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研究生:邱純蓉
研究生(外文):Chun-Jung Chiu
論文名稱:時效性商品最適訂購模式研究-經驗法則運算以進口乳製品為例
論文名稱(外文):Optimal Ordering For Time-Limited Goods–Empirical Rule For Import Dairy Products
指導教授:吳忠敏吳忠敏引用關係
口試委員:張偉斌陳銘崑
口試日期:2012-06-14
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺北科技大學
系所名稱:管理學院經營管理EMBA專班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2012
畢業學年度:100
語文別:中文
論文頁數:47
中文關鍵詞:報童理論最適訂購量效期管理
外文關鍵詞:Newsboy theoryOptimal order quantityValidity management
相關次數:
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根據實務經驗,處理時效性商品訂購時,若未能有效控制訂購數量及進貨時間,會造成企業營運業績的不足,若因過其時效性,商品必須以廢料銷毀或降價出清,使得損失增加。但若因商品存貨不足而產生顧客抱怨,回購率下降,長期而言則會流失顧客,則降低其業績。
本研究將參考報童理論,配合實務上所能達到作法,目的為如何決定時效性商品的最適訂購模式,本文為進口商品為例: 其Lead time(此為出貨時間) 必須為訂購限制,處理各種不同時效性商品的訂購。同時在考量各種不同參數( 貨櫃空間限制、最小訂購量、商品有效期限、效期管理、平均銷售…),求解出最適訂購量,若過程已知該訂購量無法於時效前出售完畢,該如何使其損失最小化,銷售最大化為本為重點。


Based on practical experience, timeliness is very critical for most of issues. It would cause insufficiency of enterprise operation sales if not effectively controlling ordering quantity and re-stock timing; it would also cause increasing loss when commodities needs to be destroyed or cleaned by reduced price if commodities are having timeliness issue; last but not the least, insufficient stock would cause sales decrease, customers complain, re-purchase ratio drops and even losing customers in a long term of perspective.
In this study, it will determine the optimal ordering model under the best timeliness by referring to the newsboy theory and corporate with practical achievable practices. By taking imported commodities as instance, It will reveal the best ordering model – lead time (as time duration for suppliers to receive orders to ship them out) must be within ordering limitation, combined orders with different commodities that have different length of expiration date, and considerations of other variables (such as: container space limitation, minimum order quantities, commodities’ validity management, average sales and so on…). In this study, it will also focus on minimize the lost if it is known that ordering quantities cannot be sold before reaching its expiration date.

摘 要 i
Abstract ii
誌 謝 iii
目 錄 iv
表目錄 v
圖目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 5
1.3 研究假設與限制 5
1.4 研究流程 5
第二章 文獻探討 6
2.1 易腐性商品問題之發展 6
2.2 報童理論 7
2.3 產品需求分配 15
2.4 商品定價策略 17
2.5 商品定價策略多階存貨模型 18
2.6 小結 18
第三章 研究方法 20
3.1 符號定義 20
3.2 經驗法則 21
3.3 模式求解步驟 24
第四章 研究結果 25
4.1 個案情境 25
4.2 個案計算 30
第五章 結論與建議 40
5.1 研究結論 40
5.2 研究建議 41
參考文獻 42

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1. 歐陽良裕、楊志德,「生產率與存貨水準有關且需求率為價格的函數之退化性產品的生產存貨模式」,管理研究學報,第4卷,第2期,2004,第311-335頁。
2. 黃惠民、鄧貴中,「韋伯分配型損耗性產品在儲存場地及存貨投資金額限制條件下之最佳生產及訂價策略」,中原學報,第24卷,第1期,1996,第61-66頁。
3. 黃惠民、吳玫瑩與周宗翰,「損耗性商品之整合性二階存貨模式」,中原學報,第29卷,第1期,2001,第77-86頁。
4. 黃惠民、方翠瑩與陳維南,「產銷通路整合下含有不良品的報童問題之訂購策略」,品質學報,第14卷,第1期,2007,第17-30頁。
5. 黃允成、陳貞秀,「有效期限內多階段訂購報童模式最適決策之研究」,管理學報,第21卷,第3期,2004,第345-362頁。
6. 黃允成,「機率性需求存貨模式最佳訂購量及安全存量水準之研究」,交大管理學報,第16卷,第2期,1996,第19-36頁。
7. 李智明、李建宏,「不同需求分配和資訊狀況下報童問題」,管理研究學報,第7卷,第1期,2007,第91-118頁。
8. 黃允成,「報童模式在間斷性機率需求型態下若干特性之探討」,管理研究學報,第2卷,第1期,2002,第161-172頁。
9. 李智明,「需求不確定性對單期季節性商品完全資訊期望價值之影響」,台大管理論叢,第12卷,第1期,2001,第229-248頁。