臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

“The global video game market is undergoing a tectonic shift with the emergence of mobile social games cannibalizing its console brethren. Several forces are catalyzing this process, including the world wide proliferation of smart phone devices at a pace dramatically exceeding console sales, China’s refusal to lift the ban of consoles, and evolving consumer purchasing habits towards cheaper, casual games. While correct in predicting the explosion of mobile social games, most gaming industry analysts largely dismiss the possibility that the two mediums can coexist. In this business plan, I expand the definition of “gamer” to people who would not have been circumscribed by the term before the advent of smart phone games. I then develop historical, qualitative, and quantitative arguments that suggest numerous business opportunities which straddle both mediums to generate profit through the company called Cross Counter.

I present a 3 year plan to raise capital for the YouTube video content production company and introduce the personnel necessary to carry out the various tasks, and suggest key strategic markets to focus on within the Asia-Pacific region. At the heart of the business is the Downloadable Contents “DLC” pricing model which aims to assess the optimum pricing strategy in relation to the major variables transaction security, Metacritic score, time to market, gregariousness, and base cost price. As no business venture is devoid of risk, I delineate the potential pitfalls such a startup company can encounter during this precarious period of console market stagnation and mobile game growth. The results show that the Cross Counter: Asia can take advantage of its nimble structure and deftly position itself as a major provider of eSports content production while operating as a social business to promote gamer wellness and more active participation by female gamers.”

Table of Contents
1.0 Executive Summary………......................…………………………...…………1-3
2.0 Introduction and Background of Business………................……………4-12
2.1 Mission Statement………………………...............………………….4
2.2 Introduction to Business…………...............………………..4
2.3 Social Business……………………….............……………...…5
2.3.1 Primary Objectives…......................………………..7
2.3.2 Keys to Success……………….................….……...…..…..7
2.4 Statement of Purpose……………...........................………….……10
3.0 Market Analysis………………………..…………..............……………..12-27
3.1 Historical Look of the Video Game Industry………..............……….12
3.2 Japanese Video Game Industry…………….............………...13-16
3.2.1 Nintendo…………………………..............…………..13-17
3.3 Next Generation Consoles and Development Times…..........…17-20
3.4 Weakness in the Japanese Markets…..........................................….20
DLC Contents……………………………….....................………….22
3.5 Mobile Gaming……………………….....................…………..24-28
4.0 Products and Services………………………….......................…………......29-56
4.1 Online Game Streaming……………………...............…………....29-31
4.2 eSports Team Management…………………..........…………...31-33
4.3 Event Coverage. ………………………….............……..……..33-34
4.4 Distribution and Retail……………..…..............………...35-36
4.5 DLC Pricing Model……………...………..............………….38-56
4.51 The Dangers of On Disc Locked DLC……...........….…..41
4.52 Time to Market...............................................................................45
4.53 FIFA 12…….........................................…..............……………...48
4.54 Cooperation and Camaraderie…...........................….........................….49
4.55 Security and DLC……........….................................................………...51
4.5.6 MetaCritic Sensitivity and Attach Rates..........................................54-56
5.0 SWOT Analysis…………….……...................................……………...56-67
5.1 Strengths………….......……….........................………………….56
5.2 Weaknesses…………………...............................…………………57-58
5.3 Opportunities………………............................…………………….58-62
5.3.1 Brazil………………………..........................................…………….59
5.3.2 League of Legends……….........................……………..………. 61
5.4 Threats…………………………….....…….................………………63
5.4.1 China and Tencent…………………..............……………….67
6.0 Organization and Management Team…….......……..........………...67-68
7.0 Financial and Business Model: Assumptions………....…..........….……….68-71
7.1 Financial Statement Analysis………………..…....................……..…..71
7.1.1 Fixed Costs and Costs of Goods Sold...................................... 72
7.1.2 Projected Cash Flow (Exhibit 7)….........................…………..74
7.1.3 Projected Balance Sheet (Exhibit 8)…...........................………….75-79
8.0 Uncertainty and Risks………………………….........………………...79-82
8.1 Inter-competiton with Cross Counter TV Main Channel….79
8.2 Difficulty of Monetization on Mobile Format….................………81
9.0 Exit Opportunity………………………………….............……………...82-84
10.0 Conclusion.............................................................................................84-85

