臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

天然災害風險管理是一重要課題，因其發生難以預料且常會造成嚴重的損失，事前的風險分析尤為重要的一環，透過分析評估災害發生風險的程度與分布狀況，可提升事前的規劃整備與災中應變措施的效能。但各領域對風險定義分歧，也因應個別之風險特性建立不同的分析方式，常造成風險分析與規劃管理之困擾。因此本研究以天然災害風險為標的，透過對有關風險研究文獻之分析與比較研討，期能建立適用於天然災害特性之風險管理的定義及分析架構。
研究中由風險的一般性定義開始，針對不同之風險定義依特性及適用性進行分類，對天然災害多事件重複致災的特性，定義天然災害風險為:「某一受體在某一段期間內受該天然災害影響所可能產生之損失期望值」。並在比較研討數種常見的天然災害風險分析架構後，認為綜合危險度(Hazard)、暴露量(Exposure)、脆弱度(Vulnerability)三者所組成的年平均損失評估架構是較合適的天然災害風險分析架構。但此一風險分析架構內雖涵蓋受體可能產生之實質損失，卻缺少對受體災中之反應及災後復原能力之考慮，即未涵蓋受體之回復力(Resiliece)，這部分屬於對受體異質性的討論，一般是以定性的社會脆弱度(Social Vulnerability)來處理，本研究中乃提出利用標準化指標來結合定性的社會脆弱度與定量的年平均損失，以建立整合性之區域天然風險指標，並因應風險管理之需要提出年平均淹水損失圖、年平均淹深圖及綜合風險指標圖等三種風險地圖。以不同指標所呈現空間分布差異，提升風險管理決策之效益與效能。以汐止七堵地區做為研究案例，展現本研究之風險分析架構的可行性及可用性。

As natural disasters are usually accompanied by serious loss of property and lives, natural disasters risk management becomes an important issue, especially in risk analysis. With unclear and ambiguous definition of risk, there were different ways in the risk analysis and it difficult to be a basis for planning the management.
This study established an appropriate natural disaster risk analysis framework according to integrating definitions of risk and analysis frameworks of many previous risk researches. In this study, natural disaster risk was defined as expected value of natural disaster loss which combining, Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability into analysis risk. Annual Average Loss (AAL) of events with different occurrence probabilities can be a more proper index. Townships of Si-Jhih and Ci-Du were used as a study area where annual average flood loss, social vulnerability, and annual average water depth where combined to compare risk. The result showed that the addition of social vulnerability can improve the shortcomings of the annual average loss and understanding the causes of loss through the annual average water depth. Furthermore, decision makers can effective improve to achieve the purpose of reducing risk based on different aspects in advanced study.

謝誌 I
摘要 II
Abstract III
目錄 IV
圖目錄 VI
表目錄 VIII
第一章 緒論 1
1-1 研究背景與動機 1
1-2 研究目的 2
第二章 風險定義 3
2-1 風險定義 3
2-2 健康領域 4
2-3 金融財務領域 6
2-4 天然災害領域 7
2-5 風險定義的分類 11
2-5-1 以風險的成因定義風險 13
2-5-2 以風險的結果定義風險 14

第三章 天然災害風險分析架構 17
3-1 風險組成 17
3-1-1 危險度(Hazard) 17
3-1-2 暴露量(Exposure) 19
3-1-3 脆弱度(Vulnerability) 20
3-1-4 回復力(Resilience) 22
3-2 風險分析架構 24
3-3 分析流程架構 34
3-3-1 社會脆弱度 34
3-3-2 風險矩陣 38
第四章 案例研究 41
4-1研究區域 41
4-2淹水潛勢資料 43
4-3暴露量推估 45
4-4年平均損失推估 48
4-5年平均水深推估 54
4-6社會脆弱度推估 55
4-7風險圖 59
第五章 結論與建議 66
5-1結論 66
5-2建議 67
參考文獻 68

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