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研究生:吳宜靜
研究生(外文):Yi-Ching Wu
論文名稱:信用卡使用特性對未來消費靜止行為之預測
論文名稱(外文):Predicting Dormant Accounts through Credit Card Holders’ Consumption Behavior.
指導教授:任立中任立中引用關係
口試委員:劉祥熹黃哲盛
口試日期:2013-06-08
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:國際企業學研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2013
畢業學年度:101
語文別:中文
論文頁數:72
中文關鍵詞:資料庫行銷靜止戶
外文關鍵詞:Database marketingDormant account
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  當市場愈來愈競爭,商品愈來愈龐雜,資訊愈來愈氾濫的時代下,企業想取得一位新顧客已變得比過去更為困難,且新顧客所能帶來的貢獻也往往不如企業的預期,故行銷人員們開始關注在顧客的保留,找出可能流失的顧客,並給予有效的行銷刺激。
  為了找出正確目標,本研究以某知名銀行之信用卡資料庫建立持卡戶的靜止預測模型,採羅吉斯及普羅比迴歸分析方式,顧客未來短中長期是否靜止為依變數,帶入各項變數,來預測顧客的靜止行為,並研究各變數與靜止行為的相關性,以推論出長短期靜止顧客的消費特性。
  本研究設立了幾種指標變數以加強對顧客行為的描述,「活躍性指標」描述顧客刷卡區間是否愈趨縮短;「穩定性指標」描述顧客消費次數相較於群體的差異;「危險率」考量顧客的最近購買期間及過去購買行為後在當下購買的機率;及「強弱比」顧客在此銀行的消費金額相較於他行的比率。
  而根據研究結果顯示,本研究所設立的靜止預測模型,其預測能力確實較銀行過去的判斷方式更為有效。且所建立的各項指標也具有相當的顯著力,並顯示長短期靜止顧客的特性。行銷人員未來可藉這些指標或預測模型,作為靜止的警訊,以增加行銷活動,強化顧客與銀行的往來關係。


Under the increasingly competitive marketplace, especially consumers being affected by numerous products and information floods, it’s extremely difficult for enterprises to acquire new customers. Moreover, the earnings generated by those of whom are not as many as they expected. As a result, the marketing specialists are then turning their attention to customer retention, i.e., they identify lost customers and try to let them come back by providing effective marketing incentives.
The object of this study is to use the credit card database to construct a prediction model for dormant accounts. We used Logistic and Probit regression models as analyzing tools, dormant status in short term and long term as independent variable, and consumption behavior as dependent variables to predict the probability to dormant. And we also analyzed correlation and significant level of every dependent variable to find out the difference between short term dormant and long term dormant.
In this study, we established four indexes to describe customers’ behavior. Customer Active Index could tell whether the interval of consumptions is getting more frequent periods; Customer Reliability Index could tell whether the numbers of consumption is strongly different from the group; Hazard Ratio is the probability that the tested party shop at the moment considering his nearest purchasing period and previous patterns; and Strength ratio is the same as share of wallet.
In conclusion, the dormant prediction model brings better result than the traditional way the bank used. Furthermore, those four indexes we created were strongly significant, which could explain the character of short-term and long-term dormant users. Based on this study, the marketing specialists could use these indexes and model as alarm to predict dormant accounts and then take action in advance to consolidate their relationship further.


致謝 I
論文摘要 II
Abstract III
目錄 IV
圖目錄 VI
表目錄 VIII
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機 2
第三節 研究目的 3
第四節 研究範圍與問題 3
第五節 論文架構 4
第二章 文獻探討 5
第一節 顧客關係管理 5
一、 顧客關係管理之定義 5
二、 顧客關係管理之模式與流程 7
三、 顧客關係管理的功能 10
第二節 資料庫行銷 12
一、 資料庫行銷之定義 12
二、 資料庫行銷之功能 13
三、 資料庫行銷之應用 15
第三節 顧客靜止 17
第三章 研究方法 19
第一節 研究架構 19
第二節 分析方法 20
一、 顧客活躍性指標(Customer Activity Index, CAI) 20
二、 顧客穩定指數(Customer Reliability Index, CRI) 24
三、 危險率(Hazard Ratio) 28
四、 羅吉斯迴歸模型(Logistic Regression Model) 31
五、 普羅比迴歸模式 (Probit Regression Model) 33
六、 模型效力之驗證-CAP(Cumulative Accuracy Profiles Curve) 33
第四章 實證研究 35
第一節 資料簡介 35
一、 人口統計資料 37
二、 顧客持卡情形 38
三、 顧客購買行為 42
第二節 指標分析 47
一、 顧客活躍性指標 47
二、 顧客穩定性指標 48
三、 危險率分析 50
四、 強弱比 52
第三節 靜止戶模型預測 54
一、 預測模型建立 56
二、 模型預測力測試 62
三、 CAP曲線比較 64
第五章 結論與建議 66
第一節 研究結論 66
第二節 行銷意涵 68
第三節 研究限制與後續研究建議 69
參考文獻 70


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