List of Exhibits and Figures

Exhibit 1 Subscription Module in Email Inbox………….………………...90
Exhibit 2 Hardware Game Totals to Date………………….……………...90
Exhibit 3 Average Time Spent on Internet in China……………………...91
Exhibit 4 Internet Population in China 304.1 Million Players……………91
Exhibit 5 Average Age of Chinese Internet User…………………………92
Exhibit 6 Major Chinese Cell Phone Operators and User Amounts….…..92
Exhibit 7 Profit and Loss for 2012 ...................................................90
Exhibit 7a Conservative Projected Profit and Loss for 2013 ...….................91
Exhibit 7b Optimistic Projected Profit and Loss for 2013 ...….................92
Exhibit 8 Projected Cash Flows For 2012…...................…….………..93
Exhibit 9 Expected Balance Sheet from 2013-2016……………….97-98
Exhibit 10 eSports Team Logo……………………....……………………98
Exhibit 11 YouTube Likes and Dislikes…………………………………..99
Exhibit 12 Comments and Engagement and Shares…..............…………100
Exhibit 13 Downloadable Contents Survey..............................101
Exhibit 14 Physical versus Digital Distribution Preference................................102

Figure 1 Age and Ratio of Viewers…......................................................………5
Figure 2 Video View Playback Location...........…........................................…….8
Figure 3 Viewership and Minutes Watched By Country..........................................…..8
Figure 4 Social Business Assumption……………...............................…...10
Figure 5 Global Video Game Sales for Japan……........…..........................13
Figure 6 Japanese Video Game Sales by Region……...........................…....21
Figure 7 Worldwide Sales of DLC……………….........................................22
Figure 8 Mobile Phones: Regular vs Smartphones.................................25
Figure 9 Mobile Phone Gamers in the US….....................................…..26
Figure 10 Mobile DLC Sales According to Region…................….........27
Figure 11 Online Survey........................................................................38
Figure 12 DLC Attach Rates Versus Price Sensitivity...........................40
Figure 13 Point Cards (Examples of Breakage)......................................41
Figure 14 DLC Fiasco Comic…….............................................................44
Figure 15 Attach Rate % Versus DLC Location on Disc...........................45
Figure 16 Time to Market…………………...........................................……46
Figure 17 Time to Market versus Pieces of DLC release.............................46
Figure 18 Analyst Expectations for Electronic Arts 2013.............................….47
Figure 19 FIFA Ultimate Team.................……………...................................…49
Figure 20 Survey on Payment Method....................................................51
Figure 21 Method of Payment and Security Concerns...........................55
Figure 22 Metacritic Score and Attach Rates...........................................55
Figure 23 Average Revenue per DLC vs Metacritic Score....................61
Figure 24 Latin America Gaming Market…........................................…60
Figure 25 League of Legends Player Base…......................................…… 62
Figure 26 Demographic of League of Legend Players….............................…63
Figure 27 Percentage of Chinese Using Internet…...................................65
Figure 28 Average Chinese User By Application......................................66
Figure 29 Financial Business Model Chart......................................................68
Figure 30 Singapore Cybersports Organization Logo…................................…70
Figure 31 Cash Flow for 2012……….……..........................................……75
Figure 32 Event Schedule and Income for 2013..........................................….77
Figure 33 Optional Events……..................………………........................ 78
Figure 34 Global Viewership…………………...........................................79
Figure 35 YouKu Search Results for “Cross Counter”..............................80
Figure 36 Video Views Sources...............................................................81

References

1.Chakesfield, Mark. Modern Warfare 3, Biggest Entertainment Launch Ever. (November 11th, 2011). Retrieved from http://www.techradar.com/news/gaming/modern-warfare-3-biggest-entertainment-launch-ever-1040483

2.Webb, Charles. Interview: The Big Broadcast - TwitchTV, eSports, and Making it Big as an Online Gamer (May 2nd, 2012) Retrieved from http://multiplayerblog.mtv.com/2012/05/02/interview-the-big-broadcast-twitchtv-esports-and-making-it-big-as-an-online-gamer

