現歉漁狀態；反聖嬰年期間，大陸沿岸流南下勢力增強，烏魚能夠沿著大陸沿岸流南下產卵，較易呈現豐漁狀態。聖嬰與反聖嬰年對烏魚漁獲影響週期較短，與前一年漁獲量比較，聖嬰年期間平均漁獲量較前一年少了34.7%，反聖嬰年期間平均漁獲量則較前一年高10.2%。

Grey mullet (Mugil cephalus L.) is one of the most important commercial species of fish in the coastal fisheries of Taiwan. In this study, we collected the long-term (1958-2009) records of grey mullet caught in Taiwan Strait, multi-timescale climatic indices, sunspot and sea surface temperature (SST) data to investigate influences on annual catch of grey mullet by wavelet analysis. The results are listed as follow:
(1) The significant coherence of grey mullet catches with the annual PDO showed a periodicity of 8-10 years after 1980, and the catches showed a periodicity of 8-10 years with winter WPO in 1985-2009, the catches also showed a periodicity of 4-6 years with winter SST in 1958-1987.
(2) The major fishing grounds of grey mullet moved northward from 1977, which consistent with the spatial distribution of 20°C isotherm of China Costal Current, and long-term fluctuation of mullet catch shows a negative relationship with SST. Furthermore, the date of annual maximum catch showed a lag releationship with the increase of SST.
(3) The China Coastal Current during La Niña events strengthen and bring more abundance of grey mullet migrating to Taiwan Strait. Comparing the ratio of mullet catch in the last year to El Niño and La Niña years, the former was lower than the latter.

目錄 I
表目錄 III
圖目錄 IV
摘要 VI
Abstract VIII
壹、 前言 1
一、 烏魚之生態簡介與特徵 1
二、 漁場環境與資源研究概況 2
三、 研究目的與動機 3
貳、 材料方法 5
一、 漁獲資料 5
二、 衛星遙測資料 5
三、 氣候變異因子 8
四、 小波轉換分析 12
參、 結果 14
一、 烏魚漁獲量與氣候因子之週期變動趨勢 14
二、 氣候變遷對烏魚漁況之影響 16
三、 ENSO現象與漁獲量年間變動之關係 18
肆、 討論 20
一、 氣候指數與漁獲之週期變動特性 20
二、 氣候變遷對烏魚漁況之影響 22
三、 ENSO現象與漁獲量年間變動之探討 24
伍、 結論 28
謝辭 29
參考文獻 31

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