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研究生:王筱婷
研究生(外文):Wang, Hsiao-Ting
論文名稱:以混和式資料採礦技術探討信用卡產業之顧客流失管理與服務組合設計
論文名稱(外文):A hybrid data-mining scheme to discuss customer churn management and service portfolio design for the credit-card industry
指導教授:王志軒王志軒引用關係
指導教授(外文):Wang, Chih-Hsuan
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立交通大學
系所名稱:工業工程與管理系所
學門:工程學門
學類:工業工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2013
畢業學年度:101
語文別:中文
論文頁數:72
中文關鍵詞:資料採礦變數篩選信用卡產業顧客關係管理服務組合設計
外文關鍵詞:data-miningfeature selectioncredit-card industrycustomer relationship managementservice portfolio design
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近年來,顧客關係管理儼然成為一個重要的議題。對於服務業而言,如何建立企業與消費者的良好關係,將是企業增加利潤的主要來源。而顧客關係管理中,最為廣泛討論的議題即是對於流失顧客的辨別與保留。本研究針對台灣信用卡產業進行顧客流失分類,除了找出可能流失顧客外,並判斷影響顧客流失之關鍵因子;最後再根據顧客偏好建立信用卡服務組合,期望刺激顧客辦卡及消費欲望。不同於以往,過去研究多半使用顧客交易資料進行流失分類;本研究則採用顧客滿意度資料進行流失分類,並證明其分類效果較佳。
本研究除了建立決策樹分類規則供企業判斷流失顧客外,更歸納出影響流失之關鍵因素在於其對銀行所提供之“道路救援服務”感到不滿意;為快速且有效地保留顧客,企業應優先改善該項服務。最後則根據顧客偏好,利用關聯規則建立卡片組合。本研究建議企業在成本允許之下,規劃一張卡片擁有“量販超市優惠”或“加油停車優惠”或是“休閒娛樂優惠”為主要功能,並可搭配“居家生活購物優惠”或是“住宿餐飲優惠”為選配功能。此卡片組合乃是根據顧客偏好所建立,故其相當符合顧客期望。
Customer Relationship Management (CRM) has become an interesting research topic over many years because of its significant impact on increasing revenues in the service industry. One of the most popular topics is discussing how to detect the potential customer churn and then employ customer retention policies before final withdrawal. In this thesis, Decision tree, Rough sets and Association rule are combined to construct classification rules (based on customer satisfaction with service policies) to identify potential customer churn and to configure the optimal service portfolios (based on customer preference for product features) for hundreds of Taiwanese credit-card users. Instead of using the transaction data or customer profiles, customer satisfaction as well as customer preference has been demonstrated much more effective to accomplish the aforementioned goal(s).
In summary, the main factor causes customer churn is“roadside assistance service” provided by credit-card company. The factor should be improved immediately because the more disappointed the customer experienced, the more chance they will stop the transaction with the company in the future. For credit-card service portfolio, one of the following features is suggested to act as a “primary” functionality, such as (1) Co-branding with supermarkets, (2) Discounting on refuel and parking, and (3) Discounting on entertainment. And one of the following features can be selected as a “secondary” functionality, like (1) Discounting on purchasing household goods and (2) Discounting on hotels or restaurants.
摘 要.....................................................I
Abstract.................................................II
致 謝....................................................IV
目錄.......................................................V
圖目錄..................................................VII
表目錄.................................................VIII
第一章 緒論..............................................1
1.1 研究背景與動機.......................................1
1.2 研究目的.............................................2
1.3 論文架構.............................................3
第二章 文獻探討...........................................5
2.1 國內信用卡產業現況...................................5
2.2 顧客關係管理與顧客流失...............................10
2.3 信用卡與顧客關係管理.................................14
2.4 資料採礦與分類模型..................................15
2.5 變數篩選............................................16
第三章 研究方法..........................................18
3.1 研究架構............................................18
3.2 分類演算法與變數篩選................................22
3.2.1決策樹與變數篩選.....................................23
3.2.2 粗糙集與變數篩選.....................................32
3.3 關聯規則...........................................39
3.4 評估績效指標........................................42
第四章 研究結果與討論.....................................44
4.1 問卷設計與初步分析....................................44
4.2 顧客流失探討.........................................48
4.2.1 變數篩選.............................................49
4.2.2 分類績效評估與分類結果討...............................50
4.3 服務組合設計.........................................57
第五章 結論與未來展望.....................................61
5.1 研究結果.............................................61
5.2 未來展望.............................................63
參考文獻...................................................64
英文文獻...................................................64
中文文獻...................................................67
附錄一:問卷...............................................69
附錄二:變數對照表..........................................71

英文文獻
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Haverila, Matti. (2011). Mobile phone feature preferences, customer satisfaction and repurchase intent among male users. Australasian Marketing Journal (AMJ), 19(4), 238-246. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ausmj.2011.05.009
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Hung, Shin-Yuan, Yen, David C., &; Wang, Hsiu-Yu. (2006). Applying data mining to telecom churn management. Expert Systems with Applications, 31(3), 515-524. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2005.09.080
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中文文獻
王念萍. (2003). 探討信用卡市場區隔與顧客價值分析. (碩士), 國立東華大學, 花蓮縣. Retrieved from http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dnclcdr&;s=id=%22091NDHU5121011%22.&;searchmode=basic
林宜錚. (2001). 顧客轉換因素之探討---以行動電話門號業者為例. (碩士), 國立成功大學, 台南市. Retrieved from http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dnclcdr&;s=id=%22089NCKU0119030%22.&;searchmode=basic
林昭龍. (2012). 探討變數選取與變數萃取在企業財務預測綜合比較. (碩士), 國立交通大學, 新竹市. Retrieved from http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dnclcdr&;s=id=%22100NCTU5031083%22.&;searchmode=basic
柯光任. (2005). 客戶流失預測模式之研究—以使用信用卡循環利息為例. (碩士), 銘傳大學, 台北市. Retrieved from http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dnclcdr&;s=id=%22093MCU05396019%22.&;searchmode=basic
翁振益, 張德儀, 鄭光遠, 鍾碧姮, &; 林雅藝. (2006). 資料探勘技術應用於航空業顧客再搭意願區隔與服務滿意項目組合之分析. 觀光研究學報, Vol.12 No.2, 139-154.
陳麗君. (2003). 應用資料探勘技術於信用卡黃金級客戶之顧客關係管理. (碩士), 元智大學, 桃園縣. Retrieved from http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dnclcdr&;s=id=%22091YZU00031019%22.&;searchmode=basic

曾建元. (2012). 整合變數篩選與分類方法建構信用評等模型. (碩士), 國立交通大學, 新竹市. Retrieved from http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dnclcdr&;s=id=%22100NCTU5031084%22.&;searchmode=basic
曾憲雄, 蔡秀滿, 蘇東興, 曾秋蓉, &; 王慶堯. (2005). 資料探勘 (Vol. 初版). 台北: 旗標.
湯宗泰, &; 劉文良. (2004). 顧客關係管理─導論與應用. 台北: 全華科技圖書.
溫坤禮, 永井正武, 張廷政, &; 溫惠筑. (2008). 粗糙集入門與應用 (Vol. 初版). 台北市: 五南.

行政院金融監督管理委員會。信用卡重要業務及財務資訊揭露,http://www.fsc.gov.tw/ch/home.jsp?id=134&;parentpath=0,4&;mcustomize=multimessage_view.jsp&;dataserno=21207&;aplistdn=ou=disclosure,ou=multisite,ou=chinese,ou=ap_root,o=fsc,c=tw&;toolsflag=Y&;dtable=Disclosure (擷取日期:2013.02.18)
財團法人聯合信用處理中心。http://www.nccc.com.tw/ (擷取日期:2013.02.18)

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