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研究生:楊文婷
研究生(外文):Wen-Ting Yang
論文名稱:台灣勞退新制對勞工流動率及薪資的影響
論文名稱(外文):The Impact of the Pension Reform on Job Mobility and Wage in Taiwan
指導教授:耿紹勛耿紹勛引用關係
指導教授(外文):Shao-Hsun Keng
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立高雄大學
系所名稱:應用經濟學系碩士班
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2012
畢業學年度:100
語文別:英文
論文頁數:36
中文關鍵詞:退休金流動率薪資
外文關鍵詞:PensionMobilityWageDifference-in-Difference-in-Differences (DDD)
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台灣於2005年7月實施新的勞工退休金制度(以下簡稱勞退新制),相較於舊制的「確定給付制」,新制採用「確定提撥制」,並規定雇主須每月提撥至少6%的勞工薪資於勞工的個人帳戶作為退休金。本文的研究目的在於估計此一變革對勞動流動率和薪資的影響。由於勞退新制並不適用於公部門勞工(包括公務人員與國營事業人員),我們可以利用公部門勞工做為對照組,採用difference-in-difference (DD) 進行估計,分析勞退新制對私部門勞工流動率的影響。實證結果顯示,勞退新制實施後勞動流動率反而減少了。此一結果可能受到私部門和公部門員工之間異質性的影響,所以我們又進一步找出另一組對照組來消除此異質性。台灣政府規定,新制實施後勞工有權利在五年內自由選擇新制或舊制,但是對於那些已經在同一家公司工作15年以上的勞工來說,新制不一定是最好的選擇。我們利用此特性,找到另一組對照組,我們稱作年輕勞工,進一步採用 difference-in-difference-in-differences (DDD)來估計勞退新制對流動率的影響。實證結果顯示,勞退新制會減少勞工流動的機率。相反的,當我們用年資作為解釋變數時,勞退新制反而會顯著的縮短大約1.11年的年資。由此可知,勞退新制能有效促進勞動流動率增加勞動市場的效率。在勞退新制對薪資的影響方面,駱明慶和楊子霆在(2009)已經利用DD 模型來估計勞退新制對薪資的影響,他們的結果發現勞退新制實施後會減少勞工薪資約6%,十分接近雇主須提撥的比率,顯示雇主可能將新制所增加的成本完全轉嫁給勞工。在此情況下,勞動需求可能為完全無彈性。我們進一步利用DDD模型來驗證此一結果,結果發現新制實施後只會減少3% 的勞工薪資。由此可知,新制所增加的成本只有一半可以轉嫁給勞工,而且勞動需求也非完全無彈性。
In July 2005, the pension for private-sector workers switched from the defined benefit (DB) plan to the defined contribution (DC) plan. The pension reform does not affect the public-sector workers, which created a natural experiment ideal for studying the effect of 2005 pension reform on mobility and wages. Using difference-in-differences approach, we find that the reform reduces the mobility probability by 0.019 percentage point and increase the tenure by 1.07 years. During the transition period, workers currently working have to decide whether to switch to DC plan within five years after the implementation date. This allows us creating an additional control group to eliminate the unobserved heterogeneity between private- and public-sector workers. Using difference-in-difference-in-differences (DDD) approach, the effect of pension reform on mobility is mixed. The mobility probability declines by 0.017 percentage point after the 2005 reform. On the other hand, the tenure decreases by 0.82 years after pension reform. Moreover, worker’s wage reduces by 3% after 2005 reform. Contrary to Luoh and Yang’s (2009) results, employers can only shift half of the increased cost due to reform to workers in our study. This implies that the labor demand is not perfect inelastic.
ABSTRACT i
I. Introduction 1
II. Review of the pension schemes in Taiwan 5
III.Empirical Strategies 8
III.A. Difference-in-Differences estimate 8
III.B. Difference-in-Difference-in-Differences Estimate10
III.B.1. The effect of pension reform on mobility 10
III.B.2. The impact of pension reform on wage 11
IV.Data 12
V.Empirical results 16
V.A. Difference-in-differences estimate 16
V.B. Difference-in-difference-in-differences estimate 20
V.B.1. The effect of pension reform on mobility 20
V.B.2. The effect of pension reform on wage 24
VI.Conclusion 26
Reference 28
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