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研究生:莊妙音
研究生(外文):Chanunpak Chamratthanasarn
論文名稱:國外直接投資與旅遊事業的關係—泰國的實證研究
論文名稱(外文):The Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Tourism:Evidence from Thailand
指導教授:王永昌王永昌引用關係
指導教授(外文):Yung-Chang Wang
口試委員:李揚方顯光王永昌
口試委員(外文):Yang LiHsien-Kuang FangYung-Chang Wang
口試日期:2012-01-06
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:中國文化大學
系所名稱:國際企業管理學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2012
畢業學年度:100
語文別:英文
論文頁數:64
中文關鍵詞:國外直接投資旅遊事業因果分析
外文關鍵詞:foreign direct investmenttourism,Granger causality test
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This study applies the time-series method to investigate the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and tourism in Thailand. The data cover the period from January 2001 to December 2010 at the monthly interval. The countries under investigation are the five East Asian countries. They include China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
FDI and tourism are found to be I(1) series and cointegrated for China, Japan, and South Korea. The Granger causality test is thus performed in the context of the vector error correction model. The results indicate that there is a bi-directional causality between tourism and FDI in South Korea and a uni-directional causality from FDI to tourism found in Japan and China. FDI is found to be I(1) and tourism to be I(0) for Hong Kong and Taiwan. The Granger causality test is thus performed in the context of the vector autoregressive model with the first difference of FDI and the level of tourism, both integrated of order 0. No causal relationship between FDI and tourism is found for Hong Kong and Taiwan. It is suggested that Thai government should endeavor to promote FDI and tourism in order to capture the benefits from FDI and tourism externalities.

This study applies the time-series method to investigate the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and tourism in Thailand. The data cover the period from January 2001 to December 2010 at the monthly interval. The countries under investigation are the five East Asian countries. They include China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
FDI and tourism are found to be I(1) series and cointegrated for China, Japan, and South Korea. The Granger causality test is thus performed in the context of the vector error correction model. The results indicate that there is a bi-directional causality between tourism and FDI in South Korea and a uni-directional causality from FDI to tourism found in Japan and China. FDI is found to be I(1) and tourism to be I(0) for Hong Kong and Taiwan. The Granger causality test is thus performed in the context of the vector autoregressive model with the first difference of FDI and the level of tourism, both integrated of order 0. No causal relationship between FDI and tourism is found for Hong Kong and Taiwan. It is suggested that Thai government should endeavor to promote FDI and tourism in order to capture the benefits from FDI and tourism externalities.

CONTENTS

ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………………… i
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS………………………………………………………... ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS………………………………..……………………….. iii
LIST OF TABLES………………………………………..……………………… v
LIST OF FIGURES……………………………………..……………………….. vi
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION…………………………………………… 1
1.1 Research Background and Motivation…………...…………………..... 1
1.2 Purpose of the Research…………………………………..…………… 6
1.3 Data and Research Methodology……………………….….………….. 7
1.4 Organization of the Research………………………………………….. 8
CHAPTER TWO: THAI ECONOMY AND POLICIES………………………... 9
2.1 A Brief of Thai economy……………………………………………… 9
2.2 FDI Policy of Thailand…....………………………….……………..… 11
2.3 Tourism Policy of Thailand….……….………………………………. 13
CHAPTER THREE: LITERATURE REVIEW……………….………………… 17
3.1 FDI and Economic Growth……………………………………………. 17
3.2 Tourism and Economic Growth.……………………………………… 20
3.3 FDI and Tourism………….…………………………………………… 24
CHAPTER FOUR: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY…..………………………. 28
4.1 Unit Root Test…………………………………………………………. 28
4.2 Cointegration Test…………………………………………………….. 31
4.3 Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR).………………………………… 33
4.4 Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)………….…………………... 33
4.5 Granger Causality Test………………………………………………... 34
CHAPTER FIVE: EMPIRICAL RESULTS………………………………….… 36
5.1 Data Collection…………...…………………………….…………..…. 37
5.2 Unit root test……………...…………………………….…………..…. 38
5.3 Cointegration test………...…………………………….…………...…. 44
5.4 VAR Model….…………...…………………………….…………..…. 46
5.5 VEC Model….….………...…………………………….………..……. 50
5.6 Granger Causality Test…...…………………………….……..………. 55
CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION…………………………………….…………. 58
REFERENCES…………………………………………………….……………. 60


LIST OF TABLES

Table 1-1 International Tourist Arrivals, 1990-2010………….……..….…. 2
Table 5-1 ADF, Unit Root Test on Original Series..…………………….…. 38
Table 5-2 PP, Unit Root Test on Original Series.……………………….…. 39
Table 5-3 The Stationarity of Series from ADF and PP Tests….……….…. 40
Table 5-4 KPSS, Unit Root Test on TOURIST_HK and FDI_JP Series…... 41
Table 5-5 The Stationarity of Series from ADF, PP and KPSS Tests….…... 42
Table 5-6 ADF and PP Tests for A Unit Root in the First Difference .....…. 43
Table 5-7 5 Sets of Variables Separated by Countries.…….…...…….……. 44
Table 5-8 Johansen Cointegration Tests (Trace)……………...……….…… 45
Table 5-9 Johansen Cointegration Tests (Eigenvalue)……………..….…… 45
Table 5-10 Estimation of the VAR Model for Hong Kong.…………………. 47
Table 5-11 Estimation of the VAR Model for Taiwan………………………. 49
Table 5-12 Estimation of the VEC Model for China.………..………………. 51
Table 5-13 Estimation of the VEC Model for Japan.………..………………. 52
Table 5-14 Estimation of the VEC Model for South Korea…………………. 54
Table 5-15 VEC Granger Causality Test for China....………………………. 55
Table 5-16 VAR Granger Causality Test for Hong Kong.….………………. 55
Table 5-17 VEC Granger Causality Test for Japan …..….…………………. 56
Table 5-18 VEC Granger Causality Test for South Korea….………………. 56
Table 5-19 VAR Granger Causality Test for Taiwan….……………………. 56
Table 5-20 Directional Causality between the Variables of Each Country...... 57


LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1-1 Global FDI Inflows, Average 2005 - 2007 and 2007 to 2010…………. 5
Figure 4-1 The Original Series of FDI and Tourism, China…...……………. 36
Figure 4-2 The Original Series of FDI and Tourism, Hong Kong……...…… 37
Figure 4-3 The Original Series of FDI and Tourism, Japan…………………. 37
Figure 4-4 The Original Series of FDI and Tourism, South Korea………….. 37
Figure 4-5 The Original Series of FDI and Tourism, Taiwan……………….. 37

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