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研究生:陳宣余
研究生(外文):Chen, Hsuanyu
論文名稱:分析碳密集度、人口數及發電量對經濟發展影響之研究
論文名稱(外文):The Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Intensity, Populations and Total Electricity on Economic Development
指導教授:陳宥杉陳宥杉引用關係
口試委員:陳重光張敬珣
口試日期:2012-06-12
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺北大學
系所名稱:企業管理學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2012
畢業學年度:100
語文別:中文
論文頁數:62
中文關鍵詞:總發電量人口數碳密集度經濟發展環境Kuznets曲線
外文關鍵詞:Total electricityPopulationsCarbon dioxide intensityEconomic developmentEnvironmental Kuznets curve
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  • 被引用被引用:1
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  • 下載下載:11
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本研究以1980-2010年全球125個國家的縱衡資料,研究人口數、碳密集度與發電量對經濟發展之影響。分析結果顯示碳密集度、人口數與經濟發展呈現倒U字型曲線,這也顯示若不積極控制二氧化碳排放,經濟發展將會受到阻礙。另外,總發電量與經濟發展成正向關係,但當總發電量到達一定程度後,對經濟發展的幫助會逐漸趨緩,此時,便可以環保為前提來考量發電方式。另外一個實證研究將樣本國分為已開發及開發中國家,重新檢驗影響碳密集度的主要因素,研究結果顯示人口數及發電量是影響碳密集度的主因。因此,在未來不論是已開發國家或是開發中國家,皆需抑制人口成長及改變發電結構,以趨緩碳密集度的攀升。
This study examines the analysis of population, carbon dioxide intensity and total electricity on economic development by using the panel data of 130 countries worldwide from 1980 to 2010. The results show that both of population and carbon dioxide intensity have inverse U-shaped influences upon economic development. It also indicates that if there is no control actively on carbon emissions, economic development would be hindered. Before total electricity reaches the optimal value, there have strongly positive relationship between total electricity and economic development. Total electricity would become less helpful to economic development gradually after it reaches the optimal value. Thus, we need to reconsider the way of generating power based on environmental consideration. The other empirical research divides sample countries as developed countries and developing countries to reexamine main factors that influence carbon dioxide intensity, the result show that populations and total electricity are main factors in influencing carbon dioxide intensity. Thus, in order to diminish the increasing of carbon dioxide intensity, both of developed countries and developing countries have to restrain the increasing of populations and change the structure of electric generation.
目錄
Abstract II
目錄 III
表次 IV
圖次 VI
第一章、緒論 1
第一節、研究背景 1
第二節、研究動機 3
第二章、文獻探討 9
第一節、碳排放與經濟發展 9
第二節、發電量與經濟發展 13
第三節、人口數與經濟發展 16
第三章、研究方法 21
第一節、資料來源 21
第二節、資料結構與變數定義 23
第三節 研究方法 27
第四章 研究結果 33
第一節 全球縱橫資料分析結果 33
第二節、環境Kuznets曲線之驗證 38
第三節、縱橫門檻迴歸 42
第五章、研究結論 49
第一節、研究發現 49
第二節、管理意涵 52
參考文獻 57


表次
表1- 1全球各區域二氧化碳排放量成長 6
表2- 1經濟成長與環境污染間關係之文獻整理 12
表2- 2 全球區域人口年成長率 18
表2- 3 已開發國家區域人口年成長率預測 18
表2- 4開發中國家區域人口年成長率預測 19
表3- 1世界銀行的國別收入分組標準 22
表4- 1 敘述統計量 32
表4- 2 變數間相關係數矩陣 32
表4-3全球環境Kuznets曲線之敘述統計量 38
表4-4全球環境Kuznets曲線之固定效果迴歸模型 39
表4-5影響碳密集度的主要因素之敘述性統計 39
表4-6影響碳密集度的主要因素之固定效果迴歸模型 40
表4-7已開發國家碳密集度、經濟發展與人口數(百萬)之門檻檢定 42
表4-8高所得國家碳密集度、經濟發展與發電量(十億千瓦小時) 之門檻檢定 43
表4-9開發中國家碳密集度、經濟發展與人口數(百萬)之門檻檢定 45
表4-10開發中國家碳密集度、經濟發展與發電量(十億千瓦)之門檻檢定 47
表5-1 2005年美國及中國發電結構比例 50



圖次
圖2-1 世界人均GDP與二氧化碳排放量 11
圖2- 2 全球二氧化碳排放比率 15
圖2- 3全球發電趨勢 15
圖2- 4 研究架構 19
圖4-1訓練資料與測試資料的RMSE收斂圖 33
圖4- 2碳密集度與人均GDP之關係 34
圖4-3人口總量與人均GDP之關係 35
圖4-4總發電量與人均GDP之關係 36

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