臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

Taiwan is a country with a higher number of typhoon events every year, an average of almost 4 typhoons per year attacking Taiwan based on the records of Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan from 1958-2012, includes the year event, duration, strength level, path, pressure, wind speed, etc. Beside data from CWB, there are numerical simulation results of events by National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) of Taiwan based on their own prediction system. However there are little has known about the relevancy between the simulated typhoon data from NCDR and recorded typhoon data from CWB. Therefore, this study will focus on comparing the typhoon data from CWB and NCDR by using extreme value analysis for several determined return periods (5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 150, 200 and 250 year) with two different approaches. For convenience, these two different approaches will be labeled as Method 1 and Method 2. In general, this research generates the results (wave height and storm surge) by using extreme value analysis Gumbel and Weibull distribution with the help by numerical models (Rankine-Vortex model, Wind Wave Model, Storm Surge Model). After getting the results, this research uses visual analysis and independent samples t test to investigate the results. Based on results analysis, it can be concluded that the simulated typhoon data from NCDR does not represent the recorded typhoon data from CWB very well.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

page
ABSTRACT i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS iii
LIST OF FIGURES v
LIST OF TABLES vii
LIST OF NOMENCLATURE ix
CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background and Research Objectives 1
1.2 Research Data 2
1.3 Research Method 4
1.4 Literature Review 8
1.5 Outline of the Thesis 10
CHAPTER II THEORETICAL BACKGROUNDS 11
2.1 Extreme Value Analysis 11
2.2 Numerical Models 13
2.2.1 Typhoon Wind Field 13
2.2.2 Wind Wave Model (WWM) 15
2.2.3 Storm Surge Model (SSM) using Finite Element Method Technic 17
2.3 Measuring Statistical Significance of Independent Samples 20
CHAPTER III DATA ANALYSIS 24
3.1 Study Point Information 24
3.2 Data Analysis using Method 1 Approach 25
3.3 Data Analysis using Method 2 Approach 33
3.4 Summary of the Results 39
CHAPTER IV RESULTS DISCUSSION 52
4.1 Results Comparison based on the Source of Data 52
4.1.1 Method 1 Results Comparison based on the Source of Data 52
4.1.2 Method 2 Results Comparison based on the Source of Data 55
4.2 Results Comparison based on the Approach Method 58
4.3 Benefits and Weaknesses of Method 1 and Method 2 62
CHAPTER V CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS 63
5.1 Conclusions 63
5.2 Suggestion 63
REFERENCES 64
APPENDIX A 67

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