跳到主要內容

臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

(3.236.110.106) 您好!臺灣時間:2021/07/29 16:05
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果 :::

詳目顯示

: 
twitterline
研究生:Frank Veulemans
研究生(外文):Frank Veulemans
論文名稱:International trade in Taiwan: an application of Toda and Yamamoto Non-Causality test on the export-led growth hypothesis for Taiwan during 1981-2011
論文名稱(外文):International trade in Taiwan: an application of Toda and Yamamoto Non-Causality test on the export-led growth hypothesis for Taiwan during 1981-2011
指導教授:高凌菁高凌菁引用關係
指導教授(外文):Jing-Ling Kao
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺北科技大學
系所名稱:管理國際學生碩士專班 (IMBA)
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2012
畢業學年度:100
語文別:英文
論文頁數:67
中文關鍵詞:Export-led growth hypothesisToda and Yamamoto Granger Non-Causality test
外文關鍵詞:Export-led growth hypothesisToda and Yamamoto Granger Non-Causality test
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:173
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:14
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
East Asian countries are generally stigmatized as being highly export-led. Especially Taiwan receives these conjectures, as its production is highly export oriented. This paper examines the validity of the Export-Led Growth (ELG) hypothesis in Taiwan using quarterly data for the period 1981-2011. Time-series econometrics techniques are employed to test for the relationship and causal linkage between exports and economic growth. Toda and Yamamoto Non-Causality test determines that in contrary of theoretical acceptance, causation runs unidirectional from economic growth to exports. This research suggests, according to theory of the growth-led export hypothesis, that economic growth during this period could therefore be the result of a domestic development conceivably due to domestic technological improvement and increasing human capital and advocates that Taiwan became export oriented due to the country’s limited market capacity and that economic growth was not essentially the outcome of export promotion.


East Asian countries are generally stigmatized as being highly export-led. Especially Taiwan receives these conjectures, as its production is highly export oriented. This paper examines the validity of the Export-Led Growth (ELG) hypothesis in Taiwan using quarterly data for the period 1981-2011. Time-series econometrics techniques are employed to test for the relationship and causal linkage between exports and economic growth. Toda and Yamamoto Non-Causality test determines that in contrary of theoretical acceptance, causation runs unidirectional from economic growth to exports. This research suggests, according to theory of the growth-led export hypothesis, that economic growth during this period could therefore be the result of a domestic development conceivably due to domestic technological improvement and increasing human capital and advocates that Taiwan became export oriented due to the country’s limited market capacity and that economic growth was not essentially the outcome of export promotion.


TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT I
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT III
TABLE OF CONTENTS IV
LIST OF TABLES VI
LIST OF FIGURES VII
LIST OF APPENDIX VIII
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 RESEARCH BACKGROUND 1
1.1.1 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE IN TAIWAN 3
1.1.2 INDUSTRY POLICY AND EXPORT DETERMINATES 17
CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW 27
2.1 EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS 27
2.2 GROWTH-LED EXPORT HYPOTHESIS 31
2.3 TWO-WAY CAUSALITY HYPOTHESIS 33
2.4 NEGATIVE CORRELATION 34
CHAPTER III: METHODOLOGY 36
3.1 DATA COLLECTION METHOD 36
3.2 METHODOLOGY 36
3.2.1 UNIT ROOT TEST 37
3.2.2 CHOOSING LAG LENGTH AND FORMING VAR MODEL. 40
3.2.3 JOHANSEN COINTEGRATION 40
3.2.4 TODA AND YAMAMOTO NON-CAUSALITY TEST 42
CHAPTER IV: EMPIRICAL STUDY OF EXPORT EXPANSION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TAIWAN 46
4.1 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS 46
4.2 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS 47
4.2.1 UNIT ROOT TESTING 47
4.2.2 LAG ORDER SELECTION 49
4.2.3 COINTEGRATION TEST 50
4.2.4 TODA AND YAMAMOTO NON-CAUSALITY TEST 51
CHAPTERV: CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATION 54
5.1 ANALYTICAL RESULTS AND CONSIDERATIONS 54
5.2 EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS AND POLICIES 56
5.3 RETHINKING EXPORT ORIENTATION AND DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION 58
REFERENCES 60



