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研究生:黃塵
研究生(外文):Chen Huang
論文名稱:紅酒市場與從眾行為
論文名稱(外文):Herding Behavior in the Wine Market
指導教授:張嘉玲張嘉玲引用關係
口試委員:余士迪紀志毅
口試日期:2013-06-20
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:應用經濟學系所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2013
畢業學年度:101
語文別:中文
論文頁數:75
中文關鍵詞:橫斷面絕對差倫敦紅酒指數市場離散度橫斷面標準差酒花價格
外文關鍵詞:Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation(CSAD)LIV-EXmarketdispersionCross-Sectional Standard Deviation(CSSD)En Primeurprice
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  • 被引用被引用:5
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  本文研究的目的在於驗證紅酒市場是否存在從眾行為,並探討從眾行為對於紅酒市場的影響。我們使用倫敦國際葡萄酒交易所(LIV-EX)的四種紅酒指數與WinePrices.com 的九種紅酒指數在2005年1月至2010年1月的月資料進行實證,並且將紅酒市場區分成大型、中型和小型的市場來觀察不同的變化,利用橫斷面絕對差(CSAD)與橫斷面標準差(CSSD)等二種方法去判別從眾行為。
  整體而言,我們的實證結果顯示各類型的紅酒市場皆存在顯著的從眾行為。依據上述的結果,我們有以下的結論:首先,紅酒可以令投資的選擇多樣化並有助漲抗跌的效果,其次,紅酒與金融、不動產市場相同,皆存在從眾行為,這可說明為何倫敦、紐約、香港同為全球金融與紅酒交易中心,最後,我們也發現除了法國紅酒市場之外,美國、義大利、澳洲、葡萄牙等紅酒市場也存在不同程度的從眾行為。

The purpose of this study is to examine herding behavior in the wine market, in order to see, how it affects that market. Monthly data for four different price indices was obtained from LIV-EX and for nine different price indices was obtained from WinePrices.com. The data period covers January, 2005 to January, 2010.
We used Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation (CSAD) and Cross-Sectional Standard Deviation (CSSD) models to examine herding behavior in the wine market.For a comparative purpose, the markets were devided into large, medium, and small size markets.
The empirical results show what each sized wine market exhibits a significant herding behavior. Based on the empirical results, we conclude that: (1) Wine can make better the investment’s diversifications and selections, as it encourages up trends and defends against down trends. (2) We have found the herding behavior in the wine markets, just as it is found the same in the finance, and real estate markets. This explains Why London, New York, and Hong Kong are both the trading centers of global finance and the wine market. (3) Finally, herding behavior is different in the wine markets of United States, Italy, Australia, Portugal, and French.


摘要 III
Abstract IV
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景、動機、目的 1
第二節 研究架構 4
第二章 紅酒與紅酒指數及紅酒市場概況 5
第一節 紅酒 5
第二節 紅酒指數 8
第三節 紅酒市場概況 10
第三章 從眾行為的文獻 36
第一節 從眾行為源起與發展 36
第二節 從眾行為的市場應用 38
第三節 紅酒價格與從眾行為的關係 39
第四節 從眾行為的衡量方式 42
第四章 資料處理與研究方法 54
第一節 資料處理與變數說明 54
第二節 實證模型說明 56
第五章 實證結果與分析 59
第一節 CSAD模型 59
第二節 CSSD模型 61
第六章 結論與研究建議 67
第一節 結論 67
第二節 研究建議 68
參考文獻 70


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