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研究生(外文):Po-Hsuan Huang
論文名稱(外文):The Impact Assessment on Vulnerability and Resilience of Water Resources System under Climate Change
指導教授(外文):Ching-Pin Tung
外文關鍵詞:climate changecarrying capacity of water supplyvulnerabilityresiliencesystem dynamics model
  • 被引用被引用:6
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This study aims to access the changes between water supply systems and subjects of water demand under the influences of climate change with the analysis framework of vulnerability and resilience. First, the carrying capacity of the Touchien watershed water supply system is simulated by the water supply system dynamics model based on future climate scenarios derived from the general circulation models (GCMs) output data. Then, the gaps between water supply and demands are further analyzed. Furthermore, the quantitative indicators are applied to evaluate the spatial distribution of vulnerability of the Touchien watershed and the changes of resilience considering the impacts of climate change. The results indicate that a lower carrying capacity of the water supply system under climate change and significant increase in future water demands will lead to an insufficient water supply in the future. According to the spatial distribution of vulnerability analysis, despite that all regions in the Touchien watershed do not reached a high degree of vulnerability, some of them have an increased vulnerability due to the increase in public water demand. The regions with an increased vulnerability should have top priority to implement the adaptation strategies. The resilience indicators show that both public water resilience and agricultural water resilience have a decrease trend under climate change, which means a longer time for the water supply system to recover from a water shortage. In addition, the agricultural water resilience in first growing period is not only lower than second growing period, but also facing a greater decline. Summary of research results can explain that climate change has a serious impact on water supply system. Moreover, the assessment of carrying capacity, vulnerability and resilience are consistent for each GCM and increase the possibility of research findings. Therefore, this study worth the attentions from related water agencies which should develop adaptation actions as soon as possible.

摘要 I
Abstract III
目錄 V
圖目錄 VII
表目錄 XI
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究緣起與目的 1
1.2 研究內容與架構 3
第二章 文獻回顧 7
2.1 氣候變遷對水資源影響 7
2.2 氣候變遷對農業用水影響 10
2.3 脆弱度與回復力評估 13
第三章 氣候變遷下水資源系統評估 17
3.1 大氣環流模式與氣候變遷情境 17
3.2 降尺度 25
3.3 水文模式 28
3.4 研究區域說明 33
3.5 水資源系統動力模式 50
3.6 承載力推估 55
第四章 水資源系統脆弱度量化 59
4.1 暴露度 59
4.2 敏感度 64
4.3 脆弱度 68
4.4 頭前溪流域水資源系統脆弱度地圖 72
第五章 回復力評估方法建立 83
5.1 回復力評估 83
5.2 公共用水回復力分析結果 90
5.3 農業用水回復力分析結果 92
第六章 結論與建議 97
6.1 結論 97
6.2 建議 100
第七章 參考文獻 101
附錄一、各GCMs之水資源系統脆弱度地圖 107
附錄二、各GCMs之公共暴露度地圖 111
附錄三、各GCMs之農業暴露度地圖 115
附錄四、各GCMs之生活脆弱度地圖 119
附錄五、各GCMs之工業脆弱度地圖 123
附錄六、各GCMs之農業脆弱度地圖 127

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