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研究生:許馨云
研究生(外文):Shu,Xin-Yun
論文名稱:財務與銷售策略交互效果之研究:理論與實證
論文名稱(外文):A Study on the Interactive effects between Financial and Sale Strategies: Theory and Evidence
指導教授:廖國宏廖國宏引用關係
指導教授(外文):Liaw,Gwohorng
口試委員:馬德平鄧嘉宏賀惠玲陳依兌
口試日期:2012-05-19
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:東海大學
系所名稱:經濟系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2012
畢業學年度:100
語文別:中文
論文頁數:37
中文關鍵詞:財務結構賽局理論兩階段雙占模型猜測變數
外文關鍵詞:Financial structureGame theoryTwo-stage duopoly modelConjectural variation
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:1
  • 點閱點閱:216
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  • 下載下載:28
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
近年來,利用寡占賽局模型分析跨市場的交互影響,進而推論出公司間各種決策依存的關係的研究已成為研究主流,特別是財務與銷售兩大決策之交互關係,就理論與實證的研究都有顯著的研究成果。然而,在此一研究領域,同時兼具理論與實證的研究文獻比較少見,本文嘗試針對此一目標 ,就理論與實證作完整的剖析。
本文將Scott (1976, 1977)之多期間評價模型納入Brander and Lewis(1986)的兩階段賽局寡占模型,考慮寡占公司之財務與銷售決策略依存效果,並且推論出兩個財務與銷售交互關係之可檢定的假說。以台灣合乎寡占之電信產業資料進行檢定,期間自2001年至2011年共42筆季資料。利用時間序列分析檢定變數間之因果關係是否存在策略性領先與落後之現象。經由單根、共整合,以及Ganger因果關係等檢定,試圖支持寡占之公司財務與銷售策略上具有交互關係之假說。
實證結果顯示,公司之負債策略與自身負債與銷售量,以及競爭對手之銷售量有正向的效果;而且兩家公司之負債也有正的交互關係。這些實證結果之正負關係與預期效果一致且大部分都具顯著性。另外,公司間之銷售策略有也交互正效果的現象,表示產品在銷售上與消費上具有互相存之關係,這些實證依據大多支持本文提出之理論假說的主張。

關鍵字:財務結構 賽局理論、兩階段雙占模型、猜測變數

Since recently imperfect information and market structure are normal phenomena in the real world, numerous studies have examined dependent effects on cross-markets, especially the interactive effects between financial and sale strategies. However, there is a paucity in empirical studies in this respect. In order to fill in this shortcoming, this article proposes a model and uses data to examine some propositions derived from the model.
Combining Scott multiple-period valuation models (1976, 1977) with Brander and Lewis two-stage game duopolistic model(1986), this paper proposes a theoretic framework that involves the interactive effects between financial and sale strategies. Based on this model we derive two testable propositions.
For the purposes of testing our testable propositions, this paper uses the data of Taiwan telecommunication industry that suits for oligopolistic conditions to test the causality about financial and sale strategies. Data come from all public offerings in TSE, which are qualified to our variable measures, including three oligopolistic firms, 42 samples and the testing periods lasting from January 2001 to December 2011.
Our empirical results derived from the available data of two duopolistic companies, Chunghwa Telecom and Taiwan Mobile Co.,show that Chunghwa Telecom’s sales strategy has positive effects on it own debts and its rival’s debts and sales strategy.


Keyword:Financial structure,Game theory,Two-stage duopoly model,Conjectural variation

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究方法 2
第三節 研究架構 4
第二章 文獻探討 5
第一節 寡占模型 5
第二節 財務結構理論 6
第三節 公司的產品市場與財務結構 10
第四節 寡占的實證文獻 10
第三章 理論模型與研究假說 13
第一節 財務與產量交互效果 13
第二節 財務策略效果 18
第四章 實證分析與結果 22
第一節 資料來源與變數選取 22
第二節 單根檢定(Unit root) 23
第三節 共整合檢定 25
第四節 Granger因果關係檢定(Granger causality test) 27
第五章 結論 31


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