臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

消費-所得比的定態性與否在實證研究上目前仍無一致之結論。本文採用1951至2010年的OECD 國家資料分析此議題, 透過Lee and Wu (2012) 發展之BCIPS 追蹤資料單根檢定模型, 考慮了跨個體相關且以傅立葉函數捕捉結構性變化, 將過去Im et al.(2003) 與Pesaran (2007) 之模型無考慮到的因素加入模型中, 並簡化以虛擬變數估計結構性變化的不方便性, 增加實證研究的可行性。
實證結果顯示, IPS 與CIPS 追蹤資料單根檢定模型, 無論是否考慮跨個體相關, 其結果皆為接受單根, 然考慮結構性變化後的BCIPS 追蹤資料單根模型卻得到了拒絕消費-所得比為單根數列的相反結論, 因此, 長期下工業經濟體的消費-所得比不會因事件的衝擊而造成恆常性的影響。

There is no consistent conclusion about the stationarity of consumption-income ratio in the related empirical literatures. This paper applies BCIPS panel unit root test proposed by Lee and Wu (2012) that accounts for cross-sectional dependence and Fourier function to test the stationarity of 26 OECD countries’ consumption-income ratios over the period 1951-2010. This test modified the panel unit root tests of Im et al. (2003) and Pesaran (2007) and simplified the complexity by using dummy variables to capture structural breaks.
The result shows IPS and CIPS tests accept the null hypothesis of unit root that the consumption-income ratio. However, after incorporating the possibility of structural breaks, the result is different, is stationarity. Shocks are likely to have transitory effects on the consumption-income ratios in 26 OECD countries.

1 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 研究目的. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.3 研究架構. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2 文獻回顧 3
2.1 單根檢定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2.2 單根檢定模型回顧. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.2.1 DF單根檢定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.2.2 ADF單根檢定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.2.3 PP單根檢定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.2.4 KPSS單根檢定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7
2.2.5 IPS追蹤資料單根檢定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2.2.6 CIPS追蹤資料單根檢定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2.3 消費-所得比的實證文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.4 結構性變化與傅立葉函數探討. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . 11
3 研究方法 13
3.1 模型介紹. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3.2 殘差無序列相關的單根檢定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
3.3 以BCADF 為基礎的追蹤資料單根檢定. . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
3.4 具序列相關的殘差項. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
4 實證結果分析 19
4.1 資料來源與說明. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
4.2 單根迴歸模型選擇. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
4.3 單變量單根檢定結果. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
4.4 追蹤資料單根檢定結果. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
5 結論 26
參考文獻 27
附錄 33

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