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研究生:唐云慧
研究生(外文):Intan Kartika Setyawati
論文名稱:印度尼西亞天然橡膠供給與需求之研究
論文名稱(外文):The Study of Supply and Foreign Demand for Indonesia's Natural Rubber
指導教授:林永順林永順引用關係Budi Setiawan
指導教授(外文):Yeong-Shenn LinBudi Setiawan
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立屏東科技大學
系所名稱:農企業管理系所
學門:農業科學學門
學類:農業經濟及推廣學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2013
畢業學年度:101
論文頁數:71
中文關鍵詞:天然橡膠供應需求共整合誤差修正模型
外文關鍵詞:Natural RubberSupplyDemandCointegrationError correction model
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天然橡膠是印尼經濟前景是非常被看好的一種外匯商品,在印尼經濟危機時期依然存留下來的。可以看出,在全球出口發展的背景下,全球橡膠出口每年增加。本研究在探討印尼橡膠的主要進口國家,如美國和中國之間的貿易的趨勢及主要競爭對手是泰國之比較。以短期及長期來看供給和需求來看印尼天然橡膠出口在進口國的收入變化的影響關係分析。本研究使用共整合方法、誤差修正模型來回答第二個目標。
根據研究結果,過去十年全球天然橡膠出口趨於增加。在生產上也趨於增加。影響美國進口天然橡膠的需求的主要因素是國內生產總值(GDP)的彈性反應,長期速度調整係數大於短期。雖然美國進口的天然橡膠的進口量對實際價格的變化較不敏感。
中國天然橡膠的進口需求是相對價格和國內生產總值(GDP)在短期時沒有反應。收入彈性大於價格彈性,這種情況表示,在出口收入變化的影響將大於進口價格的變化。
印尼對美國的天然橡膠出口價格彈性大於泰國。顯示印尼的天然橡膠出口在美國市場的主導地位。同時,泰國天然橡膠出口的主要市場在中國市場,因其彈性大於印尼。

Natural rubber is a commodity that contributes to foreign exchange countries and has pretty good economic prospect for being able to survive during the economic crisis that hit Indonesia. In the context of development of world exports is seen that the world rubber exports had growth each year. This study examine the trend of rubber trade between Indonesia and the major importer countries such as United States and China, and the main competitor is Thailand as comparison. Analysing the relationship between short run and long run supply and demand of export and import Indonesian natural rubber and the response to the income changing in importer country. To answer the second objective cointegration approach, error correction model has used in this study. According to the result, the world's natural rubber exports in the last ten years in general tend to increase. The same thing also happened on the 3 quantity production of natural rubber. Dominant factor which influencing import demand of natural rubber in the USA is gross domestic product with the response which elastic, within short-run nor the long term with the speed from coefficients adjustment which relatively large. While the quantity of imports is not responsive to the changes in the real price of U.S. imports of natural rubber.
Import demand of natural rubber in China was not responsive toward relative price and gross domestic product in the short-run. Income elasticity is greater than price elasticity, this condition indicate that the impact in the income change will be greater than price import change.
Price elasticity of Indonesia's natural rubber exports greater than Thailand for the USA. market shows the dominance of Indonesia's natural rubber exports in the USA market. Meanwhile, Thailand's natural rubber export dominance is in the China market due to its elasticity greater than in Indonesia.

TABLE OF CONTENT
摘要 I
ABSTRACT III
ABSTRAK VI
TABLE OF CONTENT VII
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURE VII
TABLES VII
FIGURE VII
I. INTRODUCTION 1
摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
ABSTRAK IV
TABLE OF CONTENTS VII
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES X
TABLES X
FIGURE X
I. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1. Background 1
1.2. Problems of study 3
1.3. Objective of Study 5
1.4. Organization of Study 6
II. LITTERATURE REVIEW 8
2.1. Previous Research 8
2.2. International Trade 10
2.2.1. Absolute Advantage 10
2.2.2. Comparative Advantage 11
2.2.3. Barriers to Trade 12
2.2.4. Non-Tariff Barriers 13
2.3. Demand 15
2.3.1. Import demand 15
2.3.2. Export demand 16
2.3.3. World demand 17
2.4. Supply 18
2.4.1. Import Supply 18
2.4.2. Export Supply 19
2.4.3. World Supply 20
2.5. Type Quality Natural Rubber 21
2.5.2. RSS (Ribbed Smoked Sheets) 22
2.5.3. Latex 22
III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 24
3.1. Conceptual Framework 24
3.2. Hypothesis 26
3.3. Data and Model Specification 27
3.3.1. Model Specification 27
3.4. Analysis procedure 30
3.4.1. Root unit test 30
3.4.2. Cointegration Test 31
3.4.3. Model Estimation Methods 31
3.4.4. Diagnostic test 31
IV. EMPIRICAL RESULT AND ANALYSIS 32
4.1. Trend Analysis of Natural Rubber 32
4.1.1. Indonesian Natural Rubber 32
4.2. The relationship of the natural rubber trade in the short-run and the long-run 40
4.2.1. Unit Root Test 41
4.2.2. Import Demand of Natural Rubber 45
4.2.3. Elasticity of Import Real Price for natural rubber and income 48
4.2.4. Export Demand of Natural Rubber in The United States of America 50
4.2.6. Import Supply 55
4.2.7. Export supply of natural rubber 57
4.2.8. Real Export Price Elasticity of Natural Rubber 59
V. CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION 61
5.1. Conclusion 61
5.2. Suggestion 62
REFERENCE 63
APPENDIX 67
Appendix 1 Variable Definition 67
Appendix 2 Root test 68
Appendix 3. Vector Error Correction Estimates 70
BIOSKETCH OF AUTHOR 71

1. English References
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2. Internet References
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Global Rubber Market. 2013. Tokyo Commodity Exchange. Assesed from, http://www.globalrubbermarketss.com/.
Guppy, Daryl. 2010. Rubber shows its elasticity as market prices bounce about. Assessed from, http://www.chinadaily.com/.
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