臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

經濟快速發展的過程中常伴隨著使用大量的化石燃料，然而過度倚賴化石燃料的結果，也導致大氣中的溫室氣體濃度大幅提高。近年來，氣候變遷問題受到世界各地的矚目，其中，二氧化碳又是造成溫室效應最主要的溫室氣體；再者，台灣由於地理位置關係及缺乏自然資源，國際貿易則成為最主要的經濟活動之一，有鑑於此，致力減少國際貿易過程的二氧化碳排放，已逐漸成為台灣必須亟力面對及解決的問題。
本研究估算了台灣1996、2001及2006年各產業部門產品的能源及二氧化碳含量，並探討出口產品能源及碳含量的變化及主要影響因素。我們利用投入產出之結構分解分析，將可能導致出口能源及碳含量的變動的因素分成五種，分別為直接能源效率、能源消費結構、中間投入結構、出口結構及出口量等。分析結果顯示，1996至2001年期間，除了總出口量因素之外，出口品的能源及含碳量增加主要係受到直接能源效率、中間投入結構、出口結構因素的變動影響；然而，2001至2006年期間，出口品含碳量之增加最主要是來自於出口結構大幅度的變動。
本研究也同時探討政府的能源相關政策是否對減少產品之能源及碳含量有所幫助。本研究著重在分析課徵碳稅後產品及出口之碳含量的變動，模擬分析結果顯示，1996至2001年間，課徵碳稅後的產品及出口之碳含量會有些微的下降，然而，2001至2006年期間，課徵碳稅後的產品及出口之碳含量卻會有明顯的下降，顯示對後段期間課徵碳稅將較具政策有效性。

There is an increasing concern about climate change around the world. CO2 is one of the major greenhouse gases (GHG) causing global warming. Moreover, international trade is a major economic activity in Taiwan. As a consequence, efforts to reduce CO2 emissions in international trade have become an imperative thing for Taiwan and are also gaining momentum all over the world.
This study computes the energy and carbon intensities of the Taiwanese economy in 1996, 2001 and 2006 to figure out the changes of energy and carbon embodied in products and exports and their contributing factors. We use the structural decomposition analysis to find out the relative contribution of five factors causing the changes in the energy and carbon embodied in exports. From 1996 to 2001, the changes in the direct energy efficiency, the structure of intermediate inputs and the structure of exports are the most important factors contributed to the changes of energy and carbon embodied in exports in Taiwan. On the other hand, the structure of exports has been the most important factor between 2001 and 2006.
This study also explores whether energy policy could have effectively reduced the energy and carbon embodied in exports in Taiwan. Our results of imposing carbon tax on using fossil fuels reveal that the carbon embodied in exports would have decreased only moderately from 1996 to 2001 after taxation. However, the carbon embodied in exports would have decreased significantly from 2001 to 2006 after taxation, implying that carbon tax would have been a more effective policy in the latter period.

Content
摘要 I
Abstract II
誌 謝 III
Content IV
Table List V
Figure List VI
Chapter 1. Introduction 1
Chapter 2. Literature review 6
2.1 Energy and carbon embodied in international trade 6
2.2 The effect of carbon tax on CO2 emissions 8
Chapter 3. Methodology 10
3.1 Input- output analysis 10
3.2 Hybrid-unit input-output analysis 11
3.3 Input- output structural decomposition analysis 13
3.4 Carbon tax analysis 17
3.4.1 Input-output price model 17
3.4.2 The energy effect of commodity price fluctuation 17
Chapter 4 Results and Discussions 20
4.1 Data sources 20
4.2 Energy analysis 20
4.2.1 Energy Intensities 20
4.2.2 Energy Embodied in Exports and Structural Decomposition 23
4.3 Carbon analysis 27
4.3.1 Carbon Intensities 27
4.3.2 Carbon Embodied in Exports and Structural Decomposition 30
4.4 The Effect of Carbon Tax on Carbon Embodied in Exports 33
Chapter 5. Conclusions 38
Reference 40
Appendix 45


Table List
Table 1 Input-output table 11
Table 2 Hybrid-unit input output table 12
Table 3 Direct energy intensities of non-energy sectors 21
Table 4 Total carbon intensities of non-energy sectors 22
Table 5 SDA results of changes in the energy embodied in exports 25
Table 6 Share of SDA results of changes in the energy embodied in exports 25
Table 7 Energy embodied in exports 25
Table 8 Structure of exports 26
Table 9 Direct carbon intensities of non-energy sectors 28
Table 10 Total carbon intensities of non-energy sectors 29
Table 11 SDA results of changes in the carbon embodied in exports 32
Table 12 Share of SDA results of changes in the carbon embodied in exports 32
Table 13 Carbon embodied in exports 32
Table 14 Comparison of total outputs 34
Table 15 Comparison of carbon embodied in exports 35
Table 16 SDA results of changes in the carbon embodied in exports after taxation 36
Table 17 The share of SDA results of changes in the carbon embodied in exports after taxation 37
Table 18 Carbon embodied in exports after taxation 37

Table A1 Data description and source 45
Table A2 Estimated results of regression analysis of electricity demand 46
Table A3 Estimated results of regression analysis of primary energy demand 47
Table A4 Estimated results of regression analysis of refined petroleum products demand 48
Table A5 Estimated short-run price elasticity 48


Figure List
Figure 1 Proportion of export to GDP 2
Figure 2 Research framework 4
Figure 3 Research steps 5
Figure 4 Energy embodied in exports 26
Figure 5 Carbon embodied in exports 33
Figure 6 Comparison of carbon embodied in exports 35
Figure 7 Carbon embodied in exports after taxation 38

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