3.Miller Patrick.“Twitch.tv Releases iPhone App, Feeds Your Addiction.” (October 31st, 2011) Retrieved From: http://www.pcworld.com/article/242753/twitch_tv_releases_iphone_app_feeds_your_addiction.html
4.Dreamhack And Twitch-tv Announce Record Breaking Online Viewership (2011) Retrieved From:http://www.dreamhack.se/dhw11/2011/12/06/dreamhack-and-twitch-tv-announce-record-breaking-online-viewership/

5.IGN News. “IGN Pro League Now Biggest eSports League; Delivers Largest Single Event in North American eSports History” (April 17, 2012)Retrieved From:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ign-pro-league-now-biggest-esports-league-delivers-largest-single-event-in-north-american-esports-history-147739915.html

6.Capcommuity Forums.“Brelston Blog” (March 16, 2012) Retrieved From:http://www.capcom-unity.com/brelston/blog/2012/03/16/new_costumes,_gems,_patches_and_more_coming_to_street_fighter_x_tekken”

7.Carter, Jonathan Grey. “Visceral Defends Dead Space 3” (March 8th, 2013). Retrieved From:http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/122564-Visceral-Defends-Dead-Space-3-DLC

8.Moore, Peter. “Bank of America Merill Lynch Global Technology Conference 2012 (transcript). Retrieved from: http://investor.ea.com//eventdetail.cfm?eventid=113335

9.Jetro “Domestic and Worldwide Video Game Shipments for Japan” Japan Economic Monthly. (2005). Retrieved from: http://www.jetro.go.jp/en/reports/market/pdf/2005_49_r.pdf

10.Vgchartz “Worldwide Console Sales” (2012) Retrieved From http://www.vgchartz.com/

11.Leack, Jonathan “Gran Turismo 6” (November 13, 2011) Retrieved from: http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2011/11/13/now-that-gran-turismo-6-is-in-development-will-it-be-for-ps3-or-ps4/

12.Ludwig Keitzmann “Keiji Inafune remains critical of Japanese games, deems even Capcom ''complacent''” (September 20, 2010) Retrieved From:http://www.joystiq.com/2010/09/20/keiji-inafune-remains-critical-of-japanese-games-deems-even-cap/

13.Lejacq, YannickDeNA, “Japanese Mobile Game Company, Reports Record $627M in Quarterly Revenue” (November 6, 2012) Retrieved From
http://www.ibtimes.com/dena-japanese-mobile-game-company-reports-record-627m-quarterly-revenue-861676

14.Gilbert, Ben. “Zynga lost over $400 million in 2011 while 58.5 million people played its games every day” (February 14, 2012)Retrieved From
http://www.joystiq.com/2012/02/14/zynga-lost-over-400-million-in-2011-while-58-5-million-people-p/
15.Wild. “Japanese social game DeNA stop using the game to pay function” (May 9th, 2012) Retrieved From
http://www.venturedata.org/?i443878_Japanese-social-game-DeNA-stop-using-the-game-to-pay-function

16.Gamasutra “Brazil has Record New Attendance in 5th Edition” (October 23, 2012) Retrieved Fromhttp://www.gamasutra.com/view/pressreleases/179934/Brasil_Game_Show_BGS_has_new_record_attendance_in_its_5thedition.php

17.Super Data Research “Latin America Market Research” Retrieved from http://www.superdataresearch.com

18.NewZoo “Games Industry Blog” (November 2012) Retrieved From http://www.gamesindustryblog.com/2012/11/social-gaming-market-grows-25-in-brazil-infographic/

19.Makuch, Eddie “Gears of War Sells Minority Stake to Chinese Internet Company” (June 12th, 2012) Retrieved From http://asia.gamespot.com/news/gears-of-war-studio-sells-minority-stake-to-chinese-internet-company-6383233

20.Amanda Lenhart, Sydney Jones, Alexandra Macgill “Adults and Video Games” (2008) Retrieved from http://pewinternet.org/Reports/2008/Adults-and-Video-Games.aspx


Figures

Figure 1 “Age and Male to Female Ratio of Viewership” Cross Counter TV YouTube Analytics Page http://www.youtube.com/user/crosscountertv

