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研究生:Pham Van Truong
研究生(外文):Pham Van Truong
論文名稱(外文):Building A Forecasting Model for Hanoi – Bangkok Air Route Passenger Traffic Demand at Corporate Planning & Development Department – Vietnam Airlines
指導教授(外文):Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Hai ThanhDr. Chih-Hung Jen
口試委員(外文):Prof.Dr. Teresa JuDr. Nguyen Thanh TungDr. Mai Anh
口試日期:2013-05-25
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:龍華科技大學
系所名稱:資訊管理系碩士班
學門:電算機學門
學類:電算機一般學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2013
畢業學年度:101
語文別:英文
論文頁數:44
外文關鍵詞:Airline forecasting modelVietnamairlinesForecasting modelAir routePassenger traffic demand
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Vietnam aviation company , the state company, established in 1996, based on connecting 20 air business companies, in which Vietnam Airlines is the key company. Corporate planning and development Department use the time - series model for forecasting passenger traffic demand, almost all based on empirical and expert methods. Using other mathematical models in comparision with expert methods for forecasting will contribute to accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, research and build a mixed forecasting model based on the comparison of forecasting methods is essential, especially for passenger traffic demand on the air routes between big cities.
This study will focus in building a forecasting model for Hanoi – Bangkok air route passenger traffic demand. So the research questions of this study are:
(1) Shortcomings and weaknesses of the model in forecasting air passenger traffic demand between Hanoi and Bangkok?
(2) Efficiency of the model in forecasting Hanoi – Bangkok air traffic demand?
The model helps to assess the accuracy of forecasts and save the unwanted costs. Because of applying mathematical model, so the forecast will be more scientific.
The author designs research process, model, and variables of the research, data collection method, data analysing (mixed method of qualitative and quantitative), processing data, statistical tools helping to answer research questions which are presented in detail in the thesis. The whole research contents are implemented according to these steps: defining the topic and research objectives; researching qualitatively and quantitatively; constructing hypotheses and official research variables, research samples; establishing measure scale and design questionnaire; collecting data; analyzing and processing data using statistical tools; and concluding research topics.

After collecting data, the author synthesized and analyzed data on Excel and SPSS 13, the author has pointed out the importance of the mix model, the significance of factors that influence on forecast. Consequently, these findings help accelerate the leaders at Vietnam Airlines forecast more scientific. The research also recommends come solutions to enhance the more suitable method of forecast air traffic demand between big cities based on scientific and quantified background.
These solutions then support Vietnam Airlines leaders in making decisions regarding directions and strategies in forecast and in improving competitive capacity.

ABSTRACT i
ACKNOWLEDGMENT iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS iv
LIST OF TABLES vi
LIST OF FIGURES vii
ABBREVIATION viii
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Motivation 1
1.2 Objectives And Research Questions 1
1.3 Project Subject And Scope 2
1.4 Methodology 2
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW AND RESEARCH RATIONALE IN FORECAST METHOD 3
2.1 Rationale 3
2.1.1 Forecast in aviation ( concept, basis feature) 3
2.1.2 The importance of forecast in aviation 3
2.2 Forecast Methods 5
2.2.1 Qualitative methods 5
2.2.2 Quantitative method 6
2.3 Literature Review About Aviation Market Forecast Models 10
2.3.1 Aviation market forecasting models 10
2.3.2 Assessment and comparison of models. The need of mixed forecasting model 11
CHAPTER 3 THE PROBLEMS IN FORECAST AT CORPORATE PLANNING AND DEVELOPTMENT DEPARTMENT – VIETNAM AIRLINES 13
3.1 Vietnam Aviation Market And Popular Forecast Models 13
3.2 Forecast Process 14
3.2.1 Vietnam Airlines 14
3.2.2 Vietnam Airlines forecasting model 16
3.2.3 Factors affecting forecasting activity of Vietnam Airlines 18
3.3 Rationale To Propose Mixed Forecasting Model 19
CHAPTER 4 METHODOLOGY 21
4.1 Case Study 21
4.2 Design The Case Study 22
CHAPTER 5 DATA COLLECTING AND PROCESSING 26
5.1 Data Collecting 26
5.1.1 Primary data 26
5.1.2 Secondary data 26
5.2 Data Processing And Analyzing Results 28
5.2.1 Single linear regression 28
5.2.2 Multiple linear regression 30
5.2.3 Delphi method 34
5.3 Mixed Forecasting Model Assessment 36
5.3.1 Single linear regression model 36
5.3.2 Multiple linear regression model 37
5.3.3 Delphi method 38
CHAPTER 6 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 39
6.1 Results 39
6.2 Discussion of adjustment to the model 39
6.3 Model efficiency 40
CHAPTER 7 CONCLUSION 41
7.1 Academic contributions 41
7.2 Practical contributions 41
REFERENCES 43

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19.Boeing, Network Fleet Planning Workshop, May 2013
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29.Aircraft interiors daily news, 11April 2013.
30.Airline fleet management, Issue 84, May-June 2013.
31.Vietnam aviation law (2006)

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