臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

民間投資被視為經濟成長的重要動力來源，面對當前景氣衰退，各國先後祭出寬鬆貨幣政策，希望藉此提振民間投資並刺激經濟成長。ｑ理論連結股價指數與公司投資，同時提供了貨幣政策明確的傳導過程。本文選用11家台灣指標性上市公司資料，樣本期間涵蓋2004~2011年，以OLS、固定效果模型與隨機效果模型，對ｑ理論進行實證分析，觀察台灣公司只固定投資是否受到股價指數之正向影響。迴歸結果顯示，不論在上述何種模型之下，所選之11家台灣上市公司的固定投資率與ｑ值皆呈現顯著負相關，不符合學理上之預期。推究可能原因為，1.台灣股市投機性高、2.所選上市公司之資金來源多為信用貸款而非現金增資、3.公司發放現金股利、4.ｑ值僅供外部投資人參考。

Investment is very important to the economic. Countries start the monetary easing to cope with the decline around world. Hoping to rise the investment by firms and stimulate the economics. q theory connects the firm’s investment with the stock price index and provides monetary policy an exact way to affect the investment. The research objects are 11 Taiwan listed leading firms. The duration of the sample information is from 2004 to 2011. This study uses OLS, fixed effect Model and random effect model for analysis to investigate that if the q theory is applicable in Taiwan. This empirical research draws a conclusion that q ratio has significant negative effect on the fixed asset investment in every kinds of models. This result is different from the classical q theory. The possible reasons are listed below, 1. Taiwan’s capital market is speculative. 2. Capital resource is not cash. 3. Cash dividends. 4. q ratio is not a considered factor for the insider while investing.

目錄
第一章 緒論………………………………………………………………………06
1.1 研究動機與背景………………………………………………………………06
1.2 研究目的………………………………………………………………………08
1.3 研究架構………………………………………………………………………09
第二章 文獻回顧…………………………………………………………………10
2.1 q 理論…………………………………………………………………………10
2.2 相關文獻探討…………………………………………………………………12
第三章 模型設定及資料處理……………………………………………………17
3.1 模型建立………………………………………………………………………17
3.1.1 最小平方法……………………………………………………………17
3.1.2 固定效果模型、隨機效果模型………………………………………17
3.2 研究方法介紹…………………………………………………………………18
3.3 資料來源與變數處理…………………………………………………………22
3.3.1 實證樣本選擇…………………………………………………………22
3.3.2 變數定義………………………………………………………………22
4.1 OLS迴歸模型…………………………………………………………………25
4.2 固定效果模型…………………………………………………………………27
4.3 隨機效果模型…………………………………………………………………28
4.4 最佳模型選擇…………………………………………………………………30
4.5 固定效果模型檢定……………………………………………………………31
4.6 固定效果模型修正異質性……………………………………………………32
4.7 去除異質性與營業利益之固定效果模型……………………………………33
第五章 結論與建議………………………………………………………………36
參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………39
ㄧ、中文文獻………………………………………………………………………39
二、英文文獻………………………………………………………………………40

一、中文文獻
王乃善 (1999)，「公司宣布發放股票股利的財富效果:投資機會假說與自由現金 流量理論所扮演的角色」，朝陽科技大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
李靜如 (2001)， 「我國上市公司使用銀行貸款、槓桿與托賓 Q 關聯之實證研究」，中原大學國際貿易碩士論文。
周本鄂 (1993),「台灣地區上市公司董監事、關係人持股比率和公司 Tobin’s Q 關係之實證研究」，中原大學公司管理研究所碩士論文。
俞海琴、陳慧娟 (1999)，「我國上市公司成長、槓桿與托賓 Q 關聯之研究」，風險管理學報，第一卷，第一期，P.81-101。
姜義軒 (2000)，「台灣電子產業與非電子產業 Tobin’s Q 值之差異及其成因之研究」，交通大學經營管理研究所碩士論文。
陳政宇 (2005)，「Tobin’s Q 對製造業廠商投資率的影響-以台灣上市公司為例」，中央大學產業經濟研究所論文。
蔡佩真 (1998),「公司成長、資本結構與公司績效之研究—以台灣上市公司為例」,清華大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
蕭麗娟 (1996),「自由現金流量、融資順位與 Tobin’s Q 之實證研究」，交通大學 管理科學研究所碩士論文。
鐘俊文 (1981),「公司市場評價與投資之關係 : 台灣之實證硏究」，台灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。


二、外文文獻
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Christopher A. Hennessy (2004)“Tobin’s Q, Debt Overhang, and Investment” The Journal of Finance, vol.59, No.4, Aug 2004.
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Fabio Schiantarelli (1995) “Financial Constraints and Investment: A Critical Review of Methodological Issues and International Evidence.” Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series, No.39.
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Hayashi (1982) “ Tobin’s Marginal Q and Averager Q: A Neoclassial Interpretation.” Econometrica Vol.50 .No.1.
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Xing Yuhang (2006) “Interpreting the Value Effect Through the Q-theory: An Empirical Investigation ” Rice University This version: July 25, 2006