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研究生:韋菈
研究生(外文):Vera Sylvia Saragi Sitio
論文名稱:印尼主要進口生鮮水果需求分析
論文名稱(外文):Import Demand For Selective Fresh Fruits in Indonesia
指導教授:黃文琪黃文琪引用關係Syahfrial
指導教授(外文):Huang, WenchiSyahfrial
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立屏東科技大學
系所名稱:農企業管理系所
學門:農業科學學門
學類:農業經濟及推廣學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2013
畢業學年度:101
論文頁數:60
中文關鍵詞:近似理想需求系統模型彈性生鮮水果進口需求
外文關鍵詞:Almost Ideal Demand SystemElasticitiesFresh FruitImport demand
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自1998年金融危機後,印尼新鮮水果的進口需求一直在增加。進口比率持續全面性的增加。新鮮水果消費增加的原因是因為消費者對健康飲食的認知與消費習慣的改變,而消費者平均人均年收入增加也是影響因素之一。然而,印尼主要進口新鮮水果前三名為柳橙,蘋果和梨子。這幾種新鮮水果的主要進口來源為中國。
本研究的目的是對主要進口生鮮水果進行需求的推估並以消費價格和收入的變化來估計需求彈性價格。本研究以建立線性近似理想需求系統模型(LA/ AIDS)和非線性近似需求體系(ITSUR)模型進行使用需求函數的推估。
研究結果顯示,利用AIDS 棤式推估進口需求時,柳橙和梨子相較於果有較高的所得彈性。非線性AIDS模估算結顯示柳橙的時間趨勢變數為負值(-0.015);而蘋果和梨子為正值(分別為0.006與1.009)。本身價格彈性在金融危機前柳橙與梨子為富於彈性,而蘋果則無彈性;而金融危機後,三者皆變成無彈性。有價格交叉彈性在金融危機前皆為替代品,不過金融危機後柳橙與蘋果為互補品,而梨子則為替代品。

Indonesia’s import demand for fresh fruits has been rising since 1998 after the financial crisis. The import share increase has been across the board. This is influence by some factors: changes consumer perception and habits toward better health for consuming more fresh fruits and also increasing per capta income per capita. However, on the top of the list import by major Indonesia’s on fresh fruits are oranges, apples and pears. The Indonesian market for these selective imported fresh fruits is dominated by China in Asian fruits markets.
The purpose of this study is to estimate consumer demand to estimate demand elasticities for these selective fresh fruits using consumer
responsiveness to price and income changes. The methods of this study are Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) model, non linear AIDS model with Iterative Seeming Unrelated Regression (ITSUR) procedure, for demand analysis.
The estimated results using LA/AIDS show that oranges and pears have higher income elasticities than apple. The non-linear AIDS shows that the time for oranges are negative (-0.015), while for apples and pears are positive (0.006) and (1.009), respectively. The own-price compensated elasticities, before the financial crisis indicate elastic for oranges and pears and inelastic for apples, whereas after the financial crisis they were all inelastic for all selective fresh. Cross-price compensated elasticities, before the financial crisis, all selective fresh fruits are substitute goods, but after the financial crisis oranges and apples become complementary goods while pears substitute goods. For oranges and apples has a positive sign. After the financial crisis, all three fresh fruits had negative sign. Thus, for pear are more sensitively on income and price change than oranges and apples.
Keywords: Almost Ideal Demand System, Elasticities, Fresh Fruits, Import Demand

TABLE CONTENTS
摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT VI
TABLE CONTENTS VII
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES IX
I. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Problem Statement and Justification 3
1.3 Objective of Study 6
1.4 Organization of The Study 7
II. LITERATURE RIVIEW 8
2.1 Previous Studies 8
2.2 Consumer Demand Theory 9
2.3 Consumer Allocation Systems 10
2.4 The General Condition of Fresh Fruit 11
2.5 Overview of The Selective Fresh Fruit in Indonesia 12
2.5.1 Oranges Fresh Fruit 14
2.5.2 Apples Fresh Fruit 15
2.5.3. Pears Fresh Fruit 16
III. METHODOGLY 17
3.1 Conceptual Framework 17
3.2 Two Utility Based Approaches of The Demand System 20
3.2.1 Utility Function 20
3.2.2 Indirect Utility Function 21
3.3 Empirical Model 23
3.4 Data Sources 28
3.5 Hypothesis Analysis 29
IV. RESULT AND DISCUSSION 30
4.1 Descriptive Statistics 30
4.2 Empirical Results 33
4.2.1 Properties of The Demand Function 33
4.2.2 Estimation Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) Model 34
4.2.3 Estimation Non-Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) Model 37
4.3 Elasticities Estimate 40
4.3.1 Compensated Elasticities (Hicksian Elasticities) 40
4.3.2 Uncompensated Elasticities (Marshallian Price Elasticities) 42
4.3.3. Expenditure Elasticities 43
V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 45
5.1 Conclusions 45
5.2 Recommendations 46
REFERENCES 47
APPENDIX 53
Appendix A . Estimate LA/AIDS Model 53
Appendix B. Estimate Non-Linear AIDS Model 54
Appendix C. Graph of Budget Share Selective Fresh Fruit 57
Appendix D. Graph of Elasticities for Selective Fresh Fruits Before The Financial Crisis 58
Appendix E . Graph of Elasticities for Selective Fresh Fruits After The Financial Crisis 59
BIOSKETCH OF AUTHOR 60

REFERENCES
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