Figure 2 “Video View Playback Location” Cross Counter TV YouTube Analytics Page http://www.youtube.com/user/crosscountertv

Figure 3 “Figure 3 Viewership and Minutes Watched by Country” Cross Counter TV YouTube Analytics Page http://www.youtube.com/user/crosscountertv

Figure 4 “Social Business Assumptions” User Generated

Figure 5 “Domestic and Worldwide Video Game Shipments for Japan” Japan Economic Monthly. 2005. Retrieved from: http://www.jetro.go.jp/en/reports/market/pdf/2005_49_r.pdf

Figure 6 “Japanese Video Game Sales by Region” Tokyo Game Show. Retrieved from: www.tgs.cesa.or.jp

Figure 7 “Worldwide DLC Market” Capcom Internal Development Report (October 5, 2012) Retrieved from: http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/business/market.html

Figure 8 “Mobile Phones Shipments: Regular vs Smartphones” Yano Research Institue (June 26th, 2012) Retrieved from: http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/business/market.html

Figure 9 “Mobile Phone Gamers in the US” Matt Silverman (June 21st, 2012) Retrieved from http://mashable.com/2012/06/20/video-game-industry/

Figure 10 Mobile DLC Sales According to Region Yano Research Institute (June 26th, 2012) Retrieved from: http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/business/market.html

Figure 11 "Cross Counter Online Survey." Self Generated

Figure 12 "DLC Attach Rates Versus Price Sensitivity." Self Generated

Figure 13 "Point Cards (Examples of Breakage)." Google Image Search

Figure 14 “A Good Analogy for the Street Fighter x Tekken DLC Debacle.” Fred Wood. Retrieved from: The Penny Arcade

Figure 15 "Attach Rate % Versus DLC Location on Disc." Self Generated
Figure 16 "Time to Market versus # of tracked DLC." Self Generated
Figure 17 "Attach Rates Versus Time to Market." Self Generated
Figure 18 “Analyst Expectations for Electronic Arts 2013” Retrieved from: Yahoo Finance
Figure 19 “FIFA Ultimate Team” Retrieved from: http://www.ea.com/intl/football/fifa/fifa-ultimate-team

Figure 20 "Gregariousness and the positive effects towards attach rates." Self-generated
Figure 21 "Cross Counter Survey on Payment method and Attach Rates." Self-generated

Figure 22 "Payment Method and DLC Attach Rates" Self-generated

Figure 23 "Average Revenue per DLC vs Metacritic Score." Self-generated

Figure 10 “Physical versus Digital Distribution” Retrieved from: https://www.npd.com/latest-reports/impact-of-digital-online-gaming-brief/


Figure 24 “Latin America Market Research” Super Data Research. (2012) Retrieved from http://www.superdataresearch.com

Figure 25 “League of Legends Player Base” Riot Games (2012) Retrieved from http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Components/Photo/_new/101112_RiotGames_LoL_InfoGraphic.jpg

Figure 26 “Demographic and Education League of Legends Player Base” Riot Games (2012) http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Components/Photo/_new/101112_RiotGames_LoL_InfoGraphic.jpg

Figure 27 “UN Broadband Report 2012”Retrieved from http://www.broadbandcommission.org/Documents/bb-annualreport2012.pdf

Figure 28 “Average Online Chinese Users By Application” China Internet Statistics White Paper (2011) Retrieved from http://www.chinainternetwatch.com/whitepaper/china-internet-statistics/

Figure 29 Social Business Model Assumptions (Self Generated)
Figure 30 “Scoga Logo” Google search results for ‘Scoga’

Figure 31 “Cash Flow” User Generated

Figure 32 “High Priority Events with Projected Net Income and COGS” User Generated

Figure 33 “Optional Events” User Generated

Figure 34 Geography of YouTube Fans” Cross Counter TV YouTube Analytics Page http://www.youtube.com/user/crosscountertv

Figure 35 “YouKu Search Results for “Cross Counter” YouKu search results for ‘Scoga’

Figure 36 “Video Views Sources” Cross Counter TV YouTube Analytics Page http://www.youtube.com/user/crosscountertv