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研究生:安德烈
研究生(外文):Andre Moraes Dejuste
論文名稱:台灣汽車使用生質酒精的政策影響分析
論文名稱(外文):Impacts of Ethanol Policy for Automobiles in Taiwan
指導教授:吳榮杰吳榮杰引用關係
指導教授(外文):Rhung-Jieh Woo
口試委員:黃芳玫黃文琪
口試委員(外文):Fung-Mey HuangWen-Chi Huang
口試日期:2013-06-06
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:農業經濟學研究所
學門:農業科學學門
學類:農業經濟及推廣學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2013
畢業學年度:101
語文別:英文
論文頁數:172
中文關鍵詞:生質酒精台灣政策分析CO2排放量
外文關鍵詞:EthanolTaiwanPolicy AnalysisCO2 Emissions
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Recently the interest in biofuels is continuously increasing mostly due to environmental, economic and geopolitical factors. Harmful gases emissions, growing crude oil prices, and the increasing dependency on foreign oil supplies are determinant factors that motivate governments to pursue alternative fuel sources, such as ethanol. Recognizing the importance of energy as a vital component in economic development and the global commitment on the CO2 mitigation, the Taiwanese government has been continuously revising its energy policy, seeking to balance economic development, energy supply, and environmental protection. Moreover Taiwan has clearly and strongly committed to develop green energy by adopting the Statute for Renewable Energy Development, among other actions. Given this scenario, the aim of this paper is to analyze the efficiency of a hypothetical governmental policy to implement a sugarcane ethanol blending on fossil fuels in Taiwan. The impact of policy is examined mainly on CO2 emissions, balance of payments, particularly in terms of imports scenarios and land use. The analysis is based on three different scenarios for blending Brazilian sugarcane ethanol to all gasoline sold for household cars and motorcycle transportation: 5% (E5), 10% (E10) and 20% (E20); as well as on simulations of different domestic and imported ethanol shares on Taiwan supply. In order to proceed such analysis this research presents an econometric model system to estimate the demand for gasoline from the Taiwanese road transport sector, emphasizing the effects of national income and real petrol price. The model is used to perform a prediction of a 10-year forecasting horizon, consequently allowing forecast the consumption of ethanol for each scenario after its implementation along that timeline. It is found that 1 liter of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol in substitution of 1 liter of gasoline in Taiwan avoid 42.36% of GHG emissions. Furthermore the price for the fuels E5, E10 and E20 are expected to become increasingly cheaper for the period of analysis, stimulating the demand and diminishing the policies effectiveness. Despite this, the higher is the addition of ethanol in gasoline, more positive is the effect of the policy simulated. Given these and other findings for different policy scenarios, the appropriate strategies are discussed and suggested in order to contribute to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Taiwan, considering policy implications regarding external trade and land use impact.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND DEDICATION I
LIST OF ILUSTRATIONS VI
LIST OF TABLES VIII
LIST OF ACRONYMS IX
ABSTRACT 1
Chapter 1. Introduction 3
1.1 Problematization and relevance of the theme 3
1.2 Objectives 7
1.3 Justification 8
Chapter 2. Literature Review 12
2.1 Taiwan dependence on imported oil and CO2 emissions 12
2.2 CO2 emissions in Taiwan 16
2.3 GHG emissions sources in Taiwan road transportation 20
2.4 Ethanol use experience in different countries 22
2.4.1 The Japanese ethanol experience 22
2.4.2 The Brazilian ethanol experience 28
2.4.3 Other countries ethanol / biofuel experience 32
2.4.4 Analysis of trade off: ethanol / biofuel and food security 35
2.5 Reduction of GHG through the utilization of ethanol as fuel 37
2.6 Demand Models of Gasoline 39
Chapter 3. Methodology 44
3.1. Gasoline consumption forecast in Taiwan 44
3.1.1 Energy demand estimation – Empirical model 44
3.1.2 Partial adjustment treatment 45
3.1.3 Partial adjustment model to estimate gasoline demand in Taiwan 46
3.1.4 Hypothesis econometrics tests 49
3.2 Calculation of GHG emissions 62
3.2.1 GHG fuels production emissions 62
3.2.2 GHG fuels transport emissions 67
3.2.3 GHG vehicular emissions 72
Chapter 4. Results, analysis and discussions 76
4.1 Data 76
4.1.1 Data restriction 79
4.2 Results of Akaike, Schwarz and Hannan-Quinn information criteria tests 82
4.2.1 Phillips-Perron unit root test results 83
4.3 Proposed partial adjustment model for gasoline consumption forecast in Taiwan 87
4.3.1 Tests and evaluation 91
4.4 Error term analysis 95
4.5 Gasoline consumption forecast in Taiwan 97
4.5.1 Economic parameters for forecast 97
4.6 Blend ethanol policies 102
4.6.1 E5 ethanol blend policy 104
4.6.2 E10 ethanol blend policy 108
4.6.3 E20 ethanol blend policy 112
Chapter 5. Conclusions 117
5.1 Policy recommendation 119
5.2 Suggestions for future studies 120
REFERENCES 121
Appendix 1 141
Appendix 1.1 Results of Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test for the partial adjustment model 141
Appendix 2 148
Appendix 2.1 Basic alternative model to estimated gasoline demand in Taiwan 148
Appendix 2.2 Hypothesis econometrics tests for the basic alternative model 148
Appendix 2.2.1 The Prais-Winsten Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) 148
Appendix 2.2.2 Durbin Watson Statistic Test 149
Appendix 2.3 Basic alternative model results 150
Appendix 2.3.1 Durbin Watson statistic test results 150
Appendix 2.3.2 The Prais-Winsten Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) application 150
Appendix 2.3.3 Multicolinearity verification analysis for the basic alternative model 152
Appendix 2.3.4 Error Term Analysis 152
Appendix 3 Flexible price approaches policies 156
Appendix 3.1 E5 Flexible prices approach 156
Appendix 3.2 E10 Flexible prices approach 161
Appendix 3.2 E20 Flexible prices approach 167


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