REFERENCES
Ahumada, H., Sanguinetti, P., 1995. ‘The export-led growth hypothesis revisited:
theory and evidence’, pp. 327-355.
Ahmad, W. Md., Zulquar N., 2010. ‘Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in India: Some Further Evidences’, The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, 8: pp. 69-82.
Brooks, C., 2008. ‘Introductory econometrics for finance: second edition’.
Cheong, T.T., 2006. ‘Export Led Growth in Hong Kong: Empirical Evidence from the
Components of Exports’, International Journal of Business and Society, 7(1): pp.
30-52.
Dargin, J., 2010. ‘Promoting Industrialization, Trade and Industrial Strategies for
the Industrial South’.
Darrat, F. 2010. ‘Trade and development: The Asian experience’, Cato journal.
Douglas, A.I., 2005. ‘Free trade under fire’, pp. 81-91.
Granger, C.W.J., Newbold, P., 1974. ‘Spurious regression in econometrics’, Journal
of Econometrics, 2, pp. 111-120.
Gordon, R.J., 2009. ‘Macroeconomics 11th edition, Pearson Education Inc’ pp. 603.
Irvine, I., 2009. ‘Quantitative Micro Software, LLC, Eviews 7.0 User Guide’,
California.
Johansen, S., 1988. ‘Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors’, Journal of
Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2-3), pp. 231-254.
Johansen, S., Mosconi, R., Nielsen, 2000. ‘Cointegration Analysis I the
Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend’, Econometrics Journal,
3(2), pp 216-249.
Judith, A.C., Sadaf, M., 2003. ‘Some finite sample results on testing for
Granger Noncausality’, Econometrics Working Paper EWP0305, Department of
Economics, University of Victoria.
Konya, L., Singh, J.P., 2006. ‘Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in India’.
Kemal, A.R., Din M., Usman Q., 2002. ‘Exports and economic growth in South Asia’
Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
Kuo, T.., Myers, R., 2012. ‘Taiwan’s Economic Transformation:Leadership, property
rights and institutional change 1949-1965’, pp. 126-127.
Lee, J., 2002. ‘Taiwan’s economic development & the role of SMEs’, pp. 1-30.
Lee, Ch., Huang, B.N., 2002. ‘The Relationship between Exports and Economic
Growth in China and East Asian Countries: A Threshold AutoregressiveApproach’, Journal of Economic Development, 27(2), pp. 45-67.
Mai, C., Shih, C., 2001. ‘Taiwan’s economic success since 1980’.
Olufemi, F., 1979. ‘Trade and Growth: The Nigerian Experience’ World
Development 7, pp.73-78.
Ozturk, I., Acaravci A., 2010. ‘Testing the export-led growth hypothesis: empirical
evidence from Turkey’, The journal of Developing Areas.
Paksha, B.P., 2011. ‘Revisiting Export-Led Growth for Bangladesh: A Synthesis of
Cointegration and Innovation Accounting’, International Journal of Economic
and Finance.
Palley, T.I., 2002. ‘A new development paradigm: Domestic demand-led growth’,
Discussion paper, Foreign Policy in Focus.
Pomfret, R., 1991. ‘International trade’, pp. 147-165.
Rambaldi, A.N., Doran, H.E., 1996. ‘Testing for Granger non-causality in
cointegrated systems made easy’, Working Papers in Econometrics and
Applied Statistics 88, Department of Econometrics, The University of New
England.
Simon, D., Kau, M., 1992. ‘Taiwan: beyond the economic miracle’.
Smith, H., 2000. ‘Industry policy in Taiwan and Korea in the 1980s: winning with the
market’, pp. 87-88.
Statistical Abstract of National Income, Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting
and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C. (Taiwan).
Taiwan economy: Quick view - Rapid export growth EIU Views Wire (Nov 7, 2003).
Taiwan economy: Quick View - Export orders bode well for industry EIU Views Wire (Jan 22, 2010).
Tang, C.F., Yew W.L., 2011. ‘The stability of export-led growth hypothesis: evidence
from Asia’s four little dragons’, University of Malaya.
Wen, W., 1988. ‘Export-Led Growth and Import Dependence: the case of Taiwan,
1969-1981’, Journal of Development Economics, 28, pp. 165-276.
Woo, J., Peyton, M., 1985. ‘Exports, Growth and Causality in Developing Countries’,
Journal of Development Econamics, 18, pp. 1- 12.
Xu, Z., 1998. ‘Export and income growth in Japan and Taiwan’, Review of
International Economics, 6, pp. 220-233.
Yang, M., 2002. ‘Lag length and mean break in stationary VAR models.’ The
Econometrics Journal 5, pp. 374-386.


QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top