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研究生:劉玉晶
論文名稱:開發中國家與已開發國家之生質能與經濟發展關係之研究
論文名稱(外文):The causal relationship of biomass and economy between developed and developing countries
指導教授:虞孝成虞孝成引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立交通大學
系所名稱:科技管理研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2013
畢業學年度:101
語文別:中文
論文頁數:52
中文關鍵詞:生質能經濟發展因果關係研究面板數據
外文關鍵詞:biomasseconomycausal relationshippanel data
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近年由於環境保護及能源安全等議題,使得許多國家紛紛朝向再生能源發展,而生質能亦屬其一。由於目前大力發展生質能之國家甚少,故本篇論文以2009年生質能發電比例為選樣條件挑選出前十大國家,再以ECM模型探討1990至2009年間生質能發電與經濟發展間之因果關係,並進行對選定的開發中群組與已開發群組之比較。

本研究結果顯示,對已開發國家群組而言,經濟發展對於生質能發電具有短期負向影響關係,而生質能發電對於經濟發展具有短期正向影響;在長期時,僅存在經濟發展對於生質能發電的單向穩定關係。至於開發中國家群組,生質能發電對於經濟發展,短期具有負向影響關係,且經濟發展與生質能發電具有雙向長期均衡穩定關係。

基於實證結果,本研究建議已開發國家群組可大量採取促進發展生質能的發電政策,包含投資生質能發電的稅務減免政策、研發發展生質能的財務政策或鼓勵發展生質能發電之補貼等等,以促進此些國家的經濟發展。對於開發中國家群組之建議為,應採取提升生質能發電的技術水準、提高能源使用效率的使用能力,並建造更為完善的基礎建設之政策。

Recently, owing to the environmental protection, energy security, and other popular issues, several countries take energy policy seriously and would change policy toward renewable energy, including biomass energy. Nowadays, few countries rely on electricity generation from biomass energy or few are famous for biomass power generation in great volume. Therefore, this paper selects observed samples in a much more subject and relative way by comparing the proportion of biomass electricity generation to total generation. Thus, in this paper top 10 countries are selected for study by taking the proportion in 2009 as criteria, and the period from 1990 to 2009 were investigated for these 10 counties which are divided to developed and developing group. By taking the panel error correction model, the causal relationships of these two groups are verified and will be compared.

The empirical results for developed group reveal that negative unidirectional causality from biomass power generation to real GDP and positive unidirectional causality from real GDP to biomass exist in the short-run, and equilibrium relationship from real GDP to biomass power generation exists in the long-run. For developing group, only negative unidirectional causality from real GDP to biomass electricity generation exists in short-run, and in long-run there is bidirectional equilibrium relationship.

Based on the empirical results this paper suggests that developed group can take several policy to encourage biomass generation, including tax incentive, subsidy on investment and R&;D, and so on. In addition, we advise developing group should enhance the technology, increase energy efficiency, and establish infrastructure.

摘要 .......................................................................................................................................... Ⅰ
英文摘要 .................................................................................................................................. Ⅱ
誌謝 .......................................................................................................................................... Ⅲ
目錄 .......................................................................................................................................... Ⅳ
表目錄 ...................................................................................................................................... Ⅵ
圖目錄 ...................................................................................................................................... Ⅶ
一、緒論 .................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1研究動機 .......................................................................................................................... 1
1.2研究目的 .......................................................................................................................... 2
二、文獻回顧 ............................................................................................................................ 3
三、背景資料介紹 .................................................................................................................... 6
3.1已開發國家 ...................................................................................................................... 6
3.1.1奧地利(Austria) .......................................................................................................... 6
3.1.2丹麥(Denmark) .......................................................................................................... 8
3.1.3芬蘭(Finland) ........................................................................................................... 10
3.1.4荷蘭(Netherlands) ................................................................................................... 12
3.1.5瑞典(Sweden) .......................................................................................................... 14
3.2開發中國家 .................................................................................................................... 18
3.2.1貝里斯(Belize) .......................................................................................................... 18
3.2.2智利(Chile) ............................................................................................................... 20
3.2.3瓜地馬拉(Guatemala) ............................................................................................. 22
3.2.4匈牙利(Hungary) ...................................................................................................... 24
3.2.5模里西斯(Mauritius) ................................................................................................ 26
3.3已開發與開發中國家比較 ............................................................................................ 29
3.3.1國內實質生產毛額(Real GDP) ................................................................................ 30
3.3.2固定資本投入(Gross Fixed Capital Formation) ....................................................... 31
3.3.3勞動力投入(Total Labor Force) ............................................................................... 32
3.3.4生質能發電(Biomass Electricity Generation) .......................................................... 33
四、研究方法 .......................................................................................................................... 33
4.1 變數定義 ....................................................................................................................... 34
4.2定單根檢定 .................................................................................................................... 34
4.2.1定態(Stationary ) ...................................................................................................... 34
4.2.2單位根(Unit Root) .................................................................................................... 35
4.2.3單根檢定(Unit Root Test) ........................................................................................ 35
4.3共整合分析 .................................................................................................................... 36
4.4誤差修正模型 ................................................................................................................ 38
4.4.1誤差修正模型(Error Correction Model)之意義 ...................................................... 38
4.4.2誤差修正模型之使用 .............................................................................................. 38
五、實證結果 .......................................................................................................................... 39
5.1單根檢定 ........................................................................................................................ 39
5.2共整合檢定 .................................................................................................................... 40
5.3誤差修正模型(VECM) .................................................................................................... 41
六、結論 ............................................................................................................................... 44
參考文獻 ............................................................................... 46
中文文獻
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