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研究生(外文):Chang, Chih-Jen
論文名稱(外文):Modeling Competition of Consumption and CO2 Emission between Fossil Fuel and Low-carbon Energy: The Evidence from the United States
指導教授(外文):Tsai, Bi-Huei
中文關鍵詞:Lotka-Volterra 模型能源消耗量二氧化碳排放量化石燃料低碳能源
外文關鍵詞:Lotka-Volterra ModelConsumption of EnergyCO2 EmissionsFossil FuelsLow-carbon Energy
  • 被引用被引用:2
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Compared to fossil fuel, low-carbon energy has a characteristic of lower carbon dioxide emissions. For many countries, replacing fossil fuel with clean low-carbon energy is one of the important countermeasures to control or reduce carbon dioxide emissions. While greenhouse gases continue to spread and air temperature of the Earth continues to heat up, the competition or growth and decline relationships between two energies, fossil fuel and low-carbon energy, become very worthy of a lot of regards and discussions. This research used energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission data of U.S. and applied the modified biological ecology Lotka-Volterra model to explore the interactions as well as the future relationships of two energies.
Either for energy consumption or for relative carbon dioxide emission amounts, model parameter simulation results revealed that there exists commensalism relationship among fossil fuel and low-carbon energy. Low-carbon energy could facilitate the growth of low-carbon energy while fossil fuel had no effect upon low-carbon energy. There are internal negative forces to suppress its own growth in fossil fuel. Another equilibrium analysis results forecasted that two kinds of energy will approach a stable equilibrium state in the long-term competing and will be used with coexistence in the future. The accuracy analysis results also showed that the applied model has good fitting and forecasting abilities.
The decision-makers should cautiously select which type of energies to be used. It is not only the matter of how many carbon dioxide gases will be emitted but also a decision with significant impact on the global environment. This research demonstrates the feasibility of applying Lotka-Volterra model to explore the dynamic competing relationships between fossil fuels and low-carbon energy. Hopefully, the analysis method constructed by this research could become an energy assessment tool on which decision-makers rely, and contributes to environmental protection.

第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 5
1.3 研究範圍與限制 5
1.4 研究方法與流程 6
1.5 研究獨特性 7
第二章 文獻探討 8
2.1 能源概述 8
2.1.1 化石燃料 8
2.1.2 低碳燃料 8
2.1.3 能源的消耗量 9
2.1.4 能源的二氧化碳排放量 11
2.2 溫室效應與溫室氣體 12
2.2.1 溫室效應 12
2.2.2 溫室氣體 12
2.3 美國的溫室氣體減量策略與措施 16
2.4 文獻回顧 20
2.4.1 與能源消耗量和二氧化碳排放量相關研究文獻 20
2.4.2 與Lotka-Volterra模型相關研究文獻 25
2.4.3 與Bass模型相關研究文獻 30
第三章 研究設計 33
3.1 研究架構 33
3.2 研究樣本與期間 34
3.3 能源的相對碳排放量 34
3.4 Lotka-Volterra模型參數估計方法 35
3.5 Bass模型參數估計方法 38
3.6 模型的配適與預測能力 39
3.7 Lotka-Volterra模型均衡點 40
第四章 實證結果與分析 41
4.1 Lotka-Volterra模型估計結果分析 41
4.2 Lotka-Volterra模型準確度分析 48
4.2.1 模型配適能力 48
4.2.2 模型預測能力 54
4.3 Lotka-Volterra模型之均衡分析 58
4.3.1 能源消耗量 58
4.3.2 能源相對碳排放量 60
第五章 結論與建議 63
5.1 研究結論 63
5.2 研究建議 64
參考文獻 65

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