摘 要
現金持有是企業流動性管理中的一項重要財務決策。宏觀經濟、行業特點和企業個體特征都是影響現金持有水准及其價值的重要因素。然而，以往的研究更多的是關注企業個體特征方面的因素。
本文通過理論分析，歸納總結了宏觀經濟對企業現金持有影響的三條路徑：1）通過影響企業的市場需求，進而影響企業的盈利能力，經營風險以及內部融資能力，而盈利狀況和經營風險的改變和內部融資能力的變化將會使得企業對其現金持有水准進行調整（主動調整或被動調整）；2）通過影響企業的融資環境，進而影響企業的資金的外部融資能力，企業為應對外部融資環境的改變，會提高或降低現金持有水准；3)通過影響企業的投資機會，進而影響企業的現金持有水准，企業為應對不同的投資機會，會提高或降低現金持有水准。並利用我國上市公司的資料，進行了實證研究，研究表明：1）在經濟周期的不同階段，現金持有具有不同的時間趨勢特征，即，在經濟下行期企業會增加現金持有，而在經濟上行期會減少現金持有。2）在經濟周期的不同階段，盈利能力對於企業現金持有水准具有相反的影響，具體而言，在經濟下行階段，盈利能力有助於企業提高現金持有水准，而在經濟上行階段，盈利能力越強的企業其現金持有水准會更低。3）沒有發現證據支援“現金持有具有規模經濟”。4）財務杠杆（用資產負債率衡量）與現金持有水准之間存在負相關關系。5）信貸市場狀況和企業性質影響上市公司的現金持有政策。
本文研究了我國的宏觀經濟變動與企業現金持有行為，提供了不發達金融市場中的企業如何應對宏觀經濟變化的證據，豐富了宏觀經濟與企業決策關系的研究。從實踐的角度看，本研究可以為宏觀經濟政策制定者和企業管理者提供決策參考。對於宏觀經濟政策制定者，如何在宏觀經濟波動或沖擊中制定有效的財政政策和貨幣政策，並對企業施加影響，需要充分考慮作為微觀主體的企業決策行為；對於企業決策者，在進行決策時，需要考慮巨集觀經濟和巨集觀經濟政策的變動，並適時調整自己的現金持有政策

Abstract
As one of the most important liquidity management policies, corporate cash holding is an important financial decision. Many factors, such as macro economy, industry characteristics and business of individual characteristics, affect the level of cash holdings. Most of previous studies concerned about the enterprise individual characteristic factors. However, in a specific period of time, such as the macroeconomic environment fluctuates violently, macroeconomic factors may become more important, because almost all enterprises will be directly or indirectly affected by macroeconomic.
In this paper, I theoretically analyzed the effects of macro economy on corporate cash holdings through three paths: 1) through the impact on the market demand. Macroeconomic affects the profitability, operating risks, internal financing ability of enterprise, which will make the enterprise to adjust its cash holdings level (active or passive adjustment); 2) through the impact of financing environment of the enterprise. In order to deal with the external financing environment change, enterprise will raise or lower the level of cash holdings; 3) through the impact on the investment opportunity. In order to grasp different investment opportunities, enterprise will raise or lower the level of cash holdings.
Investigating the listing firms of China, this paper shows that: 1 ) during different period of economic cycles, cash holdings have different time trend characteristics, namely, in the economic downturn period enterprises will increase their cash holdings, while in the upward economic period enterprises will reduce the cash holding. 2) during different periods of economic cycles, the profitability of the corporate cash holdings have opposite effects, in other words, in the economic down stage, profitability helps enterprises to improve the level of cash holdings, and in the economic upturn, stronger profitability of the enterprises the level of cash holdings will be lower. 3) no evidence to support the " cash holdings have economies of scale ". ( 4 ) there is a negative relationship between the liability rate and cash holding; 5) credit market conditions and business properties affect the cash holding policy.

目 錄
致 謝 III
摘 要 IV
ABSTRACT VI
圖目錄 IX
表目錄 X
1.1研究背景及意義 1
1.2文獻回顧 3
1.3研究樣本、資料來源和研究方法 6
1.4 論文結構安排 6
第二章 現金持有文獻綜述 7
2.1 引言 7
2.2 現金持有的存貨模型 7
2.3 現金持有的權衡理論 9
2.4 現金持有的融資優序理論 14
2.5 現金持有委托代理理論 15
第三章 宏觀經濟與企業決策、企業績效 19
3.1 宏觀經濟、市場需求與企業業績 19
3.2 宏觀經濟、企業風險與企業融資 24
3.3 宏觀經濟、投資機會和企業投資 26
3.4宏觀經濟與資本結構調整 29
第四章 宏觀經濟與上市公司現金持有水准變化的理論分析 32
4.1 宏觀經濟與現金持有: 來自市場需求的影響 32
4.2 宏觀經濟與現金持有：來自資本市場的影響 37
4.3 宏觀經濟與現金持有：來自投資需求的影響 40
第五章 宏觀經濟波動與上市公司現金持有水准變化的實證分析 44
5.1研究設計和樣本 44
5.2單因素分析：現金持有水准變化可能原因 48
5.2.1 IPO的影響 48
5.2.2 代際特征是否影響上市公司現金持有 51
5.2.3 公司規模是否影響上市公司現金持有水准 52
5.2.4行業差異是否影響上市公司現金持有水准 54
5.2.5企業性質與現金持有水准 57
5.2.6企業性質、資產負債與銀行貸款 60
5.2.7經濟增長與現金持有水准變化的關系：簡單的趨勢分析 61
5.3多元回歸分析：現金持有水准的影響因素分析 63
第六章 研究結論與政策建議 68
6.1 論文的主要結論 68
6.2 論文的主要貢獻 69
6.3研究局限和未來研究方向 70
6.4政策建議 71
參考文獻 72

圖目錄
圖 1宏觀經濟影響企業現金持有的理論路徑 32
圖 2宏觀經濟通過產品市場影響企業現金持有路線圖 35
圖 3宏觀經濟通過資本市場影響企業現金持有路線圖 38
圖 4宏觀經濟通過投資需求影響企業現金持有路線圖 41
圖 5 銀行新增貸款變化 46
圖 6 現金持有水平變化 50
圖 7 公司規模與現金持有水平 53
圖 8 現金持有的行業特徵 55
圖 9 企業性質與現金持有年度變化 58
圖 10 企業性質與資產負債率 59
圖 11 企業性質與銀行貸款水平 60
圖 12 企業性質與長期貸款比例 61
圖 13 經濟增長與現金持有水平變化 62
圖 14 經濟增長與公司現金持有水平變化 62
圖 15 經濟週期波動與現金持有變化 63
圖 16 行業-宏觀經濟相關性與現金持有 63

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