臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

政府公債的信用評等是評估政府債務不履行的相對可能性，等級越高代表償債能力越強，違約機率越低。本研究主要目的係探討開源或節流，何者更有益於主權信用評等，並加入租稅收入與政府支出為主要變數，以深入研究增加租稅收入來開源或是減少政府支出來節流，何者可有效提升公債之信用評等。實證結果顯示，提高租稅收入並增加政府支出可提升政府償債能力，本研究結果意味著，開源比節流更能提高政府償債能力，提升信用評等。

Sovereign ratings can assesse the possibility of thenonperformance of government debt. The higher level of sovereign rating means better debt-paying ability and lower default probability. The purpose of this study is to investigate increasing tax revenue or reducing government expenditure is more beneficial to enhance sovereign ratings. Tax revenue and government expenditure are the explanatory variables of this study. The empirical results show that increasing both tax revenues and govenment expenditure are beneficial to sovereign ratings. This results suggest that the government should adopt increasing tax revenues but not reducing government expenditure as the financial policy in order to enhance the sovereign ratings.

誌謝 I
中文摘要 II
ASTRACT III
目錄 IV
表目錄 VI
圖目錄 VIII
第一章　緒論 1
第一節　研究背景 1
第二節　研究動機及目的 2
第三節　研究流程 5
第二章　文獻探討 6
第一節　主權信用評等相關文獻 6
第三章　研究方法 13
第一節　實證方法 13
第二節模型建構 16
第四章　樣本選取 18
第一節　資料來源 18
第二節　敘述統計量 20
第五章　實證分析與結果 22
第一節　相關性分析 22
第二節　多變量ORDERED PROBIT迴歸結果之一 25
第三節　多變量ORDERED PROBIT迴歸結果之二 33
第四節　多變量ORDERED PROBIT迴歸結果之三 41
第六章　結論與建議 49
參考文獻 50

一.網站
鉅亨金融中心，http://www.cnyes.com/fc/allrating.asp?area=GL&his=。
二.中文部分
何欣樺，2012，經濟結構對經濟成長與主權信用評等之影響，天主教輔仁大學金融與國際企業學系碩士論文。
鄭行甫，2010，國家主權評等與主權信用違約交換，國立台灣大學財務金融學系碩士論文。
賴雨柔，2011，主權信用違約風險之研究，國立臺灣大學財務金融學系碩士論文。
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