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研究生:李承諺
研究生(外文):Cheng-YenLi
論文名稱:應用舞弊三角理論偵測及預測財務報表舞弊-以台灣上市(櫃)公司為例
論文名稱(外文):Detecting and Predicting Financial Statement Fraud by Fraud Triangle Theory - An Example of Taiwan Listed and OTC Companies
指導教授:黃華瑋黃華瑋引用關係
指導教授(外文):Hua-Wei Huang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:會計學系碩博士班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:會計學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2013
畢業學年度:101
語文別:中文
論文頁數:74
中文關鍵詞:舞弊預測模型財報舞弊訴訟審計準則公報第99號我國審計準則公報第43號
外文關鍵詞:Fraud prediction modelFraud predictionFraud risk factorsSAS NO.99
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:10
  • 點閱點閱:1480
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:419
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
本文以2002年至2012年因財務報表舞弊遭法院起訴之117家公司為樣本,以SAS NO.99所採用Cressey (1953)所提出的舞弊風險因子架構及我國審計準則公報第43號為基礎,建立財務報表舞弊預測模型。根據Cressey (1953)的理論,舞弊三角的誘因或壓力、機會及態度或行為合理化,當舞弊情況發生時,同時會具備此舞弊三角。
本研究針對我國的審計準則公報及產業特性,將舞弊三角的誘因或壓力、機會及態度或行為合理化的情況,以代理變數衡量,使用公開可得的舞弊公司及非舞弊公司資料去測試這些代理變數是否與財務報表舞弊有關聯,本研究辨認出兩個壓力代理變數、四個機會代理變數及一個態度或行為合理化的代理變數與財務報表舞弊有關聯。
最後,本研究透過這些顯著的代理變數建立舞弊預測模型,並進一步測試其分類舞弊及非舞弊公司的精確性,藉以提供主管機關監控上市(櫃)公司是否具有財報舞弊之風險,此模型助於偵測舞弊。

This study empirically examines the effectiveness of Cressey’s (1953) fraud risk factor framework adopted in SAS NO.99 in detection of financial statement fraud. Based on SAS NO.99 and SAS NO.43 of ROC, we set a fraud prediction model by financial statement fraud companies as a sample. The samples were selected between 2002 and 2012.
According to Cressey’s theory, three conditions are always present when financial statement fraud occurs. We develop variables which serve as proxy measures for pressure, opportunity and rationalization and test these variables using publicly available information based on statements of auditing standards and industry characteristics. We test these proxy variables related to financial statement fraud .We identify two pressure proxies, four opportunity proxies and one rationalization proxy that are significantly related to financial statement fraud.
Finally, we used cross-validation to test the fraud predicting model in order to determine its efficacy in predicting the fraud versus no-fraud classification of our sample firms. This study provides information that determines Taiwan’s listed and OTC companies whether have the risk of financial statement fraud to the competent authority.

第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 論文架構 3
第三節 論文流程圖 4
第貳章 文獻探討 5
第一節 舞弊定義 5
第二節 舞弊種類 7
第三節 舞弊三角 8
第四節、辨認與財務報表舞弊的特性 11
第五節、舞弊預警: 12
第六節、舞弊預警的國內有關文獻探討 14
第七節、假說 16
第參章 研究方法 18
第一節 實證模型與定義變數 18
第二節 樣本選取與資料蒐集 31
第三節 資料分析方法 34
第肆章 實證結果與分析 35
第一節 敘述性統計分析 35
第二節 Wilcoxon符號排序檢定 39
第三節 Logistic迴歸分析 41
第四節 區別分析 44
第伍章 結論與建議 47
第一節 結論 47
第二節 研究限制 49
第三節 研究建議 51
附錄壹 額外測試 53
第一節 包含p值小於0.15的代理變數 53
第二節 將樣本分成電子產業及非電子產業 57
附錄貳 SAS NO.99及我國審計準則公報第43號舞弊風險因子範例 60
附錄參 與財務報表舞弊有關之證券交易法條文 64
參考文獻 67
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嚴文筆(2004),「從內部控制觀點建構舞弊訴訟預警模型」,國立中正大學會計與資訊科技研究所碩士論文。

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