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研究生:林育伶
論文名稱:建構繼續經營疑慮審計意見診斷模型
指導教授:盧鈺欣盧鈺欣引用關係
口試委員:翁慈青黃瓊瑤
口試日期:2013-05-27
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:逢甲大學
系所名稱:會計學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:會計學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2013
畢業學年度:101
語文別:中文
論文頁數:57
中文關鍵詞:繼續經營資料探勘特徵選擇
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由於會計師在對公司進行繼續經營的評估時,將涉及到專業判斷,且影響因素也非常複雜,可能導致會計師作出錯誤的審計意見,即審計失敗,因此正確地評估公司的繼續經營假設是否有重大疑慮對會計師而言是非常重要的。過去研究通常以傳統的統計方法來探討此議題,而本研究以資料探勘的技術,建構繼續經營疑慮審計意見的診斷模型,並廣納文獻中的各種影響因素,包含了審計相關、公司治理相關以及一般的財務變數,且在建構診斷模型之前,以特徵選擇方法先篩選出重要因素,可有效地提昇模型的預測準確度。
第一階段實證以決策樹(DT)及關聯法則(AR)進行特徵選擇程序,並以多層感知器(MLP)進行績效的評估,並比較其績效結果。第一階段實證結果,其特徵選擇的兩種方法皆優於未經特徵選擇篩選的績效表現,比較其結果後,發現績效表現最好的方法為決策樹,並選出了7個重要特徵。第二階段則將選出的7個重要特徵,運用決策樹(DT)分類技術進行建構診斷模型程序,實證結果,預測準確率為84.97%,並萃取出13條分類規則建立繼續經營疑慮審計意見的決策表,此決策表可提供會計師易理解及使用的規則參考,以作出更正確的繼續經營決策。
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究問題與目的 4
第三節 研究貢獻 5
第四節 研究流程 6
第二章 文獻探討 8
第一節 影響會計師出具繼續經營疑慮審計意見的關鍵因素 8
一、經濟依賴 10
二、聲譽維持 14
三、其他財務比率 18
第二節 特徵選擇(Feature Selection) 20
一、決策樹(Decision Trees) 20
二、關聯法則(Association Rules) 21
第三節 分類技術(Classification Techniques) 22
第三章 研究方法與設計 24
第一節 特徵選擇程序 25
一、變數衡量 26
二、評估模型 30
三、績效評估 31
第二節 診斷模型建構程序 31
一、診斷模型的開發 31
二、評估方法 32
三、決策表 33
第三節 資料來源 34
第四章 實證結果 35
第一節 敘述性統計 35
第二節 特徵選擇 38
第三節 影響會計師出具繼續經營疑慮審計意見的重要因素探討 40
第四節 分類技術 42
第五章 結論 44
第一節 研究結論 44
第二節 研究限制與未來方向 45
參考文獻 46
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1. 齊德彰、呂學典,2007,董監事獨立性與會計師事務所類型-對會計師出具繼續經營疑慮查核意見之影響,金融風險管理季刊,第3卷第3期:61-79。
2. 劉嘉雯、王泰昌,2005,繼續經營有重大疑慮審計意見第33號審計公報之影響,管理學報,第22卷第4期:525-548。
3. 廖秀梅、洪筱雯,非審計服務、會計師任期與審計品質,當代會計,第11卷第2期:151-